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International Markets, Trade Agreements, Trends Kent Swisher, Vice President, International Programs
2019 IPPE, Atlanta, GeorgiaFriday, February 15, 2019
Overview
• Introduction • Supply/Demand• Trade War and Rendered Products• Trends
Staff
• German Davalos, Director Latin America, 15 years with NRA – Lucy Cano 15 years
• Peng Li, Director Asia, over 11 years– Teresa Hon – over 30 years
• Bruce Ross, Brussels, 11 years
Consultants:• Chile, China, Indonesia, Vietnam
Strategic Intention - Global
• Domestic and international markets – Promote the demand and market access for rendered products to domestic and international customers. Secure adequate resources from key strategic partnerships (members, federal government and strategic allies).
NRA’s Efforts
• NRA works through the US Agricultural Export Development Council
• Agricultural Trade Advisory Committee• Agricultural Policy Advisor Committee• Coalitions in WDC• Cooperation with APHIS, FAS, and USTR
U.S. Rendering Plants
= Packer Renderers = Independent Renderers National Renderers Association,
2016
Supply/Demand
U.S. Red Meat and Poultry Production
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2026
Billion pounds
Broilers
Beef
Pork
Source: USDA/ERS
Source: Projections based off of USDA ERS Projections and USDA NASS production reports
Source: USDA/FAS PS&D
Aquaculture Production
Source: 2016 State of the Worlds Fisheries and Aquaculture, FAO
Supply – Protein Meals
Demand - Proteins
Indonesia
Chile
US MBM, PBM, Porcine Meal Exports
Supply – Fats and Oils
Supply Fats and Oils
Demand – Fats and Oils
US Tallow Exports
US UCO/YG Exports
Singapore
China UCO
Global Biodiesel/HVO Production
Hydrotreated Vegetable Oils (HVO)
Global HVO Plants/Production Trend
Source: Greenea.com
Distillers Corn Oil
Changing Markets
Retaliatory Tariffs
China Retaliatory Tariffs
• January 2017 – China imposed 42.2% - 53.7% duties on US DDGS with additional anti subsidy tariffs between 11.2% and 12%
• July 6 – China imposed 25% duty on US soybeans
• August 3 - China announced additional tariffs this time including processed animal protein meals and hides – 10% for meals
• September 24 – Tariffs imposed on US processed animal protein meals at 5%
• September 24 – Tariffs imposed on US fishmeal at 25%
Immediate impact
• US DDGS exports to China dropped from over 5 million mt to under 1 million
• Soybean prices dropped 20%• Rendered protein meals?• Fishmeal?
Impact - Soy
Source: USDA/FAS Oilseeds, World Markets and Trade, Sept 18
Fishmeal Imports
• China imports around 1 mmt of fishmeal• The US exports approximately 100,000 metric
tons of fishmeal to China or 10% of total imports
Economic
Economic
US Exports of Animal Protein Meals
Source: Global Trade Atlas
USMCA
Trends - Sustainability
Trends - Information
Thank You
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