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Mongolia
Ministry of Finance, Mongolia
Ref:WB/MOF/MINIS/CS/QCBS/1.1.4 (c)/2015
Project Name: Mining Infrastructure Investment Support Project
(MINIS)
Credit# 4888-MN
Terms of Reference for the Feasibility Study for
“Shuren hydropower plant” project
Funded by:
International Development Association
Date: October2015
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Terms of Reference for a Feasibility Study of
‘Shuren Hydropower Plant’ Project
CONTENTS
A. GENERAL INFORMATION ..................................................................................................... 5
A 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 5
A 1.1. Background .............................................................................................................. 5
A 1.2. The Government Policy of Mongolia ....................................................................... 6
A 1.3 Project Region .......................................................................................................... 7
A 1.4. Project initial screening ........................................................................................... 8
A 2. Overall Scope of the Study .............................................................................................. 8
A 2.1. The Purpose of Feasibility Study .............................................................................. 8
A 2.2. Integration with the ESIA ......................................................................................... 9
A 2.3. Advisory Committee ................................................................................................ 9
B. UPDATE OF PROJECT CHARACTERISTICS .................................................................. 10
B 1. Review of Previous Studies and Site Visits ................................................................... 10
B 2. Power Demand and Sector Review ............................................................................... 10
B 3. Updated Surveys and Investigations ............................................................................. 11
B 3.1. Engineering Topographic Survey ........................................................................... 11
B 3.2. Geological and Geotechnical Investigations .......................................................... 11
B 3.3. Seismic Studies ...................................................................................................... 13
B 3.4. Construction Material Studies ............................................................................... 13
B 3.5. Geotechnical Baseline Report ................................................................................ 14
B 4. Updated Hydrology and Climate Change Assessment .................................................. 14
B 4.1. Meteorological and Hydrological Studies .............................................................. 14
B 4.2. Water Consumptions ............................................................................................. 14
B 4.3. Climate Change Assessment .................................................................................. 15
B 5. Assessment of power evacuation alternatives and integration to CES .......................... 15
B.5.1 Integration to CES .................................................................................................. 15
B 5.2. Transmission and Grid Connection ........................................................................ 15
B 6. Reservoir Modeling and Power Simulations ................................................................. 15
B 6.1. Reservoir Operation ............................................................................................... 15
B 6.2. Flood Routing ......................................................................................................... 16
B 7. Conceptual Scheme Layout ........................................................................................... 16
B 7.1 Basic Data Defining the Project Design.................................................................. 16
B 7.2. Dam Design ............................................................................................................ 17
B7.3. Stability and Structural Analysis ............................................................................ 18
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Terms of Reference for a Feasibility Study of
‘Shuren Hydropower Plant’ Project
B7.4. Dewatering and Water Diversion .......................................................................... 19
B 7.5. Design of Hydro-Mechanical and Electro-Mechanical Equipment ........................ 19
B 7.6. Infrastructure and Access Roads ........................................................................... 19
B 8. Site Selection ................................................................................................................. 20
B. 8.1 Costs and Benefits of Alternatives ......................................................................... 20
B 8.2. Multi-criteria Analysis for Site Selection ................................................................ 20
B 8.3. Site Selection Report and Workshop ..................................................................... 20
B 9. Feasibility Level Design ................................................................................................ 20
B. 9.1 Complementary Surveys and Investigations ......................................................... 20
B. 9.2 Design, Drawings and Bill of Quantities ................................................................. 21
B 10. Implementation Plans ................................................................................................ 21
B 10.1. Contract and Procurement Planning ..................................................................... 21
B 10.2. Implementation Schedule...................................................................................... 21
B 10.3. Project Operation Organization ............................................................................. 22
B 11. Dam Safety Measures ................................................................................................ 22
B 12. Legal Analyses ............................................................................................................ 22
B 12.1. Laws, Regulations and Electricity Tariff ................................................................. 22
B 12.2 Management and Financing Alternatives .............................................................. 23
B 13. Financial and Economic Analyses ............................................................................. 23
B13.1. Capital and Investment Costs ................................................................................ 23
B 13.2.Operating Expenses .................................................................................................... 23
B13.3. Direct and Indirect Benefits ................................................................................... 24
B 13.4 Financial and Economic Analyses .......................................................................... 24
B 14. Risk Register .............................................................................................................. 24
B 15. Final Recommendation .............................................................................................. 25
B 16. Feasibility Report and Workshop .............................................................................. 25
C. REPORTING REQUIREMENTS AND DELIVERABLES ................................................. 25
C1. Deliverables and Reporting ........................................................................................... 25
C1.1. Progress Reporting ................................................................................................ 25
C1.2. Main Reports ......................................................................................................... 26
C 2. Management of the Feasibility Study ............................................................................ 26
C 2.1 Roles and Responsibilities ..................................................................................... 26
C 2.2 Time Schedule ........................................................................................................ 27
C 2.3. Ownership and Control of Information, Data and Documents ............................. 27
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Terms of Reference for a Feasibility Study of
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D. REQUIRMENT FOR THE CONSULTANT TEAM ............................................................... 29
D1. Consultants Required .......................................................................................................... 29
D 2.Key Professional Qualifications and Competence for the Assignment .............................. 29
F IDENTIFIED RELEVANT STUDIES .................................................................................. 35
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Terms of Reference for a Feasibility Study of
‘Shuren Hydropower Plant’ Project
A. GENERAL INFORMATION
A 1. Introduction
A 1.1. Background
The Government of Mongolia (GoM) has received a Technical Assistance Credit from
the International Development Association (the Bank) in an amount equivalent to US$25
million, toward the cost of Mining Infrastructure Investment Support Project (MINIS)
and intends to apply a portion of the proceeds of this credit to eligible payments under
this Contract.
The Mining Infrastructure Investment Support Project (MINIS) financed by the World
Bank aims to facilitate investments in infrastructure to support mining related activities
and downstream value-added processes (regardless of funding source) and to build local
capacity to prepare and transact infrastructure Projects. In the scope of “Shuren
hydropower plant” (“Project”), a Feasibility Study will be carried out.
Due to its growing population, Mongolia’s primary energy consumption has steadily
increased over the last years while consumption intensity remained the same. Mongolia is
in danger of a serious energy shortfall as early as 2012, at which point the maximum
imported capacity of 255 MW from Russia may not meet demand. Russian power has
become more expensive. This shortfall will grow with rapid expansion of the country`s
mining sector.
To address energy shortfall, the Government cabinet meeting (November 2011) discussed
the Shuren hydropower plant (HPP) along with several other energy projects and
recognized the Shuren HPP as a priority project.
The MINIS is funding a feasibility study to look at constructing a Shuren hydropower
plant on the Selenge River. Within the framework of the MINIS Project, it is planned to
hire a consulting teams to develop the Feasibility Study and Environmental and Social
Impact Assessment of Shuren Hydropower Plant.
The basic goal of the ‘Shuren Hydropower Plant’ Project is to supply the electricity
demanded by the mining sector and to fill electricity shortfall faced by the country.
Secondary goals are to provide renewable energy, enable energy independence from the
Russian power system and a low-cost supply of renewable energy.
The proposed Project could be both technically and economically feasible, however it
cannot be considered further without taking into account direct environmental and social
impacts. The Project has been classified as Category “A” according to the World Bank
Environmental Assessment Operational Policy 4.01, and therefore the proposed project
must be reviewed by conducting a Detailed Environmental and Social Impact Assessment
(EISA) with public consultation.
The work to be done under this TOR is the technical and economic components of the
Feasibility Study stage, while the ESIA will be contracted separately. The Feasibility
Study work must however be closely coordinated with the ESIA activities and
deliverables
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Terms of Reference for a Feasibility Study of
‘Shuren Hydropower Plant’ Project
The Shuren project has been studied at pre-feasibility level, which is reported in the
“Technical Study Report for the Shuren Hydropower Plant Project”. This study
comprises the basis for the development of the Feasibility Study TORs.
A 1.2. The Government Policy of Mongolia
Constructing a medium capacity hydropower plant with a dam on western area rivers has
been implemented successfullyin recent years.A hydropower plant with RollerCompacted
Concrete (RCC)dam(Taishir hydro power plant) was built over the Zavkhan River and a
Concrete Faced Rockfill(CFRD) dam (Durgun hydro power plant) was constructed on the
ChonoKharaikh River. These hydropower plants created a stable energy supply and
sustainable livelihood in western area of the country. In the northern part, large scale
hydropower plants would supply electricity demanded by the mining sector and fill
electricity shortfall faced by the country, and bring multipurpose benefitstothe
SelengeRiverregion.
