Institute for Ecological Economics Developing Understanding of Ecological Economic Systems Thomas...

Institute for Ecological Economics

Developing Understanding of Ecological Economic Systems

Thomas MaxwellRobert Costanza

University of Maryland

Institute for Ecological Economics

Motivation

• Unbridled expansion of human enterprise.

• Depletion of natural life support systems.

• Resource depletion -> global tensions.• Interacting complex systems.• Tremendous uncertainty.• Potentially disastrous consequences.

Institute for Ecological Economics

Integrated Problem Solving

• Vision– State of the world.– Possible future worlds (postitive &

negative).• What to tweak?

– Expected outcomes of policy adjustments.• Methodology

– Hard problem science.– Adaptive management.

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Science in Service of Society

• Comprehensive systems approach– Conceptual pluralism– Problem driver– Multiscale– Integrated modeling

• Links with policy– Modeling as consensus building tool– Communicating uncertainty

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Collaborative (Visible) Modeling

• Realistic models require multiple teams• Modelers typically not computer scientists• Stake holders must be included• Communication to a wide audience

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Three Stage Modeling Process

• Scoping models– Consensus building

• Research models– Understanding dynamics

• Management models– Exploring scenarios

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Modeling Collaboratory

• Constructivist learning.• Paradigm expansion.

– (narrow,linear,static) ->– (broad,nonlinear,dynamic)

• Conflict resolution.• Consensus building.• Collective decision making.• Develop management scenarios.

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Supporting Collaborative Modeling

• Graphical modeling tools• Modular model development• Transparent high performance

computing• Integrated data access• Integrated visualization• Variety of formalisms and frames

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Graphical Modeling

•Model viewed and manipulated graphically.

•Opens model development to non-programmers.

•Facilitates rapid development of models.

•Enforces modeling standards.

•Facilitates collaboration in model development.

•Graphical representation serves as a blackboard.

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STELLA Model

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Spatial Modeling

Framework

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CavernSoft

Collaborative

Environment

Environmental Hydrology Applications Team

Inputs to multiple models

Environmental Modeling Workbench

Integrated wirelessSensor web

CoupledBio-HydroSimulation

Spatial Modeling Environment

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Two types of modules

• Ecological Modules– No general theory.– Primary focus on modeling.– Examples:

• Macrophytes, Epiphytes, Consumers, Phytoplankton

– Modules developed in Stella/SME.

• Physical Modules– Theory well known (e.g. Navier Stokes).– Primary focus on computation.– Examples:

• hydrodynamics, atmospheric dynamics.

– Modules developed externally and linked to SME.

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Spatial Modeling Environment

• Collaborative Spatial Modeling Workbench• Includes integrated support for:

–Icon-based unit module development

–Module archiving and reuse

–Integration of multiple spatial representations

–Distributed computing

–Web-based modeling & simulation•Configuration, control, and visualization of remote simulations.

–Data access and visualization

–Real-time links to other apps (e.g. Swarm).

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Spatial Modeling Environment

STELLA

PowerSim

SME ModuleEditor

ModuleConstructor

SMML Module Library

ModuleRepository

ModuleBuilder

SimulationDriver

Code Generator

HPC

JavaPortal

Unit model Spatial modelGraphical modeling

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Module Specification Language

•Declarative

•Modular

•Fully visible structure & dynamics

•Supports encapsulation and specialization

•Separate universal specs / site-specific configs

•Platform and operating system independent

•Facilitates extensive simulation services

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Simulation Module Markup Language

• XML-Based Declarative Language

• Simulation Module Specification

• Major Classes:

–Module: Reusable component.

–Variable: Simulation atomic object.

–Action: Performs computation or data IO.

–Event: Orders the execution of Actions.

–Frame: Defines a spatial topology.

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<atom name="CONS_BIOM" id="CONS_BIOM" status="private" type="state" > <port type="input" name="CONS_INGEST" /> <port type="input" name="CONS_EGEST" /> <port type="input" name="CONS_MORT_BIOM" /> <port type="input" name="CONS_RESPIRATION" />

<dynamic event="integrate" type="code" > <code>

( ( ( CONS_INGEST-CONS_EGEST )-CONS_MORT_BIOM ) ) CONS_RESPIRATION ) </code> </dynamic>

<port type="input" name="P1_CONS_IC" /> <port type="input" name="CELL_SIZE" />

<dynamic event="init" type="code" > <doc>

CARBON BIOMASS OF AN AGGREGATED CONSUMER. (KGC). CONSUMERS EXCLUDE THE MICRO ORGANISMS WHICH ARE ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE RESPIRATION FLUXES </doc> <code>

( ( P1_CONS_IC*0.001 )*CELL_SIZE ) </code> </dynamic>

</atom>

SMML Example

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<?xml version="1.0"?>

<!DOCTYPE compound SYSTEM "http://iee.umces.edu/SME/dtd/smml.dtd">

<compound id="PLMD_module" name="PLMD_module" >

<compound id="CONSUMERS_module" name="CONSUMERS_module" location="CONSUMERS_module.xml" >

<port type="output" name="CONS_EGEST" /> <port type="output" name="CONS_MORT_BIOM" /> <port type="output" name="CI_DETR" /> ... </compound>

...

