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Lecture -- 7 -- Start
Outline
1. Science, Method & Measurement2. On Building An Index3. Correlation & Causality4. Probability & Statistics5. Samples & Surveys6. Experimental & Quasi-experimental Designs7. Conceptual Models8. Quantitative Models9. Complexity & Chaos10. Recapitulation - Envoi
Outline
1. Science, Method & Measurement2. On Building An Index3. Correlation & Causality4. Probability & Statistics5. Samples & Surveys6. Experimental & Quasi-experimental Designs7. Conceptual Models8. Quantitative Models9. Complexity & Chaos10. Recapitulation - Envoi
Quantitative Techniques for Social Science Research
Ismail SerageldinAlexandria
2012
Lecture # 7:Conceptual Models
Our World Is One Of Rapid Social Change
AND IN MANY PARTS OF THE WORLD …
DEATH IS A DAILY AFFAIR…
So Let’s Design A Conceptual Model Of Social Change
A Model of Social Change:
Understanding the Dynamics
CULTURAL ASPECTS
PROGRESS STAGNATION BREAKDOWN
NEW SOCIAL POSITION
VALUES INSTITUTIONS
START POSITION
CULTURAL ASPECTS
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
PROGRESS STAGNATION BREAKDOWN
NEW SOCIAL POSITION
VALUES INSTITUTIONS
START POSITION
CULTURAL ASPECTS
SOCIAL STRUCTURE
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
PROGRESS STAGNATION BREAKDOWN
NEW SOCIAL POSITION
VALUES INSTITUTIONS
START POSITION
CULTURAL ASPECTS
SOCIAL STRUCTURE
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
PROGRESS STAGNATION BREAKDOWN
NEW SOCIAL POSITION
VALUES INSTITUTIONS
START POSITION
CULTURAL ASPECTS
SOCIAL STRUCTURE
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
PROGRESS STAGNATION BREAKDOWN
NEW SOCIAL POSITION
VALUES INSTITUTIONS
START POSITION
TRANSACTIONS
CULTURAL ASPECTS
SOCIAL STRUCTURE
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
PROGRESS STAGNATION BREAKDOWN
NEW SOCIAL POSITION
SOCIAL CHANGE
VALUES INSTITUTIONS
START POSITION
TRANSACTIONS
CULTURAL ASPECTS
SOCIAL STRUCTURE
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
PROGRESS STAGNATION BREAKDOWN
NEW SOCIAL POSITION
SOCIAL CHANGE
VALUES INSTITUTIONS
START POSITION
TRANSACTIONS
CULTURAL ASPECTS
SOCIAL STRUCTURE
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
PROGRESS STAGNATION BREAKDOWN
NEW SOCIAL POSITION
SOCIAL CHANGE
VALUES INSTITUTIONS
START POSITION
TRANSACTIONS
CULTURAL ASPECTS
SOCIAL STRUCTURE
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
PROGRESS STAGNATION BREAKDOWN
NEW SOCIAL POSITION
SOCIAL CHANGE
VALUES INSTITUTIONS
START POSITION
TRANSACTIONS
CULTURAL ASPECTS
SOCIAL STRUCTURE
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
PROGRESS STAGNATION BREAKDOWN
NEW SOCIAL POSITION
SOCIAL CHANGE
VALUES INSTITUTIONS
START POSITION
TRANSACTIONS
CULTURAL ASPECTS
SOCIAL STRUCTURE
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
PROGRESS STAGNATION BREAKDOWN
NEW SOCIAL POSITION
SOCIAL CHANGE
VALUES INSTITUTIONS
START POSITION
TRANSACTIONS
CULTURAL ASPECTS
SOCIAL STRUCTURE
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
PROGRESS STAGNATION BREAKDOWN
NEW SOCIAL POSITION
SOCIAL CHANGE
VALUES INSTITUTIONS
START POSITION
TRANSACTIONS
CULTURAL ASPECTS
SOCIAL STRUCTURE
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
PROGRESS STAGNATION BREAKDOWN
NEW SOCIAL POSITION
SOCIAL CHANGE
VALUES INSTITUTIONS
START POSITION
TRANSACTIONS
EXTERNAL INFLUENCES
EXTERNAL INFLUENCES
Within This Process
• Change is being accelerated• External drivers of change are
increasingly important• The cultural dimension is where and
how the mediation with the new and the external occurs
• Culture cannot be underestimated
A Sub -Model Of Cultural Change:
Understanding the Dynamics
A Three -Tiered Model
Explaining Cultural Dynamics and How Cultures Change
Intellectual Domain
Perceptual Domain
Physical Domain
Theoretical Ethics
Intellectual Domain
Perceptual Domain
Physical Domain
Theoretical Ethics
Practical Ethics
Intellectual Domain
Perceptual Domain
Physical Domain
Theoretical Ethics
Practical Ethics
Social Praxis
Intellectual Domain
Perceptual Domain
Physical Domain
Theoretical Ethics
Practical Ethics
Social Praxis
Intellectual Domain
Perceptual Domain
Physical Domain
Theoretical Ethics
Practical Ethics
Social Praxis
Social Values
Intellectual Domain
Perceptual Domain
Physical Domain
Theoretical Ethics
Practical Ethics
Social Praxis
Social Values
Individual Behavior
Intellectual Domain
Perceptual Domain
Physical Domain
Theoretical Ethics
Practical Ethics
Social Praxis
Social Values
Individual Behavior
Intellectual Domain
Perceptual Domain
Physical Domain
Theoretical Ethics
Practical Ethics
Social Praxis
Social Values
Individual Behavior
Intellectual Domain
Perceptual Domain
Physical Domain
Quran
Theoretical Ethics
Practical Ethics
Social Praxis
Social Values
Individual Behavior
Intellectual Domain
Perceptual Domain
Physical Domain
Quran
Sunna of the Prophet
Theoretical Ethics
Practical Ethics
Social Praxis
Social Values
Individual Behavior
Intellectual Domain
Perceptual Domain
Physical Domain
Quran
Sunna of the ProphetGreek and Latin influences
Theoretical Ethics
Practical Ethics
Social Praxis
Social Values
Individual Behavior
Intellectual Domain
Perceptual Domain
Physical Domain
Quran
Sunna of the ProphetGreek and Latin influences
Local Influences
Theoretical Ethics
Practical Ethics
Social Praxis
Social Values
Individual Behavior
Intellectual Domain
Perceptual Domain
Physical Domain
Quran
Sunna of the ProphetGreek and Latin influences
Local Influences
Modernizing Influences
Theoretical Ethics
Practical Ethics
Social Praxis
Social Values
Individual Behavior
Intellectual Domain
Perceptual Domain
Physical Domain
Quran
Sunna of the ProphetGreek and Latin influences
Local Influences
Modernizing Influences
Theoretical Ethics
Practical Ethics
Social Praxis
Social Values
Individual Behavior
Intellectual Domain
Perceptual Domain
Physical Domain
Quran
Sunna of the ProphetGreek and Latin influences
Local Influences
Modernizing Influences
Theoretical Ethics
Practical Ethics
Social Praxis
Social Values
Individual Behavior
Intellectual Domain
Perceptual Domain
Physical Domain
Quran
Sunna of the ProphetGreek and Latin influences
Local Influences
Modernizing Influences
Physical Change
Theoretical Ethics
Practical Ethics
Social Praxis
Social Values
Individual Behavior
Intellectual Domain
Perceptual Domain
Physical Domain
Quran
Sunna of the ProphetGreek and Latin influences
Local Influences
Education
Modernizing Influences
Physical Change
Theoretical Ethics
Practical Ethics
Social Praxis
Social Values
Individual Behavior
Intellectual Domain
Perceptual Domain
Physical Domain
Quran
Sunna of the ProphetGreek and Latin influences
Local Influences
Mass Media
Education
Modernizing Influences
Physical Change
Theoretical Ethics
Practical Ethics
Social Praxis
Social Values
Individual Behavior
Intellectual Domain
Perceptual Domain
Physical Domain
Quran
Sunna of the ProphetGreek and Latin influences
Local Influences
New Ideas
Mass Media
Education
Modernizing Influences
Physical Change
Transactions and Trust
Transactions And Trust
CULTURAL ASPECTS
SOCIAL STRUCTURE
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
PROGRESS STAGNATION BREAKDOWN
NEW SOCIAL POSITION
SOCIAL CHANGE
VALUES INSTITUTIONS
START POSITION
