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Market Briefing:Currencies
Yardeni Research, Inc.
February 1, 2021
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
eyardeni@yardeni.com
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
aquintana@yardeni.com
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
February 1, 2021 / Currencies www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Trade-Weighted Dollar 1Euro & Pound 2Swiss Franc & Krona 3Yen & Won 4Canadian & Australian Dollars 5Real & Peso 6Rupee & Rupiah 7Ringitt & Yuan 8Baht & Pesos 9Lira & Ruble 10Peso 11Rand & Hryvnia 12Misc. Exchange Rates 13-14
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2285
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
JP MORGAN NOMINAL BROAD EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE(2010=100, daily)
2/1
* Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States.Source: JP Morgan.
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Figure 1.
73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2360
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
12/31
12/31
FED’S TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEXES(daily)
Major*(3/73=100)
Broad**(1/97=100)
* Major index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange rates of the US dollar against the Euro Area, Australia, Canada, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland,United Kingdom,
** Broad index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange rates of the US dollar against the Euro Area, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China,Colombia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Spain, Saudi Arabia,Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, United Kingdom, and Venezuela. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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Figure 2.
Trade-Weighted Dollar
Page 1 / February 1, 2021 / Currencies www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.70
.85
1.00
1.15
1.30
1.45
1.60
1.75
.70
.85
1.00
1.15
1.30
1.45
1.60
1.75
APPD NIRP APP+
QT
APP-Forever
PEPP
PEPP+
2/1
EUROZONE: US$/EURO
D = ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro (7/26/12). NIRP = negative interest-rate policy (6/5/2014).APP (1/22/15). APP+ = expansion and extension of APP (3/10/16, corporate bond purchases started 6/1/16). QT (12/31/18). APP-Forever (11/1/19)20 billion euros per month. PEPP (3/18/20) 750 billion euros open-ended asset purchases. PEPP+ (6/4/20) expanded by 600 billion euros.
Euro (1.21)
200-day moving average. Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 3.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 221.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2/1
UK: US$/POUND
200-day moving average
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 4.
Euro & Pound
Page 2 / February 1, 2021 / Currencies www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 222.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
.9
.8
.7
.6
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
.9
.8
.7
.6
2/1
SWITZERLAND: SWISS FRANC/$(inverted scale)
Swiss Franc (0.90)
200-day moving averageSource: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 5.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2211.5
10.5
9.5
8.5
7.5
6.5
5.5
11.5
10.5
9.5
8.5
7.5
6.5
5.5
1/29
SWEDEN: KRONA/$(inverted scale)
Krona (8.36)
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 6.
Swiss Franc & Krona
Page 3 / February 1, 2021 / Currencies www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22160
140
120
100
80
60
160
140
120
100
80
60
Z A
QQE QQEE NIRP
YC
1/29
JAPAN:YEN/US$(inverted scale)
Yen (104.69)
200-day moving averageNote: Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy. A = Markets start to anticipate Abenomics. QQE is Quantitative and Qualitative Easing.QQEE is the expanded and extended version of QQE. NIRP = Negative interest rate policy. YC = Yield curve targeting.Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 7.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 222000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
1/29
SOUTH KOREA: WON/US$(inverted scale)
Won (1118.80)
200-day moving averageSource: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 8.
Yen & Won
Page 4 / February 1, 2021 / Currencies www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 221.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
.9
.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
.9
.8
1/29
CANADA: C$/US$(inverted scale)
Canadian Dollar (1.28)
200-day moving averageSource: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 9.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 222.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
.8
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
.8
2/1
AUSTRALIA: A$/US$(inverted scale)
Australian Dollar (1.31)
200-day moving averageSource: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 10.
