Institutional Investor Conference - West Fraser · 2016-02-17 · CIBC 19th Annual Whistler...

CIBC 19th Annual Whistler

Institutional Investor Conference January 21, 2016

2

This presentation and comments associated with it contain

forward-looking statements including statements relating to U.S.

housing recovery, the potential for constrained lumber supply,

energy-related opportunities, earnings sensitivity and estimated

annual capital expenditures. These statements are subject to

the cautionary statement which introduces West Fraser’s 2014

Annual Management’s Discussion & Analysis which can be

accessed on the Company website www.westfraser.com.

Forward-Looking Statements

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WEST FRASER

THEN

NOW

OUR GOALS

are to develop and maintain…

Excellence in

Performance and People

Leadership in our Field

Challenge and

Satisfaction

Responsibility in the

Communities in Which we

Work

Profitability

Growth

4

• Operational excellence

• Diversification

• Product differentiation

• Integration

Our Strategy

5

• Managing to ensure a committed workforce

• Cost control and efficiency

• Continuous reinvestment

• Internal and external benchmarking and

competition

• Straightforward, consistent business model

Operational Excellence

6

LUMBER 28 mills

PANELS 7 mills

PULP & PAPER 5 mills

SPF 4.0 Bfbm SYP 2.3 Bfbm Total 6.3 Bfbm

Plywood: 830 MMsf3/8” MDF: 300 MMsf3/4” LVL: 3.2 MMcf

NBSK: 570 Mtonnes BCTMP: 650 Mtonnes Newsprint: 135 Mtonnes

Product Diversification

• North America’s largest lumber producer

• Largest plywood producer in Canada

• Third largest pulp producer in Canada

7

Lumber66%

Panels11%

Pulp & Paper23%

Trend Sales Mix ($)

8

Operations diversified by geography

Geographic diversification

B.C. 39%

Alberta 24%

U.S. 37%

Lumber Capacity

9

• Wood as the best environmental choice

• Renewable resource, sustainable business

• Expanding applications

• Bioenergy, full use of the resource

Product Differentiation

10

• Lumber, panels, pulp, newsprint and energy

• Substantial fibre self-sufficiency

• Fuller utilization of resource

• Some benefits from counter-cyclicality

• Better able to respond to new opportunities

such as bioenergy

Integration (in Canada)

11

Demand - North American housing

- Residential improvements

- Chinese construction and

industrial applications

- Japanese housing

Supply - Fibre limitations

- Residual offtake

- Mill closures

- People

Efficiency - Capital investment

- Business model

Earnings Growth Drivers - Lumber

12

Returns on Lumber

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Ytd

09-1

5

EBITDA Margin (%) - Lumber

Average: 15%

13

U.S. Housing M

illio

n U

nit

s

Source: FEA, Q4 2015

Significant pent up demand bodes well for long-term recovery

Pent Up Housing Demand (conventional + mobile)

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Production Underlying Demand

14

US Housing

Single Family Share well below 30 year average Share of single-family housing starts

Source: FEA

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

70 75 80 85 90 95 0 5 10 15

30 year average share = 76%

15

Unlike Single-Family, Multi-family has Recovered

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Thousands

Single-Family (Left Scale) Multi-Family (Right Scale)

16

U.S. Lumber End Use

U.S. Lumber End-use 2014 U.S. Lumber End-use Normalized

Source: FEA and WF

Single Family Construction,

24%

Multifamily Construction, 4%

Residential Improvements,

38%

Industrial Production, 29%

Nonresidential/Mobile, 5%

Single Family Construction,

37%

Multifamily Construction, 4%

Residential Improvements,

29%

Industrial Production, 23%

Nonresidential/Mobile, 7%

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Canadian Shipments to China

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Mm

fbm

Source: Council of Forest Industries

Equivalent to 240,000 housing starts *

* Based on consumption of 11.5 Mfbm per U.S. housing start (average mix of single and multi family)

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China Imports of Logs and Lumber

Source: General Administration of Customs of The People’s Republic of China

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

M M3

Lumber Logs

19

B.C. Shipments to Japan

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Est.