The State Great Khural (Parliament) and the Government of Mongolia are highly
attentive of these concepts and have mentioned them in the laws and policieslisted below:
1. Mongolia’s Strategy for Sustainable Development of the Energy Sector 2002-
2010has been approved by the cabinet in July 2002 and revised in 2004. The aims
of theStrategy include: sustainable development of the energy sector, reduced
povertyand increased involvement of the private sector, and public interest in the
sectorthrough a more secure energy supply.
2. Mongolia’s energy sector has overcome a transition from a centralised,
commandbasedsystem to a market-oriented one. Currently, within the Central
Energy System(CES), electricity is traded through the main market – the “single
buyer model”(SBM) – and two other accompanying markets: spot and competitive.
3. In June 2005, the Mongolian Parliament approved the National Renewable Energy
Program which sets ambitious goals for broad-based renewable energy
development increasing the share of renewable energy in total energy supply from
0.9% in 2005 to 3-5% by 2010 and to 20-25% by 2020.
4. Item 3.8. National Renewable Energy Program; Take measures to perform
technical economic feasibility studies of large hydropower stations namely Eg river
220 megawatts station, Artsat 118 megawatts station on Selenge River and Orkhon
river 110 megawatts station on rivers with significant hydropower resources such as
Selenge, Eg and Orkhon rivers, and to implement these studies.
5. The Renewable Energy Law of Mongolia came into force on 11 January 2007 and
regulates the generation and supply of energy from renewable energy sources. The
Government is seeking active engagements of donors and local and foreign private
investors for the development of Mongolia’s large renewable potential for utilizing
solar, wind, hydro and geothermal energy resources.
6. Item 9.2.3, Renewable energy law of Mongolia; Studies on soil, flora, geological
and hydro-geological conditions, geographical location, land surface, air pressure,
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Terms of Reference for a Feasibility Study of
‘Shuren Hydropower Plant’ Project
weather, wind regime, and water study for cases of constructing facilities which
will use hydro sources.
7. Item 9.2.4, Renewable energy law of Mongolia; A statement issued by an authority
with regard to compliance of equipment, technology and facilities of a renewable
energy power source with national and international standards.
8. Item 3.5.1.7 of Mongolian National Security Concept approved by Resolution
No.48 by the Parliament of Mongolia, dated 15 July, 2010 - “Regulate flow of
large rivers and construct a reservoir in order to improve usage of surface water in
Mongolia”
9. Item 1.7. Some of action plan of Renewable energy source studies No. 16
Parliament of Mongolia dated 08 June 2010 – “ Intensify for Large scale hydro,
solar and wind power plant source studies, promote for NGO and private sector
and cooperate”
10. Item 8.17.Base line of develop for Economic and society of Mongolia in 2013.No.
37 Parliament of Mongolia dated 18 May 2012 -Initiate large scale hydropower
plant construction work (300-350MW) on Selenge River basin.
11. Item 63-3. Implementation plan of action program of Government of Mongolia
No. 120 Parliament of Mongolia dated 03 November 2012 - Startup Pre-
feasibility study of large scale hydropower plant on Selenge River basin.
12. Item 3.3.2.Water National Program approved by Resolution No. 24 by the
Parliament of Mongolia dated 20 May 2010 - “Regulate flow of Archon, Selenge,
Tuul and Khovd rivers, some of rivers and construct a reservoir, transmit water in
order to Improve usage of surface water in Mongolia”
13. Item 3.3.19. Water National Program approved by Resolution No. 24 by the
Parliament of Mongolia dated 20 May 2010 – Improve again Mongolian rivers
hydro energy potential, Renewable energy development plan, Energy
consumption and demand, sector policy and planning connect with operational
experience and maintenance difficulties of Taishir and Durgun HPP.
14. Item 3.3.32. Water National Program approved by Resolution No. 24 by the
Parliament of Mongolia dated 20 May 2010 – Carry out Feasibility study of HPP
on Selenge River with 300MW, Egiin HPP with 220MW and Orkhon HPP with
100MW, studied and resolved to startup the construction work.
A 1.3 Project Region
Selenge River is the biggest river of Mongolia. It belongs to the ArcticOcean Basin and it
flows from Mongolia across the border to theRussianFederation supplying 50percent of
the flows to the Baikal Lake.
The planned HPP site is located at 3 km from the tributary of Shuren River joining the
Selenge River, which is at Orgikh bag, Tsagaannuursoum, Selenge province. The
reservoir area would cover the territory of Selenge and Khangalsoum of Bulgan province
as well as Baruunburen, Khushaat, Tsagaannuursoums of Selenge province. Thus, it is
required to conduct studies of the detailed environmental, ecological and socio-economic
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Terms of Reference for a Feasibility Study of
‘Shuren Hydropower Plant’ Project
impact of the project. Both positive and negative aspects to the project areashould be
studied in the feasibility stage.
To meet the growing energy consumption of central region, ensuring reliable and
sustainable energy forthe mining industry in the Gobi area, it is required to have a new
energy resource that can enable a stable energy system in Central Energy System, and
which is capable to deliver power for peak load and reserve energy. This energy source
can be supplied by HPP on the Selenge River, which could provide maximum daily load
and allow the system to control the frequency.
A 1.4. Project initial screening
In the Phase 2 of the MINIS project a pre-feasibility study was conducted includingan
option assessment and initialscreeningof theenvironment, social, finance and economics
of a hydropower plant on theSelenge River. Its results werediscussed and agreed with the
Working Group of the Ministry of Energy. The pre-feasibility study is available for
interested bidders and can be obtained by the MINIS Project Management Unit.
The result of the pre-feasibility study for the HPP Shuren is that the investigated area at
the SelengeRiver between Khyalganat and Zuunburen is suited for the proposed
construction of a HPP. Within this area, six possible dam sites have been identified. They
have been selected by new investigations and based on the Russian feasibility study from
1973.
Site no. 1 49°48'24.45"N, 105°09'51.70"E
Site no. 2 49°44'43.07"N, 105°02'58.63"E
Site no. 3 49°43'59.27"N, 104°57'15.60"E
Site no. 4 49°42'29.70"N, 104°56'25.72"E
Site no. 5 49°41'06.73"N, 104°47'54.18"E
Site no. 6 49°40'31.20"N, 104°45'52.26"E
Two locations, Sites no. 4 and 6, were identified as best suited for the construction of a
HPP and have to be further investigated in the feasibility study. The selection of the final
location has to be done by a comparison of sites taking into account the power generation
need for the Central Energy System (CES), technical and economic feasibility, and
environmental and social impacts.
The initial screening of potential sites for the Shuren HPP was followed by preliminary
investigations for the Site No. 4 in the pre-feasibility study, which indicated that Shuren
HPP is an important and feasible project for the future generation of power for theCES.
The feasibility study shall, review all previously studied sites, confirm the preliminary
investigations of Site no. 4and conduct similar investigations of Site no.6to make an
informed choice of the best alternative. The best alternative will then be further
developed and analyzed to a feasibility level design.
A 2. OverallScope of the Study
A 2.1. The Purpose of Feasibility Study
The purpose of Feasibility Study is to analyze the possibility of implementing proposed
Shuren HPP project in terms of technical, financial and economic factors. The Feasibility
Study shall satisfy the following requirements:
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Terms of Reference for a Feasibility Study of
‘Shuren Hydropower Plant’ Project
Perform an analysis of all relevant technical, economic, financialissues to high
professional standards;
Prepare engineering designs at the Feasibility Study Level and develop a Draft
Implementation Plan;
Calculate required capital investment for each project stages and identify the basis
of the Project in compliance with the Technical, Economic, Environmental and
Social Impact Assessment;
Suggest an appropriate solution on capital investment and identify project
implementation phases;
The Feasibility Study must be carried out in compliance with Mongolian laws,
construction norms and regulations of Construction Normative and Rule (CNaR), and
international standards, and consider that the outcome of the Feasibility Study process
will be subject to an Environmental and Social Impact Assessment, in compliance with
the World Bank’s Operations Safeguard Policy and that detail and quality of the
Feasibility Study will be sufficiently high to support approvals and financing decisions at
an international level.
The Feasibility Study report must be developed and submitted for the review in
accordance with the World Bank and Mongolian government rules and procedures and
the consulting service can only be considered to be completed after receipt of the
customer's approval on such report.
A 2.2. Integration with the ESIA
The feasibility study and the detailed ESIA of the ShurenHPPwillbe conducted by
different consultants to full World Bank requirements and relevant Mongolian and
international standard, rules and procedures, but these two studies must be highly
interrelated.
