Measuring Regional Economies: Visualising the data Dev Virdee Head of Regional Economic Analysis...

Measuring Regional Economies: Visualising the data

Dev Virdee Head of Regional Economic Analysis DivisionOffice for National StatisticsUnited Kingdomdev.virdee@ons.gov.uk

The Office for National Statistics – our role

• To improve understanding of life in the UK & enable informed decisions through trusted, relevant and independent statistics & analysis.

• Work with colleagues in policy departments to pull together data sources and statistical pictures of a wide range of areas, e.g. Labour market, Economy, Population, Health.

• Used by local and national government and others to guide policy and monitor impact.

• Make statistics widely accessible on paper and the internet to enable the public, communities, academia and other bodies to understand statistics about the UK.

Neighbourhood Statistics (www.statistics.gov.uk)

Click Here

Deprivation and Ethnicity

Deprivation & Ethnicity: Introduction

• Data Sources:

– Population Census - Question on Ethnicity gives information on Ethnic Mix of an area.

– Indices of Multiple Deprivation

• Aim of Analysis: - To look at variations between regions of the spread of

ethnic groups across the different levels of deprivation

Deprivation & Ethnicity: Whole population

England: deciles (10 per cent groupings)

Relative Proportions compared with baseline

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

Mostdeprived

Leastdeprived

Level of Deprivation

Re

lati

ve

Pro

po

rtio

n (

ba

se

lin

e =

10

0)

England

Deprivation & Ethnicity: Indian Group

England: Tendency to live in more deprived areas

Relative Proportions compared with baseline

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

Mostdeprived

Leastdeprived

Level of Deprivation

Re

lati

ve

Pro

po

rtio

n (

ba

se

lin

e =

10

0)

England

Deprivation & Ethnicity: Indian Group

• Largest proportions of Indians in London.• Contrasting with national pattern - more spread across deprivation scale, most

living in medium deprivation areas.

Relative Proportions compared with baseline

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

Mostdeprived

Leastdeprived

Level of Deprivation

Re

lati

ve

Pro

po

rtio

n (

ba

se

lin

e =

10

0)

England

London

Deprivation & Ethnicity: Indian Group

• West Midlands: Generally lower proportions than in London, although above national average overall.

• Highest proportions in more deprived areas.

Relative Proportions compared with baseline

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

Mostdeprived

Leastdeprived

Level of Deprivation

Re

lati

ve

Pro

po

rtio

n (

ba

se

lin

e =

10

0) England

West Midlands

London

Deprivation & Ethnicity: Indian Group

• Yorkshire & the Humber: Below national baseline in all areas, with higher concentrations in more deprived areas.

Relative Proportions compared with baseline

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

Mostdeprived

Leastdeprived

Level of Deprivation

Re

lati

ve

Pro

po

rtio

n (

ba

se

lin

e =

10

0) England

Yorkshire and Humber

West Midlands

London

Deprivation & Ethnicity: Indian Group

• South East – Below national average proportions, concentrated in medium deprivation areas.

Relative Proportions compared with baseline

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

Mostdeprived

Leastdeprived

Level of Deprivation

Re

lati

ve

Pro

po

rtio

n (

ba

se

lin

e =

10

0)

England

Yorkshire and Humber

West Midlands

London

South East

Deprivation & Ethnicity: Bangladeshi Group

Relative Proportions compared with baseline

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Mostdeprived

Leastdeprived

Level of Deprivation

Re

lati

ve

Pro

po

rtio

n (

ba

se

lin

e =

10

0)

England

Yorkshire and Humber

West Midlands

London

South East

London over 17 times England

Deprivation & Ethnicity: Chinese Group

Relative Proportions compared with baseline

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0

1000.0

Mostdeprived

Leastdeprived

Level of Deprivation

Re

lati

ve

Pro

po

rio

n (

ba

se

lin

e =

10

0)

England

Yorkshire and Humber

West Midlands

London

Summary

• Differences between and within regionsIndian Group in London and South East concentrated in middle of deprivation

scale

Chinese group represented evenly across all levels of deprivation

• Some Ethnic Groups more likely to live in deprived areas within all regions:

Proportion of Bangladeshis 17 times higher in most deprived areas of London, and 4 times across England as a whole

Black Africans & Black Caribbeans 2.5 times as likely to live in most deprived areas across England, much higher in some regions

Analysing differences in Regional Economic Performance

Drivers of Productivity

• Government has identified following drivers for Regional Productivity:

Innovation

Enterprise

Investment

Skills

Competition

• The challenge is – how do we measure them, particularly at regional level?

Regional Economic Indicators

• ONS – Regional Economic Indicators article in Economic & Labour Market Review

• Main Indicators (examples):Innovation

• Regional Research & Development

Enterprise• VAT registrations

Investment• Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Skills• Qualifications

Competition• Regional Trade Statistics

Regional Economic Indicators – some results

Innovation:

• Research & Development as percentage of GVA

• East of England highest at 3.5% of GVA

• London, North East, Yorkshire & the Humber below 0.5%

R&D expenditure as a percentage of headline workplace based GVA: NUTS1 Regions

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

UK North East NorthWest

Yorkshireand theHumber

EastMidlands

WestMidlands

East London South East SouthWest

Wales Scotland NorthernIreland

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Competition:

• Regional Trade in Goods:

• Absolute (£ millions) distribution quite different from exports as percentage of Gross Value Added (GVA)

Regional Trade in Goods

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Region

£ m

illi

on

EU25 2004

EU25 2005

EU25 2006

Non-EU25 2004

Non-EU25 2005

Non-EU25 2006

Total exports of goods as percentage of GVA

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Region

perc

en

tag

e

2004

2005

Regional Economic Indicators – some results

Analysis - Productivity or GVA(GDP) per capita?

