View
217
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
1/48
CLIMATE & ENERGY PAPER SERIES 2010
MAPPING CLIMATE CHANGE AND
SECURITY IN NORTH AFRICA
JOSHUA BUSBY, KAIBA WHITE, AND TODD G. SMITH
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
2/48
2010 Te German Marshall Fund o the United States. All rights reserved.
No part o this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any orm or by any means without permission in writing
rom the German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF). Please direct inquiries to:
Te German Marshall Fund o the United States
1744 R Street, NW
Washington, DC 20009
1 202 683 2650
F 1 202 265 1662
E ino@gmus.org
Tis publication can be downloaded or ree at http://www.gmus.org/publications/index.cm. Limited print
copies are also available. o request a copy, send an e-mail to ino@gmus.org.
GMF Paper Series
Te GMF Paper Series presents research on a variety o transatlantic topics by sta, ellows, and partners o the German
Marshall Fund o the United States. Te views expressed here are those o the author and do not necessarily represent the
views o GMF. Comments rom readers are welcome; reply to the mailing address above or by e-mail to ino@gmus.org.
About GMFTe German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF) is a non-partisan American public policy and grantmaking institu-
tion dedicated to promoting better understanding and cooperation between North America and Europe on transatlantic
and global issues. GMF does this by supporting individuals and institutions working in the transatlantic sphere, by conven-
ing leaders and members o the policy and business communities, by contributing research and analysis on transatlan-
tic topics, and by providing exchange opportunities to oster renewed commitment to the transatlantic relationship. In
addition, GMF supports a number o initiatives to strengthen democracies. Founded in 1972 through a gi rom Germany
as a permanent memorial to Marshall Plan assistance, GMF maintains a strong presence on both sides o the Atlantic. In ad-
dition to its headquarters in Washington, DC, GMF has six ofces in Europe: Berlin, Paris, Brussels, Belgrade, Ankara, and
Bucharest. GMF also has smaller representations in Bratislava, urin, and Stockholm.
Transatlantic Climate Bridge Initiative
Tis paper would not have been possible without unding rom the ransatlantic Climate Bridge, an initiative o the German
Ministry or Foreign Aairs to connect and support those working to address the challenges o climate change, energy
security, and economic growth at the local, the state, and the ederal level in the United States and Germany.
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
3/48
Mapping Climate Change and Securityin North Africa
Climate & Energy Policy Paper Series
October 2010
J W. B
Uv Tx A
K WUv Tx A
T G. S
Uv Tx A
J W. B LBJ S P A Ck R S. S C I S Lw, Uv Tx A. K W GIS R S. S C I S Lw, Uv Tx A. T G. S P.D. S LBJ S P A Uv Tx A.
T k G M F . T wk , , U. S. A R L U. S. A R O / W9NF-9--77. T j C C A P S (CCAPS),://../ T vw G M F U S.
Exv S . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
P C C-R S Cq . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3W A V A N A? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Nv C V N A . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
C P I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
B . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
4/48
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
5/48
Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa iii
C z v x
q
. S v vk
,
w x q -
v. A
N A, w,
,
M,
S M N, x
S H A. NA E
x, w
x -
w A v
E.
N A -
v x -
. I
w w v
, , ,
w x k . T
wk w
, w w v
v, A v-
v , ,
, , .
T
w
v z
w v ,
, wk. UG I S (GIS), w
v,
x v
A. W w v
v w v
N S k x ,
w .
T v v
k. T M-
k x
- z,
v w w -
k
v v. P
v -
z x, , , v
v w w E
v ,
w k v
- S, C, N,
S. S k v-
x M
M, A, E.
B v, w x
w
N A:
, , ,
.
W ,
- v , , v.
W w ,
v k k
v
x, .
S w-v
k k x
w . I N A,
wv, w S
C A D, w w-
v v
v - z.
Executive Summary
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
6/48
The German Marshall Fund of the United Statesiv
A , - A
E w 5 (
) k
v w
k -
w. Mv, ,
w
A E. C
w x
w v, w
v - A E.
T
. Hwv,
w
w wk v
, N, v
, q
. A
k,
v
w E W.
F, w , w
-
, w
q
v
. C w v-
C, E, E, N, S,
S
. A
N S , v
v.