The Feasibility Study consultant shall regularly coordinate its activities with the ESIA
consultant and actively inform itself of the results of the ESIA. Results of the technical
feasibility study and the parallel ESIA shall be integrated to make the final choice of the
best site and size for the Shuren HPP. The preliminary design of the chosen site shall take
into account environmental and social impacts, and the cost estimate and proposed
implementation plan shall take into account the Environmental Management Plans,
Resettlement Action Plan and Livelihood Improvement Programs.
A 2.3. Advisory Committee
The Consultant’s work and output will be reviewed by an Advisory Committee assigned
by the Client. The committeewill include international renowned hydropower experts in
the technical, environmental and social fields, and will review the results of both the
feasibility study and the ESIA. The committeewill review main outputs, such as the draft
inception report, site selection report and feasibility report. The Consultant shall respond
to the committee’scomments and recommendation, incorporate these in the final reports,
or clearly motivate if not following the recommendations.
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Terms of Reference for a Feasibility Study of
‘Shuren Hydropower Plant’ Project
B. UPDATE OF PROJECT CHARACTERISTICS
B 1. Review of Previous Studies and Site Visits
The proposed Shuren project location at the Selenge River was investigated in the pre-
feasibility study. As a result two possible dam sites were selected for further investigation
in the feasibility study:
Site no. 4 49°42'29.70"N, 104°56'25.72"E Dam height; 65 meter
Site no. 6 49°40'31.20"N, 104°45'52.26"E Dam height: 43 meter
For the construction design given in the pre-feasibility study, site no. 4 was selected as
the site for further investigations in the pre-a stage since it provides more head than site
no. 6 and the available documents of the Russian feasibility study from 1973 refer to that
site. This preliminary determination of one site enabled a more detailed construction
assessment, providing the motivation for further studies of the Shuren Hydropower
Project.
Nevertheless, all previously studied sites must be reviewed, and both sites no. 6 and no. 4
have to be studied further in the feasibility study stage. The final selection of the dam site
and dam design shall go hand-in-hand and must include the investigationsof both sites, a
study of various dam types, reservoir capacities, mode of operation with respect to base
load and peaking, reservoir and flow management and required environmental and social
impact mitigation.
It is necessary to collect, summarize and evaluate available reports, studies, calculations
and further inventory data related to the construction of the Shuren project. In particular a
repeated search for the Russian feasibility study from 1973 has to be done. Cooperation
and consultation with Mongolian and Russian authorities, organizations and companies is
essential.
The Consultant shall therefore as a first task compile all relevant previous studies and
information for the alternative sites identified for the proposed Shuren Hydropower
Project. Key documents are the feasibility studies from 1973, the pre-feasibility study
conducted under MINIS and the new Energy Master Plan. All documents shall be
carefully reviewed to inform the Feasibility Study.
The Consultant shall conduct an initial site visit to the Selenge River, and shall meet the
Client and key stakeholders, such as the Ministry of Energy, Ministry of Environment
and the Working Group for the Shuren Hydropower Project development.
As a result of the review of all previous documents and available information, the
Consultant shall prepare an Inception Report, highlighting any changes to the
methodology that was made in the Technical Proposal, and update the activities
andworkschedule if needed.
B 2. Power Demand and Sector Review
The Consultant shall, based on the information collected in Phase 1 and 2 and the new
Energy Master Plan, and any other available information, review and update the
electricity demand forecast for Mongolia, and especially the future demands and load
factors for the Central Energy System (CES)
The Consultant shall conduct a thorough review of the Mongolian energy sector and
policies, and establish likely expansion alternatives for the future CES in regard to
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Terms of Reference for a Feasibility Study of
‘Shuren Hydropower Plant’ Project
generation, inter-connections and transmission. The consultant shall especially establish
an understanding of the future role for hydropower as a generation source for the CES.In
additions the Consultant shall review and evaluate any need for ancillary functions of
hydropower, such as frequency control and spinning reserve for the CES.
B 3. Updated Surveys and Investigations
B 3.1. Engineering TopographicSurvey
The Consultant shall collect, summarize and evaluate available reports, previous surveys,
aerial mappings and further inventory data related to the topography of the Shuren
project. Cooperation and consultation with Mongolian authorities, organizations and
licensed companies is required.
Detailed survey of site no. 4 is available and presented in the pre-feasibility study, if
found necessary the Consultant shall expand mapping area scaled by 1:5000 and 1:1000.
The Consultant shall conduct site survey of site no. 6 to a relevant level to enable
conceptual design for comparison of the two sites. Any geodesy mapping of the dam sites
and the reservoir shall include the marking of villages, landmarks, fields and meadows,
transmission lines etc.
The Consultant shall survey all possible existing movable or immovable objects, sites,
structures, groups and natural features and landscapes that have archaeological,
paleontological, historical, architectural, religious, aesthetic, or other cultural significance
in site 4 and 6.Geodesy mapping shall be performed with suitable scale and accuracy,
using GIS and AutoCAD software. Aerial and satellite mapping shall be used in
combination with topographic survey.
In addition to the site surveys, the Consultant shall develop topographic maps in the scale
of 1:100000 for the whole impact area (including grid connection to Erdenet) with
elevation accuracy not less than 10 meters. For the reservoir areas the Consultant
shalldeveloptopographic maps in the scale of 1:50000 with accuracy not less than 10
meters.
B 3.2. Geological and Geotechnical Investigations
The Consultant shall collect, summarize and evaluate available information from
previously conducted geological, hydro-geological, seismological studies and inventory
data related to the Shuren project. List all the information by name, type, age, scope of
work, duration for execution, methodology and results. Cooperation and consultation
with Mongolian authorities, organizations and companies is required.
The Consultant shall conduct geological and geotechnical investigations to a level that
will allow conceptual design for comparison of the two sites (no.4 and no.6)
The Consultant shall investigate the geological condition and phenomenon of the whole
project area, including dam sites, reservoirs and grid connections. Make geological
assessment of existing data, maps and aerial maps categorized by zones. Prepare
geological maps and geological cross sections and seismic-tectonic drawings categorized
by zones. This part of geological works for feasibility study shall include activities to;
Identify boundaries and intensity of geological processes.
Visit the project area and establish a survey and investigation program.
Develop parameters to describe the geological condition of the area and develop a
methodology for the geological, hydro-geological and geophysical studies.
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Terms of Reference for a Feasibility Study of
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Identify soil and rock types, fractures and boundary of rock-soil cracks, locations
and replenishment accumulation zones. Identify depth and thickness of soil, river
alluvium and rock.
Identify depth and thickness of permafrost soil.
Identify the permeability of river alluvium, rock and soil.
Identify frost resistance of rock.
Identify the level of ground water, flow direction and chemical composition of
each layer of ground water.
Hydro-geological survey and investigation shall cover the proposeddam sites and
reservoirs area. Under this study, the consultant shall establish hydro-geological
monitoring boreholes to identify underground water regime. Give recommendations on
soil water regime changes, methods of observation for the regime and methods for
measurements during operation period.
Within the geophysical survey, which should cover the proposed dam site area,
theConsultant shall identify depth of rock, soil and permafrost boundaries, thickness and
fracture, crack boundaries, and establish the level of soil water and deep water in the river
valley and flow direction. Also, Consultant shall conduct a geophysical study for
seismology and earthquake zoning. The Consultant shall select method and methodology
suitable for the geophysical study and conduct a drilling survey to verify results.
The Consultant shall identify engineering geological conditions at the selected dam site
areas, areas for power house and dam facilities (water collecting reservoir, dam, hydro
power station, water outlet structure, and spillway and fish passage). Develop geological
mapping and reports for the dam site and areas for power house and other facilities.
Survey and investigate geology, geophysics and engineering geology connected to the
topographic mapping. Conduct geotechnical investigation following the selected line and
profile.
Geotechnical investigations shall include soil and rock soil drilling, kern sampling,
digging channel, cast in place test and gallery at the embankment area, site test,
laboratory tests and their reports and determine soil and rock strata. Engineering
geological assessment shall be conducted for the following components:
Water accumulating reservoir (water proofing of the reservoir, any water loss and
slope stabilization)
Embankment
Other hydro-technical buildings and facilities.
Sub stations
Construction material quarry and borrow pit site
Infrastructure at the dam embankment
Conduct a drilling survey program to verify the geological, hydro-geological and
geophysical studies. This program includes the drillings, diggings, kern sampling, site
and laboratory tests.
The Consultant shall:
Drill at least 10 boreholes at each dam site (no. 4& no. 6) along the planned weir
axis also drill at least 2 boreholes in the river. Depth of the boreholes needs to
penetrate the base rock below the river alluvium and to penetrate up to minimum
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Terms of Reference for a Feasibility Study of
‘Shuren Hydropower Plant’ Project
10 meters in the base rock. Determine base rock cracks, their length, width,
location and direction.