• The perception of relative regional performance can change depending on the measure of regional performance that is chosen

• Differences within regions can be as important as differences between regions

• Several factors explain the gap between regions

UK regional disparities in economic performance are significant…

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

North East

North West

Yorkshire and The Humber

East M idlands

West M idlands

East of England

London

South East

South West

Wales

Scotland

Northern Ireland

GVA per head

UK average

GVA – Gross Value Added – measure of economic activity

.. but how different depends on the criteria we use to measure “performance”…..

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

North East

North West

Yorkshire and The Humber

East M idlands

West Midlands

East of England

London

South East

South West

Wales

Scotland

Northern Ireland

GVA per head GVA per job

(UK average)

GVA per hour worked, the preferred measure of productivity, shows smaller gap between regions

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

North East

North West

Yorkshire and The Humber

East M idlands

West Midlands

East of England

London

South East

South West

Wales

Scotland

Northern Ireland

GVA per head GVA per job GVA per hour w orked

(UK average)

Explaining the differences:

UK average-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

North East

North West

Yorkshire and The Humber

East Midlands

West Midlands

East of England

London

South East

South West

Wales

Scotland

Northern Ireland

GVA per hour w orked

(UK average)

Explanatory factors: Hours worked per job

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

North East

North West

Yorkshire and The Humber

East Midlands

West Midlands

East of England

London

South East

South West

Wales

Scotland

Northern Ireland

GVA per hour w orked hours w orked per job

(UK average)

Hours worked per job

Explanatory factors: Employment/Labour Force

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

North East

North West

Yorkshire and The Humber

East Midlands

West Midlands

East of England

London

South East

South West

Wales

Scotland

Northern Ireland

GVA per hour w orked Hours w orked per job employment rate

(UK average)

Employment rate

Explanatory factors: Commuting

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

North East

North West

Yorkshire and The Humber

East Midlands

West Midlands

East of England

London

South East

South West

Wales

Scotland

Northern Ireland

GVA per hour w orked hours w orked per job employment rate commuting rate

(UK average)

Commuting rate

Explanatory factors: Labour Force/Population

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

North East

North West

Yorkshire and The Humber

East Midlands

West Midlands

East of England

London

South East

South West

Wales

Scotland

Northern Ireland

GVA per hour w orked hours w orked per job employment rate commuting rate activity rate

(UK average)

Activity rate

Main findings

• The perception of relative regional performance can change depending on the measure of productivity that is chosen

• Differences within regions can be as important as differences between regions

• Several factors explain the gap between regions: in the North East, all working in one direction

• East of England and South East - good exploitation of geographical location, skills, innovation, transport and infrastructure

Key differences in regional economic performances – GVA per head, per filled job and per hour worked

Key differences in regional economic performances – GVA per hour worked

Key differences in regional economic performances – Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI) per head

Differences within/between regions

• Sub-regions (NUTS2, NUTS3 areas)• City regions • Labour Market Areas/Travel to Work Areas• Urban-rural divide• Other geographical areas

GVA, productivity, GDHI, labour market indicators show

variation within the overall regional picture

Differences within/between regions – NUTS2 GVA per head

Differences within/between regions – NUTS3 GVA per head

Differences in GVA per head from the UK average in the bottom ten peforming NUTS3 areas

-50 -45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0

Isle of Anglesey

Gw ent Valleys

Wirral

South West Wales

Isle of Wight

Torbay

Lochaber, Skye & Lochalsh and Argyll and the Islands

East Dunbartonshire, West Dunbartonshire and

Caithness & Sutherland and Ross & Cromarty

North of Northern Ireland

percentage difference from the UK average

GVA per head

Differences in GVA per head from the UK average in the bottom ten peforming NUTS3 areas

-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10

Isle of Anglesey

Gw ent Valleys

Wirral

South West Wales

Isle of Wight

Torbay

Lochaber, Skye & Lochalsh and Argyll and theIslands

East Dunbartonshire, West Dunbartonshireand Helensburgh & Lomond

Caithness & Sutherland and Ross & Cromarty

North of Northern Ireland

percentage difference from the UK average

Productivity (*100) Employment Rate (*100) Commuting Rate (*100) Activity Rate (*100)

GVA per head …. … vs Productivity

Commuter Viewer

Wirral

Statistical visualisation examples:Urban Audit

Statistical visualisation examples:2001 Census Key Statistics

Statistical visualisation examples:Local Units by Industry

Statistical visualisation examples:Personal Inflation Calculator

Statistical visualisation examples:Urban Audit

Statistical visualisation examples:Urban Audit

Statistical visualisation examples:Urban Audit

Statistical visualisation examples:Urban Audit

www.statistics.gov.uk