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Ken WrightSensis Corporation
January 28, 2010
Modeling and Simulation Challenges and the New
Vehicle NRA
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Background Analyze the combined impacts of advanced vehicles and
NextGen
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Vehicles
Cruise @ M 0.78, 35k – 40k ft
2000 nm
Cruise @ M 1.641k ft to 53k ft
4000 nm
1200 nm
Cruise @ M 0.5, 25k ft
CESTOL
SST
LCTRUAS
750 nm
400 nm
VLJ
Cruise @ M 0.28, 15k ft
Cruise @ M 0.6, 35k ft
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Background (Continued) Timeframe
– 2025– 2040 (roughly 2 times today’s traffic levels)– 3X (3 times today’s traffic levels)
Tasks– Design vehicles– Develop usage scenarios– Compute delay– Compute environmental impacts– Compute metroplex impacts– Compute safety impacts– And much more
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New Vehicle Regional Airport
and AirspaceDesign Impacts
AvDemand
FACETSIMMOD
JPDO-providedNextGen
configuration
Regional Airport and
Airspace Performance
NextGen CONOPS,SAE 1845 AIR procedures (<10kft),
BADA Performance (>=10kft) conv. AC
EDS
Vehicle Market Penetration, Fleet Mix Changes
AEDTSystem
Wide
TARGETS
SafetyImpacts
APMT
ACES
PDARS Safety Metrics
GTSafety Models
New Vehicle Aircraft Design
Impacts
BADA AC Performance, New VehiclesD
eman
d fil
es
4D Trajectories System-wide
Dem
and
BA
DA
Dem
and
BA
DA
BA
DA
AC
Per
form
ance
Procedure Design
Arrival, departure procedures for new
vehicles
Pro
cedu
res
Pro
cedu
res
BA
DA
Procedures
Dem
and
Pro
cedu
res
BA
DA
BA
DA
AEDTRegional
4D Trajectories Regional
BA
DA
Pro
cedu
res
FlyabilityAnalysis
TSAM
PopulationGrowth
TravelCosts
Air
Tax
iD
eman
d F
ile
BADA AC Performance, New Vehicles
BA
DA
Flight Demand Growth
JPDO-providedNextGen
configuration
Key:Text in black Input or output to a model
Text in blue Result from a model
Pro
cedu
res
NAS-Wide Airport and Airspace Performance with and without New Vehicles for NextGen
EmissionImpacts
NoiseImpacts
SafetyMetrics
Sensis New Vehicle NRA Model
Interaction Diagram
Em
issi
ons
Inve
ntor
ies
Noi
se
Con
tour
s
Model Infrastructure
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The Focus of this Presentation is ACES
• To do NAS-wide simulation in ACES we need:• BADA Data• Schedules/Capacities
• ACES tracks used by AEDT to compute environmental impact
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General Modeling Simulation Observations Designing good experiments is tough
– Results often seem obvious– Difficult to translate concepts into hypotheses that leverage model
strengths
Difficult to spot erroneous results– Large datasets, complex interactive models– Figuring what’s going on below the surface is difficult
Some modules don’t work well with large datasets– Results not significantly impacted– New features can increase run time, without affecting results– ACES 5.0 vs ACES 6.2 compatibility issues
Challenge: Demand Generation
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JPDO-Provided Demand Sets
Huge delays at LAS and ATL due to capacity-demand imbalance dominatesystemwide-results
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ACES-Specific Observations
MPAS (physics model) currently can’t fly unconventional vehicles
– Cruise-Efficient STOL Aircraft (cruises too slow)– Supersonic transport (cruises too fast)– Tiltrotor (takes off like a helicopter)
Tail-tracking
Terminal area tracks
Conflict Detection and Resolution
Weather obstacles (Back-up)
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Tail-Tracking One-third of all delay is propagated delay
ACES tail-tracking doesn’t quite work
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Sensis Itinerary-Creation Algorithm gives 5-6 Stages per Airframe
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Increase in delay due to tail-tracking too small to be realistic
Aircraft is in two placesat the same time
1 2
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Short flights show discontinuous tracks
Flights having great circle distance less than about 60 nm fly discontinuous “X” routes
Affects 3,000 to 3,500 ACES flights in 2040 dataset (about 3.5% of total)
Because flights fly longer routes than necessary, amount of time spent airborne is too long.
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Flight from TEB to LGA is Airborne for 31 Minutes.Average speed = 21 mph
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Conflict Detection and Resolution
Not used in New Vehicle project
Causes about as many conflicts as it resolves
CDR Causes Collision
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CDR Causes Collision
CDR Causes Collision
CDR Causes Collision
CDR Causes Collision
CDR Causes Collision
CDR Causes Collision
CDR Causes Collision
CDR Causes Collision
CDR Causes Collision
CDR Causes Collision
CDR Causes Collision
CDR Causes Collision
CDR Causes Collision
CDR Causes Collision
CDR Causes Collision
CDR Causes Collision
CDR Causes Collision
CDR Causes Collision
CDR Causes Collision
Aircraft sense impending 5-nm conflict
CDR Causes Collision
Aircraft move to avoid 5-nm conflict
CDR Causes Collision
Aircraft move to avoid 5-nm conflict
CDR Causes Collision
Boom!
CDR Causes Collision
CDR Causes Collision
CDR Causes Collision
CDR Causes Collision
CDR Causes Collision
CDR Causes Collision
CDR Causes Collision
CDR Causes Collision
CDR Causes Collision
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3X-Dataset No restrictions on international arrivals leads to large sectors
exceeding capacity limits
2086
Name CapacityZNY87 25ZBW01 35ZHU79 25ZNY90 25
Foreign arrivals choke offdomestic departures. (175k flights)
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Conclusions Big project; tested lots of models; pushed limits of ACES and AEDT
It’s probably more fun to be a developer than a user
Coming up with interesting experiments is tough– Experiments should leverage model strengths to find novel results
Difficult to spot erroneous results
Some modules/capabilities did not work as expected for our large-scale experimental configuration
Ken Wright
Sensis Corporation
Questions?
Back up
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Rerouting around Weather Mostly worked, but number of weather polygons scenario could use
was unnecessarily limited
Peculiar reroutes due to lack of airborne holding capability in ACES
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Clusters of Storm Cells (>=50 DBZ)
Replaced by Rectangles
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Clusters of Storm Cells (>=50 DBZ)
Replaced by Rectangles
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Final fix blocked
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Final fix blocked
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Final fix blocked
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It appears that the flight turns around only when it bounces off another weather cell
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