Drill 0-2 boreholes within 1 km² in the reservoir area. Depth of boreholes needs to
penetrate the base rock. Select the location of the boreholes depending on the
geological conditions. Identify soil characteristics in regard of slope stabilities in
the reservoir area to evaluate the risk of landslides.
Drill one borehole at the proposed location of the substation. Depth of borehole
needs to penetrate the base rock.
Drill boreholes of 5-6 m depth at each 3 km along the proposed transmission line
and access road.
Sample not less than 30 % of the drillings and diggings and test them at a
laboratory to determine soil and rock characteristics. Store the sorted kerns and
samples in a safe location. Based on the findings, develop geological maps, cross
sections, seismic-tectonic drawings and reports, connected to the topographic
survey and categorized by zones. Assess the suitability of the rock and soil for
foundations or use of construction material.
B 3.3. Seismic Studies
The Consultant shall summarize quality and quantity data used in the previously
conducted seismic study analyzing by name and type of works, coverage, executed
timeframe, methodology and result and provide a conclusion.
The Consultant shall conduct a detailed seismic study at thesites of the proposed dams at
the Selenge River and site surveys and investigations for determining cracks in the base
rock, length of cracks, vertical and longitudinal transferring and types of damage. Based
on the geological, and geophysical studies and laboratory tests, identify physic and
mechanic characteristics of the rock. Assess seismic impacts, risks and describe
seismicity for the project area.
The Consultant shall determine seismic impact zones, seismic sources, and the estimated
maximum earthquake, the design maximum earthquake during project operation, the
earthquake speed, ground acceleration, and earthquake grades as basis for design
parameters.
The Consultant shall develop seismicity zones maps for the project area. In addition the
Consultant shall review the current seismic network in the region, project area and make
suggestions for improving monitoring seismic activity in the project region and area.
B 3.4. Construction Material Studies
The Consultant shall identify location, quantity and characteristics of sand, gravel, stones,
boulders and rock suitable for use as construction material and for concrete production.
Identification shall be done my sampling and field and laboratory tests. Pay special
attention to test the mineral aggregates for danger of alkali-silica-reaction (ASR).
In addition, the Consultant shall identify resources of cement, steel, wood both of local or
distant material procurement sources, and assess available quantity and quality of water
to be used for construction. Investigations must follow norms, standards and regulation
requirements of the Mineral Resources Authority in Mongolia based on regulation to
protect nature and environment and usage of natural resources.
The Consultant shall provide investigation results and maps of the resource locations,
sampling locations and transport routes.
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Terms of Reference for a Feasibility Study of
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B 3.5. Geotechnical Baseline Report
The Consultant shall summarize all findings of the geological and geotechnical
investigations into a Geotechnical Baseline Report following international standards.
B 4. Updated Hydrology and Climate Change Assessment
Within the framework of the Feasibility Study a complete hydrological investigation shall
be conducted to expand observation data along Selenge River and collect data until
Baikal Lake. The Consultant shall collect, summarize and evaluate available studies and
inventory data related to the hydrology of the Selenge River. Cooperation and
consultation with Mongolian authorities is required.
B 4.1. Meteorological and Hydrological Studies
The Consultant shall review previous hydrological assessment of the Selenge River and
compile and evaluate the existing discharge data of the Selenge River from the gauging
stations Ikh-Uul, Khutag-Undur, Khyalganat, Zuunburen and Sukhbataar, as well as
meteorological data for the project area and Selenge River basin and Baikal Lake. The
Consultant shall conduct an exhaustive quality check of the available river runoff data
(homogeneity of discharge values, size of catchment areas, station ratings, etc.) from
these gauging stations and search for additional data from these five and other gauging
stations. The Consultant shall also search for additional gauging stations at the Selenge
River in Russian part and vicinity of the project.
Based on the available data, a hydrological assessment shall be conducted including the
following components:
Confirm the size of the catchment area of the sites no. 4 and no. 6.
Estimate long-term inflow characteristics of the proposed dam sites
Perform a study for the sediment transportation in the Selenge River.
Analyze the interrelation between groundwater and surface water at dam sites
Investigate dam evaporation.
Identify ice cover and temperature curves of the Selenge River. Identify the design
flood discharges for the dam sites.
If found needed, establish a temporary remote control gauging station near the
dam site for measuring discharges and sediments
B 4.2. Water Consumptions
The Consultant shall identify existing water consumption from towns (like the pumping
station for Erdenet city), rural settlements, mining, industry, agriculture (like the
TiirgiinHundii and BongiinTokhoi irrigation systems) and the environment.
The Consultant shall evaluate the volumes of the current water consumptions and
estimate future development of the water consumptions, and establish inflow series to the
two dam sites that will be representative for the future economic life span of the proposed
HPP.
The Consultant shall liaise with the ESIA consultants to estimate the necessary ecological
flow in the river bed to be released under filling of the dam and operation of the project.
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The ecological flows shall take into account the need of dynamic water flows for
downstream water consumptions and environmental needs.
B 4.3. Climate Change Assessment
The Consultant shall, based on global and regional studies, and climate change
projections, estimate the likely range of climate futures for the period of the economic life
span of the Shuren HPP. These climate change scenarios shall be expressed as percentage
of change in future temperature, precipitation and runoff compared to historical records.
The Consultant shall take this information into account in the conceptual design of the
two site alternatives for Shuren HPP and use them as input to sensitivity analysis for cost
(due to possible necessary adaptive design) and benefits (due to possible changed inflow)
of the project.
B 5. Assessment of power evacuation alternatives and integration to CES
B.5.1 Integration to CES
The Consultant shall, based on the conducted detailed assessment of the future power
demand and likely expansion of the CES, and in coordination with the reservoir operation
modeling and conceptual design of the two alternative sites, determine how the Shuren
HPP is best integrated as a generation source to the future CES.
A key characteristic to be determined is the appropriate plant factors for of the two
alternative sites. The Consultant shall also determine the best configurations of the
generation units, taking into account any need for ancillary services, such as spinning
reserve.
If necessary, the Consultant shall conduct simplified power systemmodelingof the CES to
determine the best future role for the two alternative Shuren HPP plants that can be
constructed at the two identified sites (No. 4 and 6).
B 5.2. Transmission and Grid Connection
The Consultant shall identify the most feasible alignment of the transmission line from
the HPP Shuren to Erdenet to connect to the Central Energy System (CES). This will
include conducting a calculation the energy losses in the transmission line and selecting
an appropriate design of the grid connection based on this calculation, and in accordance
to the Mongolian regulations and standards.
The Consultant shall identify the necessary properties of the substation to transform the
voltage coming from the generators in the power house to the high voltage required for
the transmission line.
In addition to the conceptual design the Consultant shall conduct preliminary expense
budget and implementation schedule for the transmission lines and sub-stations.
B 6. Reservoir Modeling and Power Simulations
B 6.1. Reservoir Operation
The Consultant shall conduct reservoir modeling to estimate the potential power
production of the two alternative sites No. 4 and 6. The modeling shall be done to find the
optimized scheme layout and operation in coordination with the conceptual design of the
dam and power plants, and the assessment of integration of the Shuren plant into the
CES.
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Terms of Reference for a Feasibility Study of
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The Consultant shall determine the total gross storage and surface water area for the dam
alternatives based on the topographical surveys. The available live storage shall be
determined based on the estimated sediment transport in Selenge River and potential
mitigations measures for reservoir siltation. The Consultant shall establish storage
volume curves versus reservoir elevation and how they evolve over time due to project
siltation.
The Consultant shall, based on the hydro-geological assessment and investigations,
estimate potential water losses through seepage.
The Consultant shall model reservoir operations and power production for different dam
and power plant configurations, using the hydrological data (inflow, dam evaporation,
and ecological flow releases) as input. It is anticipated that a series of at least 30 years
will be used to capture the variability in inflow to estimate accurate firm power
production. The reservoir modeling shall also determine the resulting reservoir and
tailrace water levels.
The reservoir model shall be used, together with dam safety aspects, to analyze different
scenarios of filling of the dam alternatives. The results shall describe the anticipated
duration of the filling and the estimated effect on downstream flows.
B 6.2. Flood Routing
The Consultant shall conduct flood routing of the appropriate design flood discharges
through the reservoir, and establish the required discharge capacity of the flood spillway
and operating rules for the reservoir. The flood routing shall be used to identify back
water effects of reservoir and tailrace water levels during extreme floods. The Consultant
shall provide model, methodology, criteria and calibration used in the flood routing, and
present the reservoir operation and simulation studies in a report along with the model,
methodology, criteria, data and results used.