Canadian & Australian Dollars
Page 5 / February 1, 2021 / Currencies www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 226.0
5.6
5.2
4.8
4.4
4.0
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
.8
.4
6.0
5.6
5.2
4.8
4.4
4.0
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
.8
.4
1/29
BRAZIL: REAL/US$(inverted scale)
Real (5.46)
200-day moving averageSource: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 11.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.00
.05
.10
.15
.20
.00
.05
.10
.15
.20
1/29
MEXICO: EXCHANGE RATE(dollars per peso)
Peso (0.05)
200-day moving averageSource: MSCI and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 12.
Real & Peso
Page 6 / February 1, 2021 / Currencies www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2285
75
65
55
45
35
25
85
75
65
55
45
35
25
2/1
INDIA: RUPEE/$(inverted scale)
Rupee (73.04)
Source: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 13.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2220000
15000
10000
5000
0
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1/29
INDONESIA: RUPIA/$(inverted scale)
Rupia (14030.00)
yardeni.com
Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 14.
Rupee & Rupiah
Page 7 / February 1, 2021 / Currencies www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1/29
MALAYSIA: RINGGIT/$(inverted scale)
Ringgit (4.04)
Source: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 15.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20228.4
8.0
7.6
7.2
6.8
6.4
6.0
5.6
8.4
8.0
7.6
7.2
6.8
6.4
6.0
5.6
2/1
CHINA: YUAN/US$(inverted scale)
Yuan (6.46)
200-day moving averageSource: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 16.
Ringitt & Yuan
Page 8 / February 1, 2021 / Currencies www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2260
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
1/29
THAILAND: BAHT/$(inverted scale)
Baht (29.87)
200-day moving average
yardeni.com
Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 17.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2260
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
2/1
PHILIPPINES: PESOS/$(inverted scale)
Pesos (48.07)
200-day moving average
yardeni.com
Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 18.
Baht & Pesos
Page 9 / February 1, 2021 / Currencies www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 228.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
.5
.0
-.5
-1.0
-1.5
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
.5
.0
-.5
-1.0
-1.5
1/29
TURKEY: LIRA/$(inverted scale)
Lira (7.30)
200-day moving average
yardeni.com
Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 19.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2290
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
1/29
RUSSIA: RUBLE/$(inverted scale)
Ruble (75.45)
200-day moving average
yardeni.com
Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 20.
Lira & Ruble
Page 10 / February 1, 2021 / Currencies www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2290
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
1/29
ARGENTINA: PESO/$ (inverted scale)
Peso (87.26)
200-day moving average
yardeni.com
Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 21.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22900
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
1/29
CHILE: PESO/$)(inverted scale)
Peso (732.28)
200-day moving average
yardeni.com
Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 22.
Peso
Page 11 / February 1, 2021 / Currencies www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2219.5
17.0
14.5
12.0
9.5
7.0
4.5
2.0
19.5
17.0
14.5
12.0
9.5
7.0
4.5
2.0
1/29
SOUTH AFRICA: RAND/$(inverted scale)
Rand (15.05)
200-day moving average
yardeni.com
Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 23.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
10
20
30
40
0
10
20
30
40
2/1
UKRAINE: HRYVNIA/$(inverted scale)
Hryvnia (28.13)
200-day moving average
yardeni.com
Source: Haver Analytics.
Figure 24.
Rand & Hryvnia
Page 12 / February 1, 2021 / Currencies www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
AQQE QQEE NIRP
YC
1/29
JAPAN: US$/100YEN(daily)
Yen (0.96)
Note: A = Markets start to anticipate Abenomics. QQE is Quantitative and Qualitative Easing. QQEE is the expanded and extended version of QQE.NIRP = negative interest rates. YC = Yield curve targeting.
200-day moving average
Source: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 25.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222.2
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
.9
.8
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
.9
.8
1/29
FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES(inverted scale)
Canada(C$/US$) (1.3)
Australia(A$/US$) (1.3)
Source: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 26.
Misc. Exchange Rates
Page 13 / February 1, 2021 / Currencies www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
1/29
SWITZERLAND: SWISS FRANC/EURO
Source: Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 27.
Misc. Exchange Rates
Page 14 / February 1, 2021 / Currencies www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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