James N. Ianelli Alaska Fisheries Science Center Seattle, WA Trends in North Pacific Cod and Pollock

James N. IanelliAlaska Fisheries Science CenterSeattle, WA

Trends in North Pacific Cod and Pollock

Trends in North Pacific Cod and Pollock

Outline

Alaska pollock:Gulf of AlaskaEastern Bering SeaBogoslof and Aleutian Islands regionRussian zone

• Recent US-Russian negotiations

Pacific cod

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

Cat

ch in

Mill

ion

t North America

AsiaAsia

Donut Hole

World pollock catch 1981-2002

Pollock Fishery Areas

GOA

Kamchatka

EBS

NBS

WBSSea of Okhotsk

Aleutians

Est. 2002 Pollock Catch by area

Total: ~2.57 million t

E. Bering Sea

58%

W.Kamch.

11%

Others

4%

Okhotsk

11%GOA

2%

W.Bering

14%

Conservation Strategies Key Quota management acronyms

• ABC’s (acceptable biological catch)

• TAC’s (total allowable catch)

• OFL’s (overfishing levels)

ABCTAC Catch

GOA

Gulf of Alaska

Gulf of Alaska pollock age 3+ biomass trend

0

2,000

4,000

1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002

Thousands of tons

2002 survey estimate low—but 1999 yearclass well above average

Gulf of Alaska summaryWinter 2002 survey estimates low…

2001 TAC 105.8 thousand tons,

2002 TAC 58.25 thousand tons,

2003 likely to be between 40-60 thousand tons

1999 year class well above average

Steller sea-lions likely to affect TAC-setting in this

area

Eastern Bering Sea Pollock

GOA

Kamchatka

EBS

NBS

WBSSea of Okhotsk

Aleutians

Eastern Bering Sea Pollock Biomass trends

Highly dependent on recruitment

• Both highly variable

Three surveys in 2002:

• Limited shelf acoustic survey in winter

• Summer trawl and acoustic surveys

Issues :

Extent of straddling stock

Steller sea lions

Fishery Characteristics for 2002

Within-year production (E. Bering Sea)k-tons

0

250

500

25-Jan 05-Feb 15-Feb 25-Feb 07-Mar 17-Mar 27-Mar 06-Apr 16-Apr 26-Apr

Cu

mu

lati

ve

po

lloc

k c

atc

h

199719981999200020012002

2002 Winter fishery distribution

Catch size distributionJan-June July - Dec

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

Length (cm)20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

Length (cm)

2002 survey data…

Pollock density from bottom-trawl survey

Bottom temperature and pollock density…

Bottom trawl survey biomass estimates

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

Year

Mill

ion

s o

f to

ns

Bottom-trawl survey abundance at age

2000

Age

2001

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

20021992

1992

1992

2000

Age

2001

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

2002

1996

1996

1996 2000

Age

2001

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

20021992

1992

1992

2000

Age

2001

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

2002

1996

1996

1996 2000

Age

2001

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

20021992

1992

1992

2000

Age

2001

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

2002

1996

1996

1996

Results from integrated model Recruitment estimates…

Year class index

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

Nu

mb

ers

at

ag

e 1

EBS Biomass trend

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Th

ou

san

ds

of

ton

s

Change in age-composition estimates

2001

2002

2003

9897

96

9594 93

92

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Last year's assessment

Current assessment

9998

97

96

9594 93

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

3 4 5 6 7 8 9

0

3,000

6,000

3Age

0

3,000

6,000

3Age

2000

1999 1998 19971996

1995 1994

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

3 4 5 6 7 8 9

199519961997199819992000

2001

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

3 4 5 6 7 8 9Age

Age

Steller sea lion population update

2002 est.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

1990 1995 2000

Sea Lion issues NEPA, ESA compliance problems by NMFS

1. Species still listed as “endangered”

2. Action that may affect recovery of species

identified (fishing)