B 7. Conceptual Scheme Layout
B 7.1 Basic Data Defining the Project Design
The Consultants shall define the project design for both alternative sites no. 4 and no. 6
based on existing basic data conditions.
The Consultant shall identify the river bed conditions (elevation, material) along the
proposed dam axis and also bank conditions (elevation, vegetation, rock / soil conditions)
on both sides of the river along the proposed dam axis.
The Consultant shall identify the elevation of the base rock below the river alluvium and
the soil on both river banks, soil and rock characteristics based on field and laboratory
tests. Establish characteristic design values to be used later on in the stability analysis of
the construction.
The Consultant shall identify the permafrost level and permafrost depth at the dam sites.
Develop a cross section of the river valley along the proposed dam axis for both
alternative locations. The cross sections shall show all the available information of the
ground. Flag these cross sections in the topographic maps.
The Consultant shall identify existing features upstream of the dam site that could limit
the reservoir size or require special measures to be protected or removed and replaced
with regard of the reservoir. Those features could be, but not limited to: settlements,
buildings, agriculture or industry facilities, historical landmarks, protected areas, etc.One
such important feature to assess is the existing water supply scheme for Erdenet, which
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may be affected by the proposed dam alternatives. The consultant shall flag these sites in
the topographic maps together with information about the kind of feature, elevation, size,
importance, and make sure that any mitigation measure to protect, remove or replace
these features is included in the total cost estimate of the project.
The Consultant shall identify the seismic activity in the project area. Based on the given
data, establish characteristic design values like peak ground acceleration to be used in the
stability and structural analysis later on. The Consultant shallconsult Mongolian
authorities to confirm these characteristic design values to be used for stability and
structural analysis and to be in compliance with the national and international standards.
The Consultant shall identify the main hydrology design parameters for the Selenge River
at the proposed dam sites. For the stability analysis of the dams, different design flood
events have to be established. The Consultant shall liaise with Mongolian authorities to
confirm these design flood events to be used for stability analysis of the dam and to be in
compliance with the national and international standards.
The Consultant shall identify the climate conditions at the project location (temperature,
humidity).The Consultant shall identify the icing of the river water, when the icing starts,
maximum and average ice thickness and when the melting of the ice on the river starts.
Pay special attention to the local condition, that in the spring season when the highest
river discharges appear, the river is mostly still covered with ice or has floating ice sheets,
so flood events occur in connection with drifting ice.
B 7.2. Dam Design
Based on the defined basic data for both alternative sites no. 4 and no. 6, the Consultant
shall develop the project designs:
Identify the maximum, minimum and the normal reservoir water level for the dam
site.
Identify the required foundation level of the dam, based on a rough stability
analysis and with attention to seepage.
Identify the top level of the dam, based on the established water levels, the
required spillway freeboard and with attention to the international standards and
regulations.
Identify the resulting height of the dam.
Identify the width of the dam, based on the cross section of the river valley at the
proposed dam site.
Identify the resulting size (length and width) and volume of the reservoir for both
sites.
The Consultant shall provide a longitudinal section and a cross section for both
alternative dam sites no. 4 and no. 6, showing the selected height of the dam and the
selected water levels. The Consultant shall investigate the possibility to build a
A Roller Compacted Concrete dam (RCC dam), or
B Concrete Faced Rock fill dam (CFRD)
or any other dam type the Consultant may suggest. At the proposed sites; conduct a
detailed study of alternatives for both construction types, providing the advantages and
disadvantages of both construction types. This study shall contain, but not limited to:
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Terms of Reference for a Feasibility Study of
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construction time, excavation volume, dam stability, overtopping, geometry, apertures
and passages and provide draft drawings for both dam types.
The Consultant shall identify the required dimensions of the flood spillway, based on the
established design flood events. Identify the arrangement of the flood spillway in or
beside the dam (crest spillway or flood bypass). Pay special attention to the situation that
the spillway must be able to safely release the flood discharge at all times, especially at
the end of the wintertime when freezing, flood water and drifting ice occur
simultaneously. A spillway without moveable parts is generally preferred.
The Consultant shall identify the required dimensions of the plunge pool to prevent the
flood water release from eroding the downstream riverbed. The Consultant shall identify
the required number and location of the bottom outlets. It is preferred to have at least two
bottom outlets, providing the possibility of a backup in case of malfunction or blocking of
one bottom outlet. Assess the design of the required armored protection of the bottom
outlets against abrasion to guarantee the durability of these structures.
The Consultant shall, based on the defined active storage volume and the river hydrology,
define the maximum discharge capacity of the hydro power plant. Based on this selection,
the Consultant shall define the number and sizes of turbines. Based on the selected
number of turbines and the resulting maximum discharge per turbine, select the required
dimension of the penstocks and assess the resulting hydraulic losses. Establish an
economic optimization for the selection of the most feasible penstock diameter versus the
hydraulic losses.
The Consultant shall identify the type of penstock pipes (GRP, steel, etc.). Assess the
availability, the costs, the transport facilities and the durability of the possible types of
penstock. Select a final type of penstock and identify the final alignment of the penstock
with regard to the minimum water level and the maximum dead storage level.
The Consultant shall determine following dimensions in power house;
Identify the dimensions of the required intake protection of the penstock. Take the
required protection for aquatic species in the reservoir into account.
Identify the location and dimension of the power house, required for the housing
of the complete turbine equipment.
Identify the required tailrace dimensions (length, width and depth) to safely
release the turbine discharge.
Identify the construction material for the power house.
The Consultant shall establish a rough stability and structural analysis in order to define
the dimensions of bearing structures, walls, floors and ceilings. Include seismic loads into
the static calculations.
B7.3. Stability and Structural Analysis
The stability and structural analysis is intended to determine the integrity of the dam and
connected structures under defined loadings. The Consultant has to agree with the client
and the Mongolian authorities, which national and / or international codes and regulations
apply for the proposed Shuren HPP and which loadings and combination of loadings have
to consider. The Consultant must present a written definition of the agreed codes and
regulations, approved by the concerned Mongolian Authorities.
For the type and location of dam selected, the corresponding structural and stability
analysis shall be performed by the Consultant.
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Terms of Reference for a Feasibility Study of
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B7.4. Dewatering and Water Diversion
The Consultant shall plan the water diversion of the Selenge River during the
construction time in order to enable a secure construction progress a simultaneously
securing the continuing river discharge of the Selenge River.
The Consultant shall set up design discharge values for the Selenge River, the water
diversion has to withstand without putting the construction sites in danger. Prepare
hydraulic calculations based on the available hydrology.
The Consultant shall estimate the volume of the necessary dewatering of the construction
sites, based on calculated seepage values for the ground. Consider sheet piling and similar
measures to minimize seepage. Estimate the required numbers and size of pumps and the
resulting consumption of electricity.
The Consultant shall establish measures to prevent polluted water being pumped out of
the construction site into the Selenge River. Present evacuation procedures and alarm
levels for the construction site regarding possible flood events.
B 7.5. Design of Hydro-Mechanical and Electro-Mechanical Equipment
The Consultant shall define the type, number and capacity of turbines to be installed in
the HPP. Selection based on costs, efficiency, reliability, availability and transport
facilities of the turbines. The arrangement of the turbines must consider sufficient water
coverage at the tailrace, prevent cavitations, offer sufficient protection against icing and
provide sufficient access space for maintenance purposes.
The Consultant shall define the required generators, based on the selected number and
capacity of the turbines. Consider the required capability for connection to the national
grid system and the requested capability of the generators to function as a spinning
reserve.
The Consultant shall define the connection between turbines and generators. The
selection of the generators shall be priory based on choosing the same provider of turbine
and generator equipment.
The Consultant shall identify the required stop and regulating valves, belonging to the
penstock and the turbine equipment. Identify the required closing times of the main valve
in the penstock in order to protect the electro-mechanical equipment, and calculate the
resulting water hammer in the penstock.
The Consultant shall identify the required stop logs and gates at the penstock intakes, the
bottom outlets and the tailrace channels. Conduct a rough structural analysis to identify
the required dimensions and numbers. The Consultant shall identify the required number
and type of cranes to lift the stop logs.
B 7.6. Infrastructure and Access Roads
The Consultant shall identify the required access to permanent installations at the dam
site like the top of the dam, the power house, the stilling basins, the tailrace channel,
workshops, housing facilities, substation, grid connection, fish bypass, etc.The Consultant
shall plan the necessary access roads and infrastructure in accordance with the Mongolian
construction norms and regulations, standards and appropriate environment regulations.
The Consultant shall identify the required access to temporary installations during the
construction time like construction camps, contractor´s plants, supply areas, etc.