<link name="c__0" origin = "GLOBALS_module.CELL_SIZE" destination = "CONSUMERS_module.CELL_SIZE" />

<link name="c__1" origin = "DETRITUS_module.DET_AVAIL" destination = "CONSUMERS_module.DET_AVAIL" />

<link name="c__2" origin = "DOM_module.DOM_C_AVAIL" destination = "CONSUMERS_module.DOM_C_AVAIL" />

</compound>

SMML Example

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Typical State Variables

• Examples of some typical state variables:– (Dissolved Inorganic) Nitrogen, Phosphorus – Water (Saturated, Unsaturated, Surface, Snow)– Detritus– Macrophyte (Non)Photosynthetic Biomass– Consumers– Deposited Organic Matter– Phytoplankton– Epiphytes

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Agent Based Modeling in SME

• Swarm agents can populate SME landscapes.• SME-Swarm integration:

– http://iee.umces.edu/~villa/swarmsme

• Swarm classes serve as wrappers for:– SME model.– SME grid layers.– SME spatial variables.

• Two-way remote data transfer.• Built on SNI simulation server architecture:

– http://iee.umces.edu/~villa/sni

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Multi-Grid Library•Integrates multiple spatial representations

• Implements space in SME

• Major Components include:–Cell: Spatially referenced area (or volume) element.

–Grid: Distributed set of Cells + links.

–Frame: Hierarchy of distributed Grids.

–Link: Connection between Cells.•Intra-Grid: spatial contiguity.•Inter-grid: scaling relations or mappings.

–Activation Layer: Subset of Cells in a Frame.

–Coverage: Mapping:: Activation Layer -> floats.

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Spatial grid partitioned over processors

Highly parallel application

Recursive N-section: excellent load balancing

Fully transparent to user

Distributed Processing

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Model Calibration toolkit

• Built on MPE toolkit:– http://iee.umces.edu/~villa/svp/

• Calculate performance measure (MPE)– Estimate of match between model & system.– Weighted sum of tests (Bounds, Theil, Freq, etc).

• Search parameter space to maximize MPE.– Evolutionary and gradient searches.

• Params, tests, & searches configured in SME.

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SME Java Portal

•Desktop access to remote supercomputing resources

•Web-enabled ( using java servlets )

•Grid enabled ( using globus gram utility )

•Java applet <-> Java servlet <-> C++ apps

•Portal interfaces include:

–Workspace management

–Module development

–Model configuration

–Simulation initialization, control, & visualization

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WorkSpace Manager

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Documentation PanelDocumentation of selected command

Model PanelHierarchical View of model objects

Associated commands as boxes

Command PanelStructure of selected command

Property Panel Command Arguments

Configuration Manager

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Parameter Editor

Edit Simulation Parameters

Spreadsheet format

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Simulation Control

Control Execution

View Model Structure

Trace Dependencies

View Model Equations

Configure Visualization

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Associates DataSets with Viewers

Creates Viewers

Manages DataSets

ViewServer Control Panel

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2D Animation Viewer

2D Animation Control

Dynamic and manual rescaling

ColorMap editor

Data viewer (point/spreadsheet)

Export as GIF or JPG

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3D Animation Viewer

Dynamic Landscapes

Variable1 -> Altitude

Variable2 -> Color Mouse controlled

navigation

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Image Spreadsheet

Simultaneous display of variables at multiple timesteps Useful for time series comparisons

Configure: start time, time step, magnification, scaling, etc.

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View spatial data Attach to vis panels

Follows animation Export to Stat

packages.

Numerical Spreadsheet

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• Links components: – Circulation (OM3) – Ecology (SME)– Atmospheric coupling

Environmental Hydrology Applications Team

Chesapeake Bay Model

Institute for Ecological EconomicsEnvironmental Hydrology Applications Team

Collaborative Virtual Environment

Chesapeake Bay data in CVE with Cave5D/Virtual Director

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Example Applications

• Everglades Landscape Model– http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/erd/esr/elm/intro/

welcome.htm

• Patuxent Landscape Model– http://iee.umces.edu/PLM

• Baltimore Ecosystem Study– http://baltimore.umbc.edu/lter

• Illinois TES Models– http://blizzard.gis.uiuc.edu/

Institute for Ecological EconomicsEnvironmental Hydrology Applications Team

Environmental Hydrology

Institute for Ecological Economics

SME Distribution

The SME home page:

http://iee.umces.edu/SME3

Includes:– Overview.– Technical documentation.– Publications.– Source code (C++ and java).– Links