I ,
w
v k w wk v
w
. T w E
k S, C, N. W
v NGO
v k , q
v
,
v v
- . O
N A
M k M T v
v v
w . S
-
v
z w
.
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
7/48
Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa 1
C z v x
q .
S 7, v
k w . S
v vk -
,
w x -
q v.
Ev
w
, UN S C, E C-
, v v.
A N
A, w
k M-
, S M
N, x S H
A. N A
E x, w
x-
w A v E.
N A -
v x -
. I
w w v
, , ,
T v , w . T UN S C 7. I U S, N I C N I A 8. TB v k w . Jv S, EUH Rv F P, w (H ; F 8; S 8; Bk 7; UN S- C 7).
.
C x k ,
x v w-
w.3 I v v-
, w
v z
z. M v -
(L, M, E),
z -
(S).
A v q
, w x (N) xv (A). O
v x v ,
S E. T
wk w
, w w v
v, A v-
v ,
, , . F
E U S, w
, v -
w E I
v .
C N A v
v
Lv . v w w 5 ,7 . T , w. I 5, 35 w . I k M, A, T, x (Lv . 8).
3 M j N A v - w .6C ( 4F) -, 98-. T IPCC F A- v j .8C ( AB ) (IPCC 7). N A j v wk w v w Uv Tx Jk S G. S 43 .
Introduction
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
8/48
The German Marshall Fund of the United States2
. L A x , w N
w x . I
,
E Sz C w S
G A
.
T
w
v z
w v ,
, wk. UG I S (GIS), w
v,
x v
A. W w v
v w v
N S k x
-
, w
.
T wk x
k k v-
v
.4 A , w k v v
v . W
w k v x
v
, .
I S w vw w
v
N A, k , ,
, x w v. I S
w - v-
N A,
4 F - , W ; A-M -; CENTRA T S C 9;N I C 9.
w x ,
, v v.
T, k v
v
k
. F v,
w w N S
x v S 3 x
w
v
j q
.
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
9/48
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
10/48
The German Marshall Fund of the United States4
S k w v
k k, w -
w v w-v . A
v x
w w. I
w w, w -
w ,
v
.3
A x
, S C A D
(SCAD), v , k, , w-v N A
Hx S .
Lv .
3 C 7.
995-9
j
( F ).
W
v - z.
F w
v v q
x -
z k . W v
q ( w
x z)
v
995-9 ( F ). T
w k k ,
k v
v j .
B, wk x
FIGURE 1
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
11/48
Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa 5
w v,
.4
MigrationC w
,
, w
w .
A -
v -
, -
w- k
. I w
k v. S,
4 T v v q q z, v -z ( ) ( 5). T SC A D w v Uv N Tx, I S CHx.
-v, v
-
.5
F E,
N A, v
-,
.6 A
, -S
A v N
A - E, w
Fx, w
E -
v 5.7 Gv
v w v
v
-S A,
N A
E (
S D v ).
I x, v v w
, w
v v
, ,
, x w v.8 T
v v w
, w w
wk. W
5 M ; M ; C . F GMF- , ://www..///-_vw?.=65
6 N I C .
7 S ://www.x../
8 M 5; Wz Mv 9.
FIGURE 2
Sources: Authors calculations based on the Social Confict in Arica Database andUNEP/GRIO-Europe
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
12/48
The German Marshall Fund of the United States6
q ,
q -v w w
. M
w
.9
O w
k , w
v.
W v - -
w k
, v w v ,
, vw
w
9 W Bk .
S G 6.
vv, k
w - . T , v-
v , Zw
v S A.
I E x, w
w v
w. N -
E,
z N
A w E k w -
G, N, S 7; R, J, S 8.
FIGURE 3
Source: Global Migrant Origin Database 2007
FIGURE 4
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
13/48
Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa 7
v v.
D
, v
w w
. F, w, A-
k -
E. S, E
A .
T G M O D
x v
w v w.3 S
k, k
, v
w
v . F, -
x w
. D
,
A
E. T j 6
A v v
A . C Iv
(4.6 ), Bk F (7. ), S
A (6.4 ), Tz (5.6 )
.
T 4 N A, S,
H 335.5
7, w x
w
. F 3 4 w w
w . T
, 33 , A
. F x, .6 M
w , 487, w C Iv
438, w Bk F. T
H Rv E C E C 8; S 9.
