Information, methods and tools

1Climate Change and Disaster Risk

Information, methods and tools

Session 3World Bank Institute

Maarten van Aalst

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Information, methods and tools for climate risk reduction

Global warming

Rising disaster impacts

Climate risk management

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Key Source of Information on Climate Change

Global Climate Models

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Challenges/limitations of model simulations:

Uncertain future GHG emissions

Model uncertainties/shortcomings

Spatial resolution Difficulties of

modeling extremes

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Climate information at shorter timescales

Enhanced climate risk management by using information at intermediate timescale:

climate forecasts for the next few months(getting better quickly)

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Example

1-2 week global hazard forecasts

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Sources of information (1)

People/Institutions

Meteorological Office

Climate Change Focal Point (often in Ministry of Environment)

National and international science institutes

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Sources of information (2)

Online information

IPCC www.ipcc.chUNFCCC www.unfccc.int

national communications national adaptation programs of action (NAPAs)

International research institutes, such as IRI

Specialized agencies, such as WHO

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Sources of information (3)

Visualization tools

e.g. SERVIR Viz http://servir.nsstc.nasa.gov/

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Examples of methods and tools (1)

ADAPT RISK FLAGS

Red flag – adaptation issues are important and further follow up is strongly recommended Yellow flag – some concerns, which should be checked Orange flag – Not enough known to assess Green flag – No adaptation issues foreseen Blue flag – Positive action for adaptation

Project design/risk screening ADAPT (investments projects) CRISTAL (community level)

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Adapt (1)

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Adapt (2)

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Cristal (1)

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Cristal (2)

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Examples of methods and tools (2)

Portfolio screening processes, e.g. OECD DGIS ORCHID

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Orchid

Sensitization and awareness-

raisingStrategic Overview

Initial Portfolio Screening

Climate change and disasters profile

Climate change and disasters assessment

Adaptation / Risk reduction options

Adaptation options integratedRisk screening of future programming

Options assessment Cost benefit analysis

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Examples of methods and tools (3)

Climate risk management process guidance

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Key elements of climate risk reduction for DM organizations

Preliminary climate risk assessment: assess how risks are changing

Assess priorities and plan follow up Implementation within regular programs

Cross-cutting elements:

Raising awareness on changing risks; Establishing and enhancing partnerships; Documenting and sharing experiences

and information.