Shipments 2x4 Starts

Source: Council of Forest Industries

Mmfbm Thousand 2x4 Starts

20

75

72

65

53

42

47

49

51

54 56

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Billion Feet

Total North America (R Axis) BC Interior Rest Of Canada US South Rest of US

Source: US Census Bureau & Statistics Canada

NORTH AMERICAN LUMBER PRODUCTION

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North American Lumber Capacity

22

Demand - China’s paper, tissue and packaging

demand

- Developing countries’ demand

Supply - European paper capacity closures

- European pulp capacity increases

- China pulp mill closures

- South American production

Reliability - Capital

- Technology

Earnings Growth Drivers - Pulp

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Chemical Pulp End-Use Products

Printing and Writing Papers

31%

Tissue 31%

Specialty Papers 19%

Fluff Based Products

10%

Boxboard 5%

Other 4%

Source: PPPC 2013

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BCTMP Pulp End-Use Products

Boxboard 44%

Printing & Writing 41%

Specialty Papers 8%

Newsprint 4%

Other 3%

Source: PPPC 2013

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Alberta Newsprint is the lowest cost newsprint producer in North America

and a positive contributor to the profitability of our pulp and paper business

Paper — Newsprint

Source: PPPC Cost Survey 2012

Cd

n$

/to

nn

e

North American Newsprint Cost Structure Par Exchange Rate

ANC

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• Woodwaste to produce heat and steam to dry

wood products and for electricity and steam for

pulp mills

• Woodwaste to produce electricity to be used or

sold

• Pulp mill effluent as a source for biogas-electricity

generation

• Expanding opportunities to generate and sell

electricity levering off current business

Energy Opportunities

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• Reinvest profits to lower costs, improve efficiency

through technology and improved processes

• Capital spending in 2014 of $410 million and

spending in 2015 to approximate $200 million

• Estimated 2016 spending of $300 million and

normalized spending between $150 and $225

million

• Growth through opportunistic acquisitions focused

on solid wood

Capital Strategy

28

West Fraser Capital

159

358

410

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2012 2013 2014

Capital Spending

Maintenance Timber Profit Improvement Energy

$ Million

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• Proven ability to generate strong cash flow even in

worst markets

• Consistent, straightforward business plan

• Loyal, long-term employee and management base

• Conservative financial management coupled with

proven ability to grow strategically

• Strong historical shareholder returns

Why Invest in West Fraser?

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Strong Cash Generation ($millions)

Total Ytd 09-15 2014 2013 2010-2012

Cash from Operations 1,924 329 475 419 701

Capital Expenditures 1,398 169 410 358 461

Acquisitions 238 - 208 - 30

Debt/Capitalization 17%

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Share Value Traded

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2015 2014 2013

WFT CFP IFP

Cdn$ Million

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Annualized Shareholder Return (Cdn$)

12.6%

7.4%

3.9%

7.6% 7.1%

5.3%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

West Fraser Dow S&P/TSX Competitor A Competitor B Competitor C

June 2006* – December 31, 2015

* June 2006 marked the beginning of the steep decline in U.S. housing starts

Source: TD Bank

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“WFT” – Toronto Stock Exchange

www.WestFraser.com

These materials have been prepared by Management of the

Company. No regulatory authority has approved or disapproved of

the contents of these materials. These materials do not constitute an

offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities of the

Company, and shall not constitute an offer, solicitation or sale of the

Company’s securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer,

solicitation or sale would be unlawful. Securities of the Company may

not be offered or sold in the United States absent their prior

registration or qualification or an applicable exemption from the

applicable registration or qualification requirements.

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APPENDIX

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Earnings Sensitivity to Key Variables (2014)

Estimated Earnings Sensitivity to Key Variables 1

(based on 2014 production - $ millions)

Factor Variation Change in pre - tax e arnings

Lumber price US$ 1 0 ( per Mfbm ) 61

Plywood price Cdn $ 1 0 ( per Msf ) 8

NBSK price US$ 1 0 ( per tonne ) 5

BCTMP price US$ 1 0 ( pe r tonne ) 7

U.S. – Canadian $ exchange rate 2 US$0.01 ( per Cdn $ ) 24

1. Each sensitivity has been calculated on the basis that all other variables remain constant and assumes year end foreign exchange rates.

2. Excludes exchange impact of translation of U. S. dollar - denominated debt and other monetary items. Reflects the amount of the initial

US$0.01 change; additional changes are substantially, but not exactly, linear.