The Consultant shall develop requirements for the access roads, based on the size and the
weight of the transported materials and equipment. Develop a plan for transport of
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Terms of Reference for a Feasibility Study of
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oversize and overweight equipment to the project site. Identify the most feasible route
from Erdenet to the project site or from Darkhan-Zuunburen to the project site for
temporary and permanent access, paying attention to existing and required bridges,
culverts and flood protection and possible alignment of the transmission line along the
access road.
B 8. Site Selection
B. 8.1 Costs and Benefits of Alternatives
The Consultant shall summarize all costs and benefits of the two alternative sites and
alternative dam configurations. The investment and operational costs of the alternatives
shall be quantified based on the conceptual scheme layouts. Benefits and the form of
power production and ancillary services shall be estimated. Externalities, such as
environmental and social impacts, including cumulative impacts, shall be summarized.
The Consultant shall coordinate and receive such information on environmental and
social externalities from the parallel ESIA study.
The Consultant shall put the different alternatives into the perspective of planned
construction of other hydropower projects (such as the Eg HPP) and the development of
the CES in general. The pro and cons of how the suggested alternatives would fit into a
phased future development of new generation sources to secure affordable power security
for central Mongolia should be considered and included in the basis for the final
selection.
B 8.2. Multi-criteria Analysis for Site Selection
The Consultant shall use the summarized costs, benefits and externalities as input to a
multi-criteria analysis to evaluate the different sites (no. 4 and 6) and dam configurations.
The multi-criteria analysis shall be a transparent tool that describes which factors have
been included and which weights they have been given.
Based on the multi-criteria analysis the Consultant shall select and motivate the best
option for development of the Shuren HPP.
B 8.3. Site Selection Report and Workshop
All analyses and results that led to the site selection, and the multi-criteria analysis and
final choice of best option for Shuren HPP shall be described in a Site Selection Report.
This report shall be structured with a main report, which summarizes the salient findings
and results, and a number of annexes that describes the results in detail.
The Site Selection Report shall be submitted for review of the Client, Panel of Experts
and the World Bank team. After giving time for review the results shall be presented by
the Consultant in a workshop in Ulan Bataar, to allow discussion and clarification of the
method and results, and feedback to the Consultant. This workshop shall be coordinated
to be held jointly with the presentation of results for the parallel ESIA.
B 9. Feasibility Level Design
B. 9.1 Complementary Surveys and Investigations
The Consultant shall plan and execute any necessary additional assessments, surveys and
investigations required to develop the selected Shuren HPP site to a feasibility design
level, including drawings and draft bill of quantities.
If not conducted previously, the Consultant shall make additional surveys for the chosen
site to develop topographic maps in the scale of 1:25000 for the grid connection, access
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roads and reservoir with elevation accuracy not less than 5 meters, and develop
topographic maps in the scale of 1:5000 and 1:1000 for selective building structures
(dam, power house, substation, etc.) with elevation accuracy not less than 1 meter.
The Consultant shall update and finalize the Geotechnical Baseline Report. Additional
surveys, investigations and laboratory tests for doing so should be conducted. The
seismic assessment shall be updated if needed.
The hydrology, reservoir modeling and power simulations shall be updated if needed.
The design floods shall be confirmed and design of river diversion works and spillway
updated if needed.
B. 9.2 Design, Drawings and Bill of Quantities
The Consultant shall for the feasibility design work in close collaboration with the ESIA
consultant to optimize the engineering design to minimize as much as possible adverse
environmental and social impacts. The feasibility design shall adhere to the most modern
international best practices.
The Consultant shall confirm and finalize the conceptual scheme layout for the selected
sites, conduct design at feasibility level and prepare drawings and technical
specifications. The design and the drawings shall cover all construction parts (access
roads, quarries and camps, diversion works, dam, powerhouse) and the complete electro-
mechanical and hydro-mechanical equipment (turbines, generators, transformers,
substation, and grid connection).
Besides the main components preliminary designed in the site selection stage and
confirmed in this feasibility stage, the Consultant shall develop and design the
communication, data and telemetry control for the selected HPP.The communication
system shall include all sensors, meters and telemetry components required for a
permanent and safe control of the project appropriate to Mongolian and international
conditions and standards.
The Consultant shall establish draft bill of quantity for civil works and equipment for the
various components of the project. Prepare the bill of quantity in a way that it can be used
for future planning and bidding documents.
Set up an implementation schedule for the construction steps and present drawings of the
planned water diversion structures, giving the dimensions of the diversion structures and
of the agreed design discharge values.
B 10. Implementation Plans
B 10.1. Contract and Procurement Planning
The Consultant shall propose the contract lots for civil works and for the electrical and
mechanical equipment, and prepare a procurement strategy.Pre-qualification shall be
taken into account for major contracts for civil works and electrical and mechanical
equipment.
B 10.2. Implementation Schedule
The Consultant shall prepare an implementation schedule of the project, including:
Detailed Design and Financial Close - Detailed design
- Preparations of tender documents
- Negotiations and financial close
- Procurement
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Terms of Reference for a Feasibility Study of
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Preconstruction activities - Preparing access and transportation routes
- Preparing construction site
Construction activities - construction of dam and associated infrastructure
- Installation of equipment
- Implementation of EMP and RAP
Startup activities - Filling of reservoir
- Initial operation
The Consultant shall prepare the implementation schedule is a way that a cash flow
projection calculation can be developed on that basis.
B 10.3. Project Operation Organization
The Consultant shall estimate the required management structure and number of
employees for a proper operation of the HPP.Identify work places for the operating
organization of the HPP that meet functional requirements and including necessary
equipment, instruments and vehicles.
The Consultant shall propose measures to cooperate with the local public communities
during construction of the facilities and make an introduction to the local administrations
and communities.
The Consultant shall plan buildings and facilities for the operation personnel, employee
accommodations and security facilities for the secure operation of the dam and the
reservoir. Include a visitor facility near the dam site for receiving visitors and providing
public information.
B 11. Dam Safety Measures
The rules and regulations for dam structures, set out by the ICOLD shall be observed. In
addition the World Bank Operational Policy OP 4.37 shall be observed, required
documents prepared and procedures undertaken. This would include prepare an
Instrumentation Plan, an Operation and Maintenance Plan and an Emergency
Preparedness Plan.
The Consultant shall prepare a list of Mongolian and accepted international regulations
regarding the construction supervision and quality assurance, operation and maintenance
procedures and emergency procedures to be followed by the developer and the operator
of the HPP.
B 12. Legal Analyses
B 12.1. Laws, Regulations and Electricity Tariff
The Consultant shall review all effective international conventions, treaties, and bilateral
agreements which Mongolia is a party to and domestic laws, policy documents, national
programs essential for the implementation of the project.
Legal review helps to reveal the external and the internal legal factors that may affect the
project implementation, and its cause or justification, to provide an answer to some public
misunderstanding about the project from legal point of view, to correctly evaluate
potential external and internal risks and its factors for the implementation of the project,
to envisage decisive countermeasures against such risks, and to ensure in establishing
legal preconditions for successful implementation of the project.
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Terms of Reference for a Feasibility Study of
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Electricity selling tariff shall be calculated in accordance with the Energy Regulation
Commission adopted in 2005; and Resolution #74,concerning Tariff Rules for
Controlling. In financial and economic calculations, all effective laws and regulations,
taxes and tariffs of Mongolia shall be complied.
The Consultant shall assess the project from perspective of whether the project is eligible
for an international recognition within framework of international programs, such as Man
and the Biosphere sponsored by UNESCO, and the World Heritage Convention due to its
significance and extents; and if it is determined as eligible, then to recommend how to
accomplish such recognition in the international level and its implication in
environmental and social impacts of the project, to determine possible impacts for the
project’s international significance and configuration and financing for the project.
B 12.2 Management and Financing Alternatives
The Consultant shall study the current or newly emerging experiences in the world with
respect of ownership rights for assets created by a project, and/or joint ownership by
several parties or countries and issue a recommendation for the Shuren HPP in that
respect. Recommendations must be made for the involvement of the stakeholders
especially the government.
The Consultant shall make a proposal for the ownership, implementation and operation of
the ShurenHPP,pursuant to the Concession Law of Mongolia, by consortium comprising
of foreign and local entities, and with possible involvement or financing of international
organizations or international private investors. The Consultant shall propose the terms to
operate and maintain the Shuren HPP, taking into account relationship with other water
users.
Since the project is in the concession list adopted by the Government of Mongolia
(Resolution #198 of 2010) pursuant to the Concession Law, the Consultant shall propose
possibilities to attract international financial institutions and donor countries, or
international private capitals, including domestic investments into the project, possible
types of cooperation, or project financing, special project vehicle, its right and duties,
relationship with others, specific issues and scope thereof.
B 13. Financial and Economic Analyses
B13.1. Capital and Investment Costs
All costs related to the construction and implementation of the Shuren HPP shall be
updated based on the feasibility design, draft BoQ and implementation plan. Costs for the
implementation of the EMP, RAP and possible benefit sharing programs shall be
retrieved from the ESIA and included in the total capital cost.
Sources of Project financing for the selected alternative along with targeted weights for
each shall be identified and ranked in the context of current conditions in the global
financial market for Mongolia-related capital.Market-based, realistic Weighted Average
Cost of Capital (WACC) estimates for alternate financing scenarios and alternate project
structures will be analysed.
B 13.2.Operating Expenses
The Consultant shall estimate operating expenses including:
OPEX
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Depreciation
Interest Expense
Labor Costs
Worker’s Compensation
Other Taxes
Fee on Use of Water Resources
Land Utilization
Insurance Cost
Environmental and Social Costs
Other operational costs
B13.3. Direct and Indirect Benefits
The Consultant shall estimate the direct benefits from the power supply generation and
benefitsthe following potential multi-purpose sectors upon implementation of the project:
Animal husbandry and agriculture;
Tourism;
Fish farming.
In addition the economic indirect benefits of the Project shall be analyzed, such as
National energy security, GDP growth rate, reduction of CO2 emissions, job creation, and
production by small and medium enterprises.
B 13.4 Financial and Economic Analyses
The Consultant shall carry out an economic analysis for the proposed Shuren HPP taking
into accounts the above costs and benefits. Indicators such as Net Present Value (NPV),
Benefit Cost (B/C) Ratio, and Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR), ratio verify, and
unit cost of firm energy shall be calculated. Sensitivity analysis shall be applied on
important parameters in order to assess their impact on the viability of the project.
The economic analysis shall assess the Shuren HPP project compared to plausible
alternatives that would deliver the same services, and prove that it is economically the
preferred option for Mongolia. The choice of plausible alternatives should be motivated
based on the power demand and sector review conducted as part of the feasibility study.
The Consultant shall also carry out the financial analysis of proposed Shuren HPP taking
into account the national demand and the costs/benefits identified. In general, the
financial analysis should evaluate the commercial merits of the project under alternative
power market including ownership models, financial packages and fiscal regime. The
Consultant shall, as part of the financial analysis, prepare the cash flow estimate.
B 14. Risk Register
Development of hydropower projects involves various sorts of risks at different stages
viz., planning, design and construction stage. Risk management shall be carried out by
the Consultant through the use of Risk Assessments and Risk Registers. The primary task
is to define various risks, to identify measures to be taken in case the risk materializes and
to allocate the risk to Employer and Employee.
While carrying out the formal Risk Assessments in different stages of the project, various
possible hazards are identified and an evaluation is carried out regarding their potential
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Terms of Reference for a Feasibility Study of
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impact and probability of occurrence together with the response or strategies as
appropriate for preventive and contingent actions and responsibilities etc. Risk
Assessments required at each stage of the project are summarized in a Risk Register.
B 15. Final Recommendation
The Shuren Hydropower Project is a large multi-purpose project with direct and indirect
benefits, as well as direct and indirect impacts. It will become a one-sided view if cost-
recovery, revenue and benefits of the Project are analyzed from only economic point of
view. Therefore, the final recommendation for the Shuren HPP development must be
made on a combination of economic, environmental, social grounds to ensure national
electricity security, indirect benefits and sustainable development.
The Consultant shall, based on the results of the financial and economic analyses, the
identified indirect benefits and impacts, and the identified risks in this Feasibility Study,
and with inputs from the parallel ESIA, make and motivate a final recommendation for
the development of the Shuren HPP.
B 16. Feasibility Report and Workshop
All analyses and results that led to the final recommendation for the development of the
Shuren HPP shall be described in a Feasibility Study Report. This report shall be
structured with a main report, which summarizes the salient findings and results, and a
number of annexes that describes the results in detail.
The Feasibility Study Report shall be submitted for review of the Client, Panel of Experts
and the World Bank team. After giving time for review the results shall be presented by
the Consultant in a workshop in Ulan Bataar, to allow discussion and clarification of the
method and results, and feedback to the Consultant. This workshop shall be coordinated
to be held jointly with the presentation of results for the parallel ESIA.
C. REPORTING REQUIREMENTS AND DELIVERABLES
C1. Deliverables and Reporting
The Feasibility Study and Detailed Environmental and Social Assessment shall be
performed simultaneously under individual agreement with separate Consultants. The
Feasibility Study shall include engineering, technical, financial, economic, legal and
institutional studies used for developing the project concept and justifications for its
implementation. The Environmental and Social Assessment will include information
collected during public consultations. Results from these two works will establish the
basis for decisions on implementation of the project. Deliverables produced as a result of
this TOR will packaged as described in this section.
C1.1. Progress Reporting
All reports listed below should be submitted in English and Mongolian. Unless
otherwise stated, reports are submitted to the World Bank through the MINIS PMU
according to the schedule given below.
Inception Report: The inception report should be submitted in English to the PMU 30
days after Date of Letter Award
Proposed Work Program: The proposed work program should be submitted in English
to the Technical Steering Committee 30 days after Date of Letter Award.
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‘Shuren Hydropower Plant’ Project
Progress Reports: Progress reports should be submitted in English to the PMU monthly,
following contract signature. The progress report should present a very brief overview of
progress in completing the tasks, difficulties in achieving the work as described in the
contract, proposed alternate means to achieve the Project objectives, status of budget and
major scheduled milestones. It is anticipated that progress reports would be 1-3 pages
maximum in length.
C1.2. Main Reports
Site Selection Report: This report shall present all data, information, methods, and
results leading to the final site selection of the Shuren HPP.
Feasibility Study Report: This report shall present all data, information, methods,
and results leading to the final recommendation of the Shuren HPP. The Feasibility Study
report shall include the Feasibility Design, including drawings, technical specifications
and draft Bill of Quantities.
The main reports shall be submitted, discussed and approved by the “Shuren
hydropower plant project working group” under the Ministry of Energy in accordance
with the current Mongolian Law on “Construction” and Regulation on “Design for
construction and its expertise approval, supervision of construction works and
commissioning” which was approved by the Resolution No.185 in 2010.
The PMUwill organize review meetings. Major comments should be incorporated in the
final reports and submitted to the PMU. Main sections of reports that require extensive
re-writing and editing should be re-submitted for verification to the PMU.
C 2. Management of the Feasibility Study
C 2.1 Roles and Responsibilities
Roles and Responsibilities of PMU: The Project ManagementUnit (PMU) is
responsible for providing managerial guidance and monitoring progress of the Feasibility
Study. The PMU shall monitor the fulfillments of the Consultant and shall receive the
reports on the Project from the Consultant for review and approval by related
organizations. The PMU shall monitor the activities of the Consultant all times and shall
report to the Client.
Roles and Responsibilities of the Client: The Client for the Project is the Ministry of
Energy of Mongolia. The Working Group headed by the Vice Minister of the Ministry of
Energy shall perform the monitoring with assistance of PMU during the Feasibility Study
Phase. The Working Group shall review and discuss the reports on Project phases and
shall grant necessary approvals when required.
Roles and Responsibilities of the Consultant: To ensure fulfillment of Feasibility
Study within a timeframe, the Consultant will be fully responsible for regulating their
activities under transparent and united management. The Consultant shall be responsible
for ensuring work interrelations, exchanging official information and organizing meetings
with Consultant’s management and other key and non-key experts—as required--and in a
timely manner. In addition, the Consultant will submit work fulfillments and will hand
over reports to the PMU and the Client in compliance with Work Schedule for discussion
and approval after including their recommendations.
27
Terms of Reference for a Feasibility Study of
‘Shuren Hydropower Plant’ Project
C 2.2 Time Schedule
The work of the Consultant will be supervised by the PMU, which will be the focal point
for coordination with all other ministries, agencies and any other international
institutions. It will also provide liaison and contacts with the academic and applied
research institutions, Civil Society Organizations and Nongovernmental Organizations.
The following table and chart present the timing of major milestone events for the
production of the reports described above. The Consultants Team should begin work
upon contract signature. The Consultants Team should submit a detailed work plan and
schedule with critical milestones with allowance for PMU and external reviews.
The Consultant must provide monthly progress reports in writing during the
implementation of the Project to avoid unexpected problems and to resolve problems in a
timely manner. The inception reports, monthly progress reports and any other reports
must be prepared in English and Mongolian. The Inception Report shall include the work
plan and schedule and be clearly written.
The special and general drafts and final reports will be prepared in both English and
Mongolian. The Draft Final Reports must be printed in Mongolian and be submitted to
the Client, the Ministry of Energy and to the Public Representatives for comments.
N
o Objective Month
1 Submit Inception report 1
2 Participate in Study Launch Workshop 2
3 Submit Draft Site Selection Report 11
4 Participate in Site Selection Workshop 12
5 Submit Final Site Selection Report 12
6 Submit Draft Feasibility Study Report 21
7 Participate in Final Study Workshop 22
8 Submit Final Feasibility Study Report 24
C 2.3. Ownership and Control of Information, Data and Documents
All information and data, all intellectual property rights, ownership, licensing provided to
the Consultant Team shall be used only for this Study and assessment.
Documents and information/data provided to and/or generated by the Consultant Team
shall not be disclosed without the expressed written consent of the PMU.
28
Overview of proposed time schedule and integration of feasibility study and ESIA for the Shuren HPP
Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Feasibility study
Inception, Review of previous studies
methodology
Updated energy demand and sector analysis
Update project area characteristic
*-Updated hydrology and climate change
assessment
*-Updated surveys and geotechnical
investigations
Assessment of power evacuation alternatives
and integration to CES
Reservoir and Power modelling of alternatives
sites
Conceptual Desings of alternative sites
Cost and benefits of alternative sites
Site selection
Complementary assessment, surveys and
geotechnical investigations for selected sites
Feasibility level design of HPP and transmission
lines for selected sites
Formulation of Implementation Plans
Formulation of Dam safety and emergency
preparedness plans
Final cost estimation
Financial and economic analysis
Reporting and finalization of study
ESIA
Inception and Review of Previous studies
Update of project area characteristics
Environmental Impact Assessment of
Alternative Sites
Regional Environmental Assessment
Environmental baseline survey
Socio-economic baseline survey
Cultural heritage survey
Impact assessment of selected project
Cumulative Impacts Assessment
Design Mitigation Measures
Environmental Management Plan
Stakeholder consultation
Reporting and Finalization of Study
Review by international advisory committee
Workshops for presentation of results
29
D. REQUIRMENT FOR THE CONSULTANT TEAM
D1. Consultants Required
The firm or the leading firm/main consultant in case of associations should have international
experience of similar projects in similar climatic conditions in the last 5 years.Consultants
may associate with other firms in the form of a joint venture or a sub consultancy to enhance
their qualifications.
Consultant Team will determine the identity and biography of specialists to be involved in
specific positions within the Consultant Team. Furthermore, the Consultant Team will qualify
main members of the Consultant Team and all essential specialists immediately. Consultant
Team must confirm that all specialists are available to work during the Project
implementation period.
The estimated total input of staff months, shared between international and national experts,
for the Feasibility Study is 115.
D 2.Key Professional Qualifications and Competence for the Assignment
Minimum qualification requirements of Consultant Team specialists for Feasibility study are
presented below:
Team Leader
Education: Advanced University (Masters or higher) Degree in hydropower plant
sector;
Experience: Minimum 20 years professional experience in his field of expertise and at
least 15 years experience in hydro engineering, nature resource management,
strategically, resources management, planning and environmental assessment. The
team leader must have project management experience, as a team leader, regarding
feasibility study for various studies, preferably dealing with large hydropower plant,
and providing guidance and direction to consultants’ activities;
Demonstrated expertise working on similar projects;
Demonstrated experience working with multilateral banks and the application of
World Bank guidelines.
Analytical ability, practical problem-solving skills and resourcefulness in performing
varied tasks in the area;
Demonstrated skills in retrieving, gathering and obtaining information from various
sources;
Sound organizational skills and ability to prioritize and deliver assignments in a
timely manner often under severe time pressures;
Demonstrated initiative in developing practical approaches that improve efficiency
and effectiveness of the project;
Strong inter-personnel skills and commitment to work in a team-oriented, multi-
cultural environment;
Ability to provide guidance to the Working Group;
Language skills: Fluent oral and written skills in English;
30
Computer literacy: Proficient in PC based applications such as Word, Excel and
Power Point etc.
Dam/Civil Engineer
Education: Advanced University (Masters or higher) Degree in hydropower plant
sector;
Experience: Minimum 10 years professional experience in larger dam projects and
water infrastructure project.
Demonstrated expertise working on cold region countries;
Possess a wide array of experience assessing negative influences of hydrology, river,
water resource management, water infrastructure, climate change and its processes;
Demonstrated experience working with multilateral banks and the application of
World Bank guidelines.
Demonstrated skills in retrieving, gathering and obtaining information from various
sources;
Sound organizational skills and ability to prioritize and deliver assignments in a
timely manner often under severe time pressures;
Demonstrated initiative in developing practical approaches that improve efficiency
and effectiveness of the project;
Strong inter-personnel skills and commitment to work in a team-oriented, multi-
cultural environment;
Ability to provide guidance to the Working Group;
Language skills: Fluent oral and written skills in English;
Computer literacy: Proficient in PC based applications such as Word, Excel and
Power Point etc.
Power Engineer
Education: Advanced University (Masters or higher) Degree in hydropower plant
sector;
Experience: Minimum 10 years professional experience in the electrical aspects of
hydropower development, power transmission and power systems.
Demonstrated expertise working on similar projects;
Demonstrated experience working with multilateral banks and the application of
World Bank guidelines.
Demonstrated skills in retrieving, gathering and obtaining information from various
sources;
Sound organizational skills and ability to prioritize and deliver assignments in a
timely manner often under severe time pressures;
Demonstrated initiative in developing practical approaches that improve efficiency
and effectiveness of the project;
31
Strong inter-personnel skills and commitment to work in a team-oriented, multi-
cultural environment;
Ability to provide guidance to the Working Group;
Language skills: Fluent oral and written skills in English;
Computer literacy: Proficient in PC based applications such as Word, Excel and
Power Point etc.
Mechanical Engineer
Education: Advanced University (Masters or higher) Degree in hydropower plant
sector;
Experience: Minimum 10 years professional experience in the mechanical aspects of
hydropower development.
Demonstrated expertise working on similar projects;
Demonstrated experience working with multilateral banks and the application of
World Bank guidelines.
Demonstrated skills in retrieving, gathering and obtaining information from various
sources;
Sound organizational skills and ability to prioritize and deliver assignments in a
timely manner often under severe time pressures;
Demonstrated initiative in developing practical approaches that improve efficiency
and effectiveness of the project;
Strong inter-personnel skills and commitment to work in a team-oriented, multi-
cultural environment;
Ability to provide guidance to the Working Group;
Language skills: Fluent oral and written skills in English;
Computer literacy: Proficient in PC based applications such as Word, Excel and
Power Point etc.
Geotechnical Engineer
Education: Advanced University (Masters or higher) Degree in a relevant discipline;
Experience: Minimum 10 years professional experience in the geotechnical
investigations.
Demonstrated expertise working on similar projects;
Demonstrated experience working with multilateral banks and the application of
World Bank guidelines.
Demonstrated skills in retrieving, gathering and obtaining information from various
sources;
Sound organizational skills and ability to prioritize and deliver assignments in a
timely manner often under severe time pressures;
32
Demonstrated initiative in developing practical approaches that improve efficiency
and effectiveness of the project;
Strong inter-personnel skills and commitment to work in a team-oriented, multi-
cultural environment;
Ability to provide guidance to the Working Group;
Language skills: Fluent oral and written skills in English;
Computer literacy: Proficient in PC based applications such as Word, Excel and
Power Points etc.
Engineering Geologist
Education: Advanced University (Masters or higher) Degree in geology or relevant
discipline;
Experience: Minimum 10 years professional experience in geological investigations
of potential dam sites or similar structures.
Demonstrated expertise working on similar projects;
Demonstrated experience working with multilateral banks and the application of
World Bank guidelines.
Demonstrated skills in retrieving, gathering and obtaining information from various
sources;
Sound organizational skills and ability to prioritize and deliver assignments in a
timely manner often under severe time pressures;
Demonstrated initiative in developing practical approaches that improve efficiency
and effectiveness of the project;
Strong inter-personnel skills and commitment to work in a team-oriented, multi-
cultural environment;
Ability to provide guidance to the Working Group;
Language skills: Fluent oral and written skills in English;
Computer literacy: Proficient in PC based applications such as Word, Excel and
Power Point etc.
Geodesy Engineer
Education: Advanced University (Masters or higher) Degree in Geodesy or relevant
discipline;
Experience: Minimum 10 years professional experience in geodetic engineering;
Demonstrated expertise working on similar projects;
Demonstrated experience working with multilateral banks and the application of
World Bank guidelines.
Demonstrated skills in retrieving, gathering and obtaining information