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Jean-Yves GarnierMieke Reece
International Energy Agency
The Joint Oil Data Initiative A success story in strengthening
international co-operation on statistics
Unusual volatility in oil prices…
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Evolution of oil prices ($/bl)Evolution of oil prices ($/bl)
Blame on statistics?Blame on statistics?
Political Call + Technical Answer = Basis
Bangkok2-3 April 2001
Bangkok2-3 April 2001
Decision taken to launch a 6-month
exercise
Decision taken to launch a 6-month
exercise
Riyadh17-19 Nov. 2000
“Co-operation among relevant international organisations, as well as the participating countries, in improving and timely accessing to energy data is important for market assessment and transparency.”
“Co-operation among relevant international organisations, as well as the participating countries, in improving and timely accessing to energy data is important for market assessment and transparency.”
Political
Ministers at the 7th IEF MeetingMinisters at the 7th IEF Meeting
Technical
Heads of Statistics in Paris
Heads of Statistics in Paris
Paris13-14 Nov. 2000
• There are many problems with definitions, units, methodology
• Organisation can solve some of the problems
• Involvement of countries is essential
• There are many problems with definitions, units, methodology
• Organisation can solve some of the problems
• Involvement of countries is essential
JODI started first as a 6-month exercise (JODE)
Production
Imports
Exports
Closing Change
Refinery Intake
Crude Oil
Stocks
Petroleum Products
LPG Gasoline KeroseneGas/Diesel
OilFuel Oil Total Oil
Refinery Output
Imports
Exports
Closing Change
Demand
Stocks
Simple
Definitions
Simple
Definitions
Choice of units left to organisations
Choice of units left to organisations
A Simple Format (42 data points)
A Simple Format (42 data points) Unit:
Country:Country:Month:Month:
Month -1 and Month -2Month -1 and Month -2
CountryB3
CountryB1
CountryB2
Rollingco-ordinationthrough mails,calls, meetings
Rollingco-ordinationthrough mails,calls, meetings
CountryA1
CountryA3
CountryA2
CountryD1 Country
D2
CountryD3
CountryE2
CountryE1
CountryF1
CountryF2
CountryC1
CountryC2
The initial data collection and co-ordination mechanism
International Energy Forum Conferences
JODI Conferences
Inter-Secretariat Working Group Meetings
International Energy Forum Conferences
JODI Conferences
Inter-Secretariat Working Group Meetings
Amst.May 04
MexicoMay 02
ParisDec 03
52 participating countries within 6 months,
90 one year later…
RiyadhNov. 01
MexicoMay 02
Luxem.Jan 02
ViennaApr 02
MadridJuly 00
BangkokApr 01
ParisNov 00
RiyadhNov 00
ViennaMay 01
ViennaOct 01
Amst.May 04
ViennaJan 03
ParisJuly 02
ParisDec 03
ViennaJun 04
ParisNov 05
RiyadhJan 05
ParisJul 05
RiyadhNov 05
CairoOct 03
BaliOct 04
OsakaSep 02
Luxem.Jan 06
ViennaSep 06
N YorkMay 06
RiyadhNov 06
DohaMay 06
ParisNov 07
ParisOct 08
Luxem.June 08
ViennaMar 09
QuitoJune 09
RomeMay 08
BogotaJuly 10
CancunMar 10
ParisDec 10
Ryadh2011
The need for a more structured co-ordination
CountryB3
CountryB1
CountryB2
JODI DatabaseJODI Database
CountryA1
CountryA3
CountryA2
CountryD1 Country
D2
CountryD3
CountryE2
CountryE1
CountryF1
CountryF2
CountryC1
CountryC2
The 6 organisations ask the IEF Secretariat to coordinate the initiativeThe 6 organisations ask the IEF Secretariat to coordinate the initiative
The JODI databaseFreely available and updated every month
Colored cells give an indication of data qualityColored cells give an indication of data quality
The importance of the political support: On 19 November 2005,
King Abdullah launched the JODI Database in front of 70 Ministers
A triple development