3 S ://www..///___.
A, M, T, wv v w,
F. T .46 ,
A. O
, .46
M E. .49 E-
, 8, S, , E-
. S A
E ( v ) S
(6,), w E I (59,)
S A (,) ( F 5, x ).
O 6 N A
, .3 , 8 , - E (x
F) ( F 4).
F 6 (x ) w A
9 E, w 3
x 4.68
4 . F-w
.46
A, M, T
v F. T 39
F 6.3
4 v 6. S, -
z F , v
P 5 x
. A
w v M w,
w F S S
. A v
M E M
v M -
k w. O
v F v
w A. A q C w 9 w
Iq
N E . M F
x R
E E. Nw -
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
14/48
The German Marshall Fund of the United States8
z , v A,M, T k v w
v
w F -
k z
A -9 .
I x N A,
kw w
w k v -
( v ),
v. T w v
x 3 , z w -v.
A Mx
v
995-5, v
w
. Ex ,
-5
Mx ( w
v
), Mx
U S
w w .4
6.7 8,
.4
A k k
-
N
A E
, w
k . I
w A
-
4 F, K, O .
FIGURE 5
Source: Global Migrant Origin Database 2007
Source: Global Migrant Origin Database 2007
FIGURE 6
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
15/48
Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa 9
Mx, A
q .
Hwv, Mx
.5 Nw 9
Mx
w v
.6 U 9 , w
-
w k
, w
w w.
7
I w ,
j w w
4.7 N A
E 7 5.6 7.
5 ( F 7).
Lk A, A
E w w
j
6.9 7 8.5
9 5. T,
E, N A( ) w 55
w 7 48
w 7 5. O , A
M w 6
w N A E
5 ( Ax A).
T N A w
E -
, v , w
, 3,
5 v ://.../__/CCMq.
6 9 v ://.../v//
7 T v w - w.
34, 5. I A
, -
E w 485,
.9 5 ( T ).8
S, A
j v
8
5. O N A -
E, w
vw E , w
(A, E, S) 5. C-
w, -
N
N, K, U 5 (v
8 T Mx. T v , AFI , w z v w.
FIGURE 7
Source: Authors calculation based on data rom GlobalMigrant Origin Database 2010
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
16/48
The German Marshall Fund of the United States10
w
).
O , ,
N A
Mx Mx
. T
w v , v
w ,
v. M ,
v w
. Mv,
. M
w k
2020 2050
Percent change
in ag. yield
(scenario A1FI)
Emigration due
to change in
agricultural yield
Percent change
in ag. yield
(scenario A1FI)
Emigration due
to change in
agricultural yield
2020 Total To Europe 2050 Total To Europe
A .45 -36 -3 -.53 5 4
C -.93 8 -.96 8 3
Dj .3 - -.76
E -.37 73 7 -.63 4 39
E -.43 6 -.56 34
E -.83 8 38 -.3 8 67
L -.4 6 -.59 3 8
M -.89 3 -.8 3 5
M -.76 6 -.43 7 3
M -. -.5 4 3
N -.7 33 -.34 55 4
S -.37 34 9 -3.3 55 4
S -.9 9 -.9 38 7
T .5 - - -.66 7 44 N A
369 3 ,5 34
A-w v -.84 ,573 485 -.4 9,66 ,9
*
TABLE 1
Estimates of Future Migration Due to Crop Yields
Source: Authors calculations based on crop-yield projections rom Rosenzweig and Iglesias 2009, population projections romUN Population Fund and elasticity rom Feng et al. 2010
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
17/48
Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa 11
w v .
N, x -
. C ,
, k
E
w. O , -
k E, K, U, N
E. B
w, N A
k A M
E, F, . M-
v, q A
E, w
w w A w
A w k
.
I ,
w
- E A,
w x .
T , v
A w x, w
v A E w
w . A
w k v w
,
v -
w-
.
T
v -
z v-
w w . T
k w w
q w ,
w - ,
(w - - v)
w A
w.
M w w
v k v
v . R v
, ,
; k
w . I
v v,
v E
w
v.
W v
v
x ,
kw
. I , -
, wv
, w w
v z .
Terrorism
P N A, A, v
-
. A G T ,
3,676 k A w 995
8, (,95 v) k A (44 v)
k S. T, 4
N A 55
k (,88 v).9 M
9 S ://www...//
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
18/48
The German Marshall Fund of the United States12
, , w wv v k
W v. Hwv,
wk S-
M w k A Q
I M (AQIM),
A, z k M,
N, M. W
v -
k. F
N A, k w
v
q.