3. Consultation may be required for the Gulf of Alaska

pollock (and other) fisheries

Ecosystem issues Committee reviewing North Pacific TAC-setting

process relative to ecosystem needs

• Report due to Council in December

• May look to Antarctic system (CCAMLR) for meeting

perceived ecosystem requirements

Environmental factors increasing in application to

all fish-stock assessments

• Long-term and short-term productivity

Other issues

Marine Stewardship Council

Final announcement delayed to early next year

• Eastern Bering Sea pollock apparently passed ok

Essential Fish Habitat requirements

Pollock fishery important since mid-water

Cooperative acoustic data collection established

To monitor pollock abundance in Critical Habitat

Acoustic return…

Relative sA: Survey vs Fishery

Aleutian Islands Region

GOA

Kamchatka

EBS

NBS

WBSSea of Okhotsk

Aleutians

Aleutian Islands Region

Pollock stock surveyed poorly

Bottom trawl gear

Every 2 years

2002 estimate ~360,000 tons (> double estimate from 1990s)

Pollock as bycatch only since 1999 for sea lion concerns

Last year quota expectation for 2002 ~25,000 tons

• NOT! Set to bycatch only again…

Pollock prognosis for 2003: bycatch

Aleutian Islands recent surveys

Basin or “Donut Hole” Region

Central Bering Sea Convention

Some experimental fishing/surveys Poor catch rates

Bogoslov survey index of this stock still low Estimates of over 1 million tons may trigger an International

Basin fishery

Recruitment patterns appear to have changed

Non contiguous parties wish for a quota

• Closures since 1992

• Recovery not apparent

Bogoslov survey estimates

Millio

ns o

f to

ns

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Donut-hole(Central Bering Sea)

Stock indicator

Russian Zone

Catch, Survey information

Central Bering Sea consultation

GOA

Kamchatka

EBS

NBS

WBSSea of Okhotsk

Aleutians

Russian stock condition:Navarin basin biomass estimates

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Hydroacoustic

Bottom trawl

Russian stock condition: Western Bering Sea biomass trend

Thousands of tons age 2+

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1970 1980 1990 2000

Russian stock conditionSpawning stock size in Sea of

OkhotskThousands of tons

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

US-Russian bilateral meetings“The disputed agreement of 1990 was signed by Eduard Shevardnadze, then USSR Minister of Foreign Affairs, and James Baker, US Secretary of State, for the USA to overtake an approximate 50,000 square kilometres of sea from Russia. The strip abounds in fish. Russia's State Fishing Committee experts estimate the annual catch of Pacific pollock alone at 200,000 tons. The agreement cost Russia an approximate 2.8 million tons of fish at more than US$1.4 billion, complain experts.”

Sept 2002 Moscow ICC meeting report

“… The U.S. delegation made clear that the United States is not prepared to review or renegotiate the maritime boundary treaty, though the U.S. was prepared to discuss other areas of cooperation.”

Observed catch

Russian quota breakdown for 2002Total 930,000 tons

N Okhotsk

Sea

19%

W Sakhalin

7%

N Bering

39%

W Bering

1%

W

Kamchatka

27%

E Sakhalin

1%

Kuriles-

Kamchatka

6%

Pollock Summary Gulf of Alaska

2001 summer and 2002 winter survey estimates low Good sign of 1999 year class (impact expected by 2004) TAC prognosis again about ~50 kt

Aleutian Islands Stocks Increasing Steller sea lion issues close to resolution TAC may be re-instated ~35,000 t

Aleutian Basin - Bogoslof: Fishery continues to be unlikely in near future

Eastern Bering Sea Stock outlook on track in near term, ABC expected to decline 1996 year-class not as prevalent in recent surveys 2003 TAC likely to be around 1,480 kt

Russia: Sea of Okhotsk and other areas may be undergoing species shift

• Herring Quota reductions may increase illegal fishing

Pacific Cod Abundance trends

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

West BeringNorth BeringGulf of AlaskaEast Bering

Sea lion issues also concern Pacific cod

P. cod and Atka mackerel considered with pollock as

essential for sea lions

Issue was the level of concentrations during spawning

seasons within Critical Habitat

Due to the higher complexity, management problems more

difficult

• Multiple gear-types and fishing sectors

Pacific Cod Outlook 2002

Gulf of Alaska projected ABC/TAC stable or slight

increase

Eastern Bering Sea ABC/TAC likely to be flat

• Strong year classes evident but survey estimate lower

Russian Pacific cod considered stable and small

EBS Pacific cod biomass trend

0

400,000

800,000

1,200,000

1,600,000

1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003

Survey observation

Model Estimate