Joint Oil Data Initiative
Organisations: APEC, Eurostat, IEF, IEA, OLADE, OPEC, UNSD, Organisations
(GECF for gas)
Jean-Yves GarnierMieke Reece
International Energy Agency
The Joint Oil Data Initiative A success story in strengthening
international co-operation on statistics
Extension of the initial questionnaire (from 42 to 128 data points) to capture a full oil balance
Production
Imports
Exports
Closing Change
Refinery Intake
Crude Oil
Stocks
Petroleum Products
LPG Gasoline KeroseneGas/Diesel
OilFuel Oil Total Oil
Refinery Output
Imports
Exports
Closing Change
Demand
Stocks
NGLNaphthaProduct transfersStatistical Difference
The initial template
The extended template
Launch of a JODI Gas Initiative
GECF to collect gas data from its member countries
OPEC decided not to participate in JODI Gas
Only 24 data points (one product)
1st JODI Gas conference in Moscow in October 2010
Request from the IEF Ministerial Meeting in Cancun (May 2010) A draft spreadsheet questionnaire has been prepared The content, the format and the definitions are still under discussion between
Partner Organisations
Annual Data Questionnaire: Oil 2009 * Crude Oil Reserves: billion barrels(billion tons) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Oil production Capacity: 1000b/d Crude Capacity NGL+Other Liquids Total Oil Refining Capacity: 1000b/d Distillation Conversion+Treating Condensates (Desulfurization) Oil Installed Export Capacity: 1000b/d
Annual Data Questionnaire: Natural Gas 2009* Natural Gas Reserves: billion cubic meters (BCM) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Natural Gas Production Capacity: (BCM) Natural Gas Installed Export Capacity: (BCM) LNG(MT) Pipeline (BCM) *Note: As January 1st.
One word on JODI Capacity
Small things which make a big difference
The Smiley Faces…
A user friendly web site www.jodidata.org
A Manual for both data providers and users
1st JODI Training------14-19/08/06------OLADEIEFSIEAOPECUNSDIMF
1st JODI Training------14-19/08/06------OLADEIEFSIEAOPECUNSDIMF
2nd JODI Training------29/01-2/02/07------IEFSEurostatIEAOPECIMF
2nd JODI Training------29/01-2/02/07------IEFSEurostatIEAOPECIMF
CaracasCaracas
JohannesburgJohannesburg
3rd Training for MENA countries23-26 October 2007 in Algiers3rd Training for MENA countries23-26 October 2007 in Algiers
AlgiersAlgiers
CaspianCaspianSeaSea
APEC++APEC++
2009 Programme of TrainingOctober 2009, hosted by Turkey2009 Programme of TrainingOctober 2009, hosted by Turkey
4th JODI Training------2008------IEFSAPECIEAOPECIMF
4th JODI Training------2008------IEFSAPECIEAOPECIMF
2009 Programme of TrainingDecember 20092009 Programme of TrainingDecember 2009
2010 Programme of TrainingJuly, hosted by Columbia2010 Programme of TrainingJuly, hosted by Columbia
BogotaBogota
A world wide JODI training programme
Internship also available
A few words to concludeImproving transparency does not happen overnight and all parties need to co-operate
Thank youThank you
Developing the JODI initiative went much beyond data collecting: cooperation between organisations, industry-countries-organisations, raising the profile of statistics and statisticians, harmonisation, etc.
A few key words: commitment, compromise, hard work, expertise, political support, a need for driving force
Has JODI reduced the oil price volatility? Difficult to answer until full transparency is achieved but one thing is sure, the database is widely used and analysts no longer put the blame on statistics and statisticians…
There are still a few major issues: a few countries do not report stocks data for confidentiality reasons, reliability in some key flows and products, etc.
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