U, x k
w . I
w , x w v,
w k
k v. T
v,
v w
.3
W
v v
v z
w k W .
Gv , , -
wk, ,
S-M
z.3 A w
v v v v
A Q -
.3 S v k
v W ( U.S. 3 K Mkv 3; L K 8. T, k .
3 RAND 7.
3 K-B 9. F v w AQIM, F .
) w
w
v
.33
N, v N ,
v T ,
AQIM, , w N
, k
W.
A v w k
x w w -
v v
v . T
x v v, v
w
v w
w .
I x , w w
A v q, q-z
, x -
z. U - G
T D 995 8,34 w N A
k
q k
v .
T v
-
w ( F 8).35
I w
33 CENTRA T S C 9, 35.34 T w - Sw S. A wk- w Uv Tx C Gk, M Ov, SjDk.
35 A , v w. G T D,START, J , .
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
19/48
Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa 13
k. T O BL
v, w v
x
. O
q, w w
q
, -
.
Extreme Weather Events and
Complex Emergencies
C x
v
q x w
v, ,
, . W
v x-
, ,
- w
.
D- q x
, w, v,
q z
. R, w v
. T U.S.
w z wk 5
H K. G w q
7,
w A 9.
T - z v v v w
v , w q
q -
. F x, v -
, --v S
99
U S
, O R
H. T 99 , W
w
k C A (
H M 998) H ( 4
).
T Pk
-
,
U.S. w
A. W
w v
, w k
w- x
. Ev W ,
, z
Pk wk
, N w x w
w w.
A v
w w-
FIGURE 8
Sources: Calculations by the authors based on data rom the Global Terrorism Data-base and UNEP/GRIO-Europe
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
20/48
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
21/48
Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa 15
Country Number of
Disasters
Number of
Floods
Number of
Droughts
Number of
Storms
Max.
Killed
Max. Total
Affected
Max.
Homeless
A 3 5 3 9 () 45,43 () 3, ()
C 9 () 8, () 45, ()
Dj 7 5 5 () 34, () ,5 ()
E 5 3 (w) 3, () 3, ()
E 4 .3 ()
E 4 34 6 498 () .6 ()
79,()
L
M 6 3 3 5 () () 4,586 ()
M 4 5 () () , ()
M 9 5 73 () 75, ()
N 3 9 3 7 () 3.58 ()
46,47 ()
S 6 4 ,3 () 3.3 ()
3, ()
S 5 5 () () , ()
T 4 4 6 () 7, () =, =, w= wv
TABLE 2
1995-2008 Climate-Related Disasters in North Africa
Source: OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
22/48
The German Marshall Fund of the United States16
A v - k v -
) -
, ) w
k , 3)
v
, 4)
v . O
v
w
v, w.
T q k v.4
W
v v -
q :
Climate-RelatedHazardExposure.Ata
, v x
- z.
PopulationDensity.Policymakersgenerally
w v. A
q,
x - zw -
k.
HouseholdandCommunityResilience.The
w
w v
v v
z v
- k ,
, . C w
k v q
k
v v. W
, v w
4 T v B ..
Where Are the Vulnerable Areas in
North Africa?2
k v z z .
GovernanceandPoliticalViolence.Weather
q x
v,
q -v z v
w
v ,
w,
w x w
v. A w w Pk
J , w v v w
v v. Ak k
M w x
. V
v
v , k
S 99,
j . P w
v
v v v
z v .
O v-
k w -
x - z j
w , w v -
,
v w v.
E k x,
,
, v v
. I -
k, v
k. W
vw x
w -
w . W
w w
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
23/48
Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa 17
- w
v .
W k, w
. W v
q w v
w
v .
T q v
A, w. S, w
A v , v ( F 9
).
F k, w v
k v. I
FIGURE 9
Composite Vulnerability Baskets and Indicators
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
24/48
The German Marshall Fund of the United States18
, k w
q.
W x-
- z w
,
/ ,
, v v. A , w
w v
( x +
). W w
x ,
w w w
v w
k.
A v -
, x
z v -
v
v w
w . I N A
. T
, /, v-
/v k w v
v.