TRANSACTIONS
EXTERNAL INFLUENCES
EXTERNAL INFLUENCES
Transactions
There was outstanding work done on this by Coleman in his magisterial Foundations of
Social Theory
James S. Coleman(1926 – 1995)
Barter Exchange
A B
g + s
g + s
Exchange with Promise to Pay
g + s
Pa
A B Time 1
g + s
Pa
A B Time 2
Exchange with third party promise to pay
g + s
Pa
A B Time 1
g + s
Pa
B C Time 2
g + s
Pa
A C Time 3
Exchange with promise of a Central Bank
g + s g + s
g + s g + s
A Central Bank
E
B D
C
Pa Pa
Pa Pa
Pa Pa
Pb Pd
Cashless System with Central Clearinghouse
B
E
A
C
D
g + s g + s
g + s g + s g + s
g + s
Clearinghouse
Role of Party Machine in Political Exchange
Legislation
Votes for reelection
Votes for legislators
Money and jobs
Legislation
Money
Machine
Voters
Business Legislators
Party Machine as Credit Institution in the Political System
Money
Voters
Business Legislation Legislators
VotesMachineas a clearinghouse of credit
Transaction involving voters, TV, interest groups and legislative candidates
Voters
Interest groups
Television
Legislative candidates
Performers
Entertainment
Attention of voters
Money
Promises
Votes
Money
Attention of voters
Entertainment
Access PromisesMoney
Cultural Transactions
Tipping Points
Systems crash when you cross Tipping Points
Testing Steel Rods
Apply Tension,
Pull on them till they break
Stress(load)
Strain(elongate)
Stress(load)
Strain(elongate)
Stress(load)
Strain(elongate)
Stress(load)
Strain(elongate)
Stress(load)
Strain(elongate)
Stress(load)
Strain(elongate)
Effe
ctiv
enes
s
Number of Connections
Effe
ctiv
enes
s
Number of Connections
Effe
ctiv
enes
s
Tipping Point
Number of Connections
Effe
ctiv
enes
s
Tipping Point
Number of Connections
AnotherTippingPoint ?
The Problem
• We are not sure of the shape of the graph
• Is it the whole graph we are looking at?
• We don’t know where we are on the graph!
For example:
But we need to start…
• But we have to start somewhere…• We need the work being done on
sustainable indicators now• Incomplete knowledge is better than
no knowledge at all• So lets improve…
BUT…
Purely descriptive models can help in basic understanding of
possible causalities and identification of likely
intervention points
Predictive models are needed for policy analysis. This requires quantification.
Quantitative Analysis complements Qualitative
analysis and frequently under-girds it.
Measuring Trust in Transactions
Can we quantify such things as trust ?
Can we model it?
Trust-worthiness
and potential loss and potential
gain
Probability Probability Probability Probability
of of of of
trustworthinesstrustworthinesstrustworthinesstrustworthiness
Potential loss / potential gain
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
00 2 4 6 8 10
Confidence mean
Brother
Friend
Lover
Formula for potential Loss/Gain
P = chance of receiving gain (the probability that the trustee is trustworthy)
L = potential loss (if trustee is untrustworthy)
G = potential gain (if trustee is trustworthy)
Decision: yes if P is greater than L
1-P G
indifferent if P equals L
1-P G
no if P is less than L
1-P G
Trust in Government
Economic growth and trust in Government are closely related
Trust in Government4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
00-4 -2 2 4 6 8
Growth of per capita GDP (percent per year)
Russia1995
Czech Republic
1995x
x
Social Capital and Social Integration and Disintegration
Social Capital and Social Integration and Disintegration
Topics for another discussion
For Now…
Are we sinking? Or Swimming?
We want everyone swimming
We want to all fly together…
Thank You
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