Migration: Safety Valve or Resource Loss? A Case Study of the Maltese Archipelago Dr Rose Marie...

Migration: Safety Valve or Resource Loss?A Case Study of the Maltese Archipelago

Dr Rose Marie AzzopardiUniversity of Malta

16th International Metropolis Conference12 – 16 September 2011, Azores Islands

Outline of Presentation

• The Maltese Archipelago• Migration theories• Methodology• Maltese Migration, historical overview• Modern Migration

– Post EU membership– Inter-island mobility– Illegal Migration

• Economic and social effects• Concluding comments

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The Maltese Archipelago

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2010• Three main islands: 316 square kilometres• Malta, Gozo, Comino and other islets• Population: 417,608• Density: 1,321 per square kilometre• Maltese immigration : 1,200• Maltese emigration: 1,863• Working population: full time 146,000• part time 51,000 • (of which 22,000 hold a full time job)

• Employment rate: 57%• Unemployment rate: 6.3%

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The Maltese Archipelago

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Economic Structure

Sector

GDP (%) Employment (%)

Agriculture and fisheries 2.17 1.2

Manufacturing

Construction

13.58

3.42

1 7.5

7.5

Services 80.83 73.8

Migration theories

• Theories have grounding in different academic fields

• Motives can be economic, social, cultural, geographical, political, environmental.....

• Push-pull factors at play and various processes influence migration behaviour

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8Source: Bijak 2006

Ernest Ravenstein (1889)

• Geographer: The Laws of Migration– Better external economic conditions– Gender, social class, age influence movement– Mobility is bilateral– Migration decreases with distance– Migration occurs in stages, not one long

stretch– Adults migrate– Migration from countryside to city

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Macro Economics Theories (until 1970s)

• Classical:– demand or employment-driven (Keynesian)

– dual economy, country and urban (Lewis),

dealing with low and high paid jobs (Poire)

• Neo-classical: – intersectoral wage differentials (Schultz)– maximization of expected incomes (Todaro)

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Micro economic theories(1980s onwards)

Benefits of migrating must be more than costs of going

• Neo-classical: individuals or households migration behaviour based on economic decisions relating to work and the accumulation of wealth, so wage differentials and job prospects are key

•Value-expectancy: motivations of personal goals and values, ‘cognitive calculus’, human capital models and social capital models dealing with family and networks

• New economics: Decisions are undertaken not by sole actors but by families or households, not only to maximize income but also to minimize costs, role of remittances

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Methodology

• Published data and reports

• Interviews

• Focus groups

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Maltese Population Trends

• 1807 - 93,000• 1901 - 184,742• 2010 - 417,608

• 2050 projections: 380,200 (lower birth rate, higher life expectancy and

net migration flows)

Pre wars temporary migration in the Mediterranean

1946 – 1974 – around 140,000 emigrated13

1946 - 1992

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Migrants and Returned Migrants1946-2001 and 2005-2010

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Modern Migration

• Post-EU migration

• Inter-island migration and mobility

• Illegal migration

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Post-EU Migration• Outward migration: problem areas mainly with

professionals, especially medical and IT sectors• (in 2000, 28.5%, in 2005, 80%, in 2008 50%, in 2010, 20%)• 57.6%% of tertiary educated emigrated

• Inward migration is also high, with persons working in all types of sectors

• 15.5 thousand, or 3.8% of population, mainly from UK, Australia, Canada, Italy, US, Libya, Germany and France (including 17.5% refugees)

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Post – EU Maltese Migration

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2010

Emigration Immigration Net

Maltese

EU nationals

Third Country

1863

2820

1271

5954

1200

6265

689

8154

-663

+3445

-582

2200

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Inter-islands Mobility

• Gozo 30,020 (2001) - 31,295 (2010)

• Slight increase in population (4.2%)...not due to natural growth.– Birth: 1999-2009 decrease in birth rate of 28.3% compared

to 12.6% in Malta (2010, crude birth rate of 9.65/9.15)– Death: crude death rate is higher than mainland, 9.7%

compared to 7.6%

• Full time employed : 8,530 (2001) 8,977 (2010)– Increase in public sector employment (by transferring back

office work from mainland), decrease in manufacturing

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Gozo: Migration and Mobility

• Inward coming population– Foreign population growth (18.9%) compared to 7.6%

nation-wide– Maltese registered with a Gozitan address

• Outward going population– Out of every 10 marriages between young couples,

estimates suggest that 7 are settling down in Malta– Trend has been increasing in last decade, mainly due

to lack of jobs, prospects for promotion or a real career in Gozo

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Illegal Migration2002-2010

– 361 boats carrying 13,177 illegal migrants reached the Maltese shores

– 10,783 filed applications with the Office of the Refugee Commissioner

– Out of 10,581 decision taken, 4,450 were rejected, only 271 were granted asylum, while the rest were provided with some form of protection

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2010• 176 applications for asylum

• 115 from Africa and 58 from Asia, the majority in the 18-34 age group

• 1,992 living in open centres in Malta, of which 1,525 men, 264 women and 203 minors

• Majority (1,956) from Africa, 17 from Europe and the rest (18) from Asia.

• 243 persons more were found to be illegally in Malta and obliged to leave the country

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Economic and Social Effects

• Post EU: • Brain drain in certain sectors encouraging

more educational courses and more students to take up prospective courses, value expectancy theory

knowledge spillover effects from foreign workers in top positions and

dual labour market situation in lower end jobs

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Contd.

• Inter-island: Gozo turning into an old-people’s home, impacting on economic activity in various sectors

• Tourism related activities at specific times of the year (summer with Maltese and during leaner months with foreigners)

• Better job prospects for individuals moving or migrating, value expectancy theory/neo-classical/new economics

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Contd.

• Illegal: stretching the resources of the island

• Some element of racism

• People in open centres doing the odd jobs locals are not willing to do at the going wages (construction, waste collection and disposal centres) – dual labour market theory

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Conclusion• Traditional migration was considered as a safety valve to avoid

high unemployment figures, but also a resource loss in terms of forgone skills and productivity

• Modern migration is a resource loss for both Gozo and Malta, particularly in the professional sectors, the higher educated but also a resource gain from the impact of foreigners

• It is a balancing item for the economy.

• For the individual migration appears to be mainly a positive experience, financially and career wise, with negative aspects related to family ties, which tend to weaken over time

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Thank you for your attention

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