W x - -
x. M
v A
w w w k . F , w
w x -
z ( T 3 ). W
v
wk w
j w A
.
Findings
O z x w
M M, A,
T v w
k E, w w
E, S (
F ).
Variable (weight) Unit Source Years
C q(.67)
Ev , UNEP/GRID-E 975 - 7
C w q(.67)
Ev , UNEP/GRID-E 975 - 7
F q (.67) Ev UNEP/GRID-E
D v (.67) N v UNEP/GRID-E 98 -
W (.67) P . q k
x
UNEP/GRID-E 997 - 8
Lw v z(.67)
C w v
USGS EROS
TABLE 3
Climate-Related Hazard Exposure Data
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
25/48
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
26/48
The German Marshall Fund of the United States20
FIGURE 11
Variable (weight) Indicator (weight) Source Years of Data Availability
E (.5) L , ( 5 v) (.5)
WDI - 7; T G,G-B, S
S , () (.5)
WDI 4 - 8; 998 A; 999 S; G-B
H (.5) I ( , v)
CIESIN 99-3
L x () x (.5)
WHO 6
D N(.5)
P 5w (.5)
CIESIN 99-3
P w - v k w (.5)
WHO 6; C V S
A H(.5)
P x (PPP . $) (.5)
WHO 6; S
N w ( , ) (.5)
WHO - 6; S
TABLE 4
Africa-Wide Household and Community Resilience Data
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
27/48
Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa 21
A v
x w M T v-
w v( w q) N C,
w E S
( F ).
F, w w k v
v, w M-
v
v
S H A, v
v w
v .
F 3, N A v-
, w -v
v
v v, x
,
( F 3). A w
v,
k v
v ( T 5 ).
FIGURE 12
FIGURE 13
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
28/48
The German Marshall Fund of the United States22
Variable Indicator (weight) Source Year(s)
Gv Rv-
V A (.) W Gv I 8
Gv RC
Gv Ev (.) W Gv I 8
O ExA
Gz Ix (.) KOF Ix Gz 9
Gv S P V (.) P IV Pj - 9
N S Y (.) P IV Pj 855 - 9
P V P Mv A-
K Ev D S (KEDS) 995 - 8
TABLE 5
Governance and Political Violence Data
W w -
, S S , w
v v M, T,
M v w v v
( F 4).
P k , w
w E v
, w k v-
- S,
C, N, S. S k
v x M-
M, A, E (
F 5).
W w k w
x -
z (
x - z)
, w v v w x
- z v-
w w ( F
6). T N C
w S. W E
v , w
M T v-
z v w v
v
v
w v.
S q v-
. W v
v ? D w v -
v
w ? T j
, w .
W v,
w Uv-
Tx w
.4 F x, w w k j
w 98-
4-6 , w w
4 O K Ck N Vz Jk S G. T WR F (WRF) NC A R (NCAR) NO A A. T AB .
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
29/48
Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa 23
FIGURE 14
E, w S, C,
M w k x
wv , A x w w (
F 7).4
W w k
, w M-
, T L
w x
, w A x .43
S M, S,
S w x , w
E S x-
w ( F 8).
4 H wv w x 5 F.
43 D v w v .
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
30/48
The German Marshall Fund of the United States24
FIGURE 15
FIGURE 16
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
31/48
Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa 25
FIGURE 17
FIGURE 18
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
32/48
The German Marshall Fund of the United States26
B w v v v, w w v
x -
z v
v .
Niger
I , N x w
8 N Rv,
N. N 8 N
w v
, . P C
M w . T
w v
v wk
.44
N w -
. I F , z w
, w
w
w.45 T v
w w vv .
N, N v
(N k 35 53 A
v x, 9 UNDP
H Dv Ix, N k
w).46
N v
v . N v
8 k (w
F ) A Ak N
44 J ; T ; Nw C A.
45 S .
46 S ://..///
w S D A . I , F
Av j .
T I
3 4 5,
, k N
w.
Hwv, N
k .47 Ev N
v w w
, v , v F
, w k - S
w A Q I M (AQIM),
F v
,7 v
.48 W k
kw w, w
w v N -
x .
A AQIM,
N S v
T w
v - -
. T T, w v
z v
, 7
9, v
w. C
9 , w w
v .
