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Monetary policy: find the right balance!. Júlia Király, Deputy Governor. Magyar Nemzeti Bank. IT was successful in bringing down inflation…. …but not in stabilizing inflation around the MNB’s target(s). A series of adverse shocks : bad luck or something systemic ?. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Monetary policy: find the right balance!
Júlia Király, Deputy Governor
Magyar Nemzeti Bank
IT was successful in bringing down inflation…
2
A series of adverse shocks: bad luck or something systemic?
3
…but not in stabilizing inflation around the MNB’s target(s)
Mismeasurment of the output gap
4
Estimated output gap between Q1:1995 and Q2:2008
5
Not always easy to find the right model!
Theoretical consistency
Data coherence
1.
2.
2.
3.
2a. Complex full-fledgedDSGE
2b. Complex VECM
3. Small scale intuitive policy oriented
„Dirty floating” is inconsistent with IT!
6
Price stability VERSUS? financial stability
7
PRICE
STABILITY
FINANCIAL
STABILITY
FLEXIBLE INFLATION
TARGETING
MACROPRUDENTIAL
POLICIES
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