W T z k
, v
99 ,
995, 998, 6.49
TT v
w AQIM. F x, T w
47 Lw M .
48 R , .
49 Hkwz 5; AN 7; UPI 9.
Narratives of Climate Vulnerability
in North Africa3
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
33/48
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
34/48
The German Marshall Fund of the United States28
U Hw) A T B K D N G/
Mv C, B (
F 9). W w
N Rv G,
G.5 O
T Az ( F 9
N Rv B
v).53
T N , , Q v, -
v -
, , ,
. T , -
x. T v
wk v ,
, w v w
x w
v w, , k -
.
Sudan
T D w S
UN S G B
K- w w, k
k z
w
S v
Jjw . W
v
- w S
. D v
v D
v. W
5 DLR .
53 FEWSNET .
v v w ? P,
w v .
Lk , S
. T v v
J . W
v , x v
v w
v S. F
v w
98 99, v w
v . I 9, v , v
N-S
3, .54 A v
, A v
w w j S
w N. O , N
M S K B N,
;
,
w
S v v w.55
I x, v
vw , k
N, k
x v w
, w
w S v
. A S v
, k v
x ,
J, x . I
v w , S
v . Mv, -
S, - S
54 G 9.
55 Swz 9; I C G .
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
35/48
Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa 29
FIGURE 20
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
36/48
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
37/48
Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa 31
A -q , v
v v
z w -
. I
, k
k v v
, w D A C
W .
T w
k -
q k - v. A w v ,
v v
k z .
B ,
w
. A
,
. T x-
v, v w
q
v
. Ev
, w
.
I v , w
v v-v .
T N A v-
q ,
, ,
w
. F ,
v v
v,
v
wk , ,
. O
N A
, wk
. A -
, v A w-
w v x
w v
. W -w
w v
w q ,
v k
k .
A ,
w
, v w
q
. T w ,
, w , -
, , -
.
A v ,
v
w
x - z.
T w E k
v, w v N
A M
x z
v
v
v ( -
). B , S H, v M, x x
v w
, k v-
w z w w
,
j .
Conclusion and Policy Implications
4
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
38/48
The German Marshall Fund of the United States32
O , :
C, N, S, S, -
v w E. O
, v
k w. S, w
, ,
,
w .
C k M T,
x ,
k q .T v .
T w
v
.59
T q S w
x w v
v w ,
.
O w
w x v
- v
v-
NGO v
w E.
Hwv, v
, v NGO
v - . Ev
v ,
-- x
w .
A ,
- v
v , w
k .
59 T v (K 9, , ).
W v , w w :
. F
v
v
w E k
S, C, N.
Buildbasicgovernmentcapacityinthose
v v
v - .
SupportNGOandlocalgovernment
v w ,
, -
, w .
. B v w N
A v M
v
v
Focusoninformation-sharingand
z v w -
z.
Developbetterinformationresources
v N A
.
W
q , v
k z
. Pvv
v -v
w . A
, v vv
v w,
v -
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
39/48
Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa 33
w . B v v v
wk v ,
( -
, w , v
, v )
w . H, v-
v w
.
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
40/48
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
41/48
Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa 35
AFP. . Thousands lee south Sudan loods,A 3 [ S 8, ]. Av
://www../w//
/ALqM5jH73GDO5Q9xqW3K-
B48Ew.
A-M, I. . E. I
Climate Change and National Security, D.
M: Gw Uv P.
AN. 7. Niger-Mali Tuareg Unrest, M 9
[ S 9, ]. Av ://
www..///NE_TUA..
Bk, M. 7. Climate Change - the
Gathering Storm, A 6 [ J 8, 7].
Av ://www../_
4/__w.?_=47794.
B, C. 9. Southern Sudan loods
displace thousands. C C C, J
[ S 9, ]. Av
://www../.
?CID=599.
B, Dw. 7. P Ak: TI Eqk I C. The
Journal o Conlict Resolution 5 (5):75-743.
B, Hv. . Climate not to blame or
Arican civil wars. P N
A S, S 7 [
S 6, ]. Av ://www.
.////8/3/57397#
-.
B, Hv, N P G, O
M T. 8. I C
C A C. W Bk.
B, J. 7. C C N
S: A A A. Nw Yk: C
F R.
Bibliography
5
. 8. W C A W?C C U.S. N S. Security
Studies 7 (3):468-54.
B, J. 9. F I? Pv,
Wk S, C C I Conronting
Poverty: Weak States and U.S. National Security,
S. R, C. G C. P. W-
, DC: Bk I P.
B, J, T G. S, K W,
Sw M. S. . Locating Climate Insecu-
rity: Where are the Most Vulnerable Places in Arica?
S C I S Lw,
A [ S 6, ]. Av
://..//_
//9/.?839563.
C, K M., J G, J.R. MN,
J P, P O, L F, R. J
W, Ax T.J. L, J S,
R Wz, Dk Mx. 7. The Age
o Consequences. CSIS/CNAS, Nv [
O , ]. Av ://www..
////75_q.
.
CENTRA T, S C.
9. North Arica: The Impact o Climate Change
to 2030: Geopolitical Implications. N I-
C, D [ S 5,
]. Av ://www..v//
PDF_GIF_/_/9_
___..
CNA C. 7. National Security and the
Threat o Climate Change [ J 8, 7]. Av-
://..//.
C, P. 7. The bottom billion: why the
poorest countries are ailing and what can be done
about it. Ox; Nw Yk: Ox Uv
P.
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
42/48
The German Marshall Fund of the United States36
C, S. . Developing AdequateHumanitarian Responses. GMF, J [ O
, ]. Av ://www../
/-/C_MAH_EV..
D M E R. . Nw
w T Q S
, A 3 [ S 7, ]. Av-
://www../Nw+-
+w+T++++Q+
+S+-3643.
W, Ax 7. Is Climate Change the
Culprit or Darur?SSRC, J 5 [ J
8, 7]. Av ://www../
/7/6/5/------
/.
DLR. . Flooding along the river Niger in August
2010, A 4 [ S 7, ]. Av-
://www.zk..//56.
F, Sz, A B. K, M
O. . Lk
, MxUS -
Proceedings o the National Academy oSciences 7 (3):457-46
FEWSNET. . Signiicant increase in livestock
losses due to heavy rains. USAID, S
[ S 7, ]. Av
://www.w.//P/N_
__9__..
F, J-P. . Could Al-Qaeda Turn
Arican in the Sahel?C Ew
I P, J [ S 7,
]. Av www.w.
//_q_..
F, T. 8. T H
P S C I H
S C E I
G W. D N I.
G, J. 9. Violence Grips SouthSudan as Vote Nears. New York Times, D
[ S 8, ]. Av
://www../9///w/
/..
G, N P, R N, I
S. 7. Climate Change and Conlict: The
Migration Link. I P A, M
[ O , ]. Av ://
www..///69/CWC_Wk_
P_C_C..
G T D, START, J
, [ O , ]. Av
://www...//
H, W. .An eective response to
climate change underpins our security and pros-
perity.F Cw O,
S 7 [ O 8, ]. Av-
://www..v.k//w/-
w/?vw=S=933444.
Hx, C S., S M. G. 7.
T T: C C CvC S-S A. Political Geography
6 (6):695-75.
Hx, C, I S. . A
R: R V, H-M
D, S C A. I Climate
Change and Security Conerence. T,
Nw.
Hkwz, A. 5. The Tuareg in Mali and
Niger: The Role o Desertiication in Violent Conlict
ICE C S, A [ S 7,
]. Av ://www../
//..
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
43/48
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
44/48
The German Marshall Fund of the United States38
Lv, M. . Climate-Security Linkages Lost inTranslation. Nw S B, S 3 [
S 6, ]. Av ://w-
..//9/---
-k-..
Lv, M A., B A, M
Bk, C C, B Fk, Bz Fk,
P G, M J, R L,
V M, K MM, Sv Mz,
M Mz, T P, R P,
C Tk, C V, W
W, X X, G Y. 8.Assessment o Select Climate Change Impacts on U.S.
National Security. C I E
S I Nwk (CIESIN), C
Uv, J [ J , 8]. Av
://www...//
C_S_CIESIN_J_8_v_...
Lv, M A., C Tk, C
V, E D, M
H. 5. Freshwater Availability Anoma-
lies and Outbreak o Internal War: Results rom a
Global Spatial Time Series Analysis. H S
C C C [ A 6,
6]. Av ://www.../
//Lv__..
Lw, Dv, A M. .
Areva says Niger Imouraren startup delayed.
R, F 6 [ S 7, ].
Av ://..//v-
Nw/AFJOE6PL56.
M, P. . Climate Change, Agricultural
Development, and Migration. G M
F, J [ O 8, ]. Av www..//-/PM_
V..
M, S F. . Climate Change and Inter-national Migration. GMF, J [ O ,
]. Av www..//
-/M_V3..
M, N. 5. Ev R: A
E S I. 3 E F,
P, 3-7 M.
N I C. 9. North Arica:
The Impact o Climate Change to 2030 [
S 6, ]. Av ://www.
.v//PDF_GIF_/_/
3__..
. . E F C C
C- M N A
I. Population and Development Review 36
():48-4.
N, P, Mj R. 8. N
D Rk V Cv C.
International Studies Quarterly 5 ():5985.
N, R, N P G. 9.
IPCC - x. P I S A, F 5-8,
Nw Yk.
Nw C A. . Niger: Getting
ood in by truck, boat, camel, and cart, A 7
[ S 9, ]. Av ://
www.k./D/9775..
R, C, L J, I S
8. Climate Change, Migration and Conlict.
W Bk S Dv G [
S 4, ]. Av ://-
.wk./EXTSOCIALDEVELOP-MENT/R/SDCCWkP_M-
C..
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
45/48
Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa 39
RAND. 7. Ungoverned Territories: Under-standing and Reducing Terrorism Risks [
O , 7]. Av ://www..
///7/RAND_MG56..
R. . Five French Said Kidnapped
in Niger, S 6 [ S 9,
]. Av ://www../
//9/6/w//-
k--.?x==x
x=849743-I9EEI75NTqQ.
. . Niger: France Urges Citizens
to Leave Mining Region, S 7 [
S 9, ]. Av ://www.
.//9/8/w//8-
N.?_==.
S, I, K Sk G.
6. R S Cv W. Inter-
national Organization 6 ():335-366.
Swz, A. 9. Scenarios or Sudan:
Avoiding Political Violence Through 2011. U
S I P, A [ S
9, ]. Av www..///SR8_..
S, Dv. .Military junta seizes power in
Niger coup. Guardian, F 9 [ S
9, ]. Av ://www..
.k/w///9/--j-
.
S, Jv. 8. Climate Change and Interna-
tional Security: Paper rom the High Representa-
tive and the European Commission to the Euro-
pean Council. E C, M 4
[ J 8, 8]. Av ://www.
../D/_D//-
D///99387..
S, Sk P. 9. Climate Change,Migration and EU Security. C H,
Nv [ S 6, ]. Av
www...k/v//w-
/-//67//66.
T, O M, H H,
Hv B. . D, P Ex-
, Cv W. I International Studies Asso-
ciation Annual Convention. Nw O, LA.
T, W. . Road rom Juba and
Nimule to Uganda on course. E Nw, A
3 [ S 9, ]. Av
://www.w./85/-j--
--.
T, Mk. .Audio slideshow: Nigers
double disaster. BBC, A 3 [ S
9, ]. Av ://www...k/
w/w-99798.
UN S C. 7. Security Council Holds
First-Ever Debate On Impact O Climate Change
On Peace, Security, Hearing Over 50 Speakers. Nw
Yk, U N. U N, A 7[ J 8, 7]. Av ://www.
./Nw/P//7/9...
UPI. 9. Cease-ire truce reached with Niger
rebels, M 6 [ S 7, ]. Av
://www../T_Nw/9/5/5/
C----w-N-/
UPI-9958443588/.
V, Dv. 7. W R W? The
National Interest, Nv/D [
O , ]. Av www.-
./A.x?=6.
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
46/48
The German Marshall Fund of the United States40
Wz, M, K Mv. 9. ClimateMigration Will Aect the Worlds Security. C
A P, D 8 [
S 6, ]. Av ://www.
.//9//__
v..
W, G W. . T M:
M, T, A, L. I Climate
Change and National Security, D. M:
Gw Uv P.
W Bk. .Managing the Social Dimensions
o climate change in MENA: Climate change and
human mobility [ S 6, ]. Av-
://www../_/O/
WB-AFD_CCM_CN.
.
W F P. . Number O Hungry
Quadruples in Southern Sudan Amidst Conlict and
Drought, F [ S 9, ].
Av ://www.w./w/w-
/--q--
----.
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
47/48
8/8/2019 Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa
48/48
OFF I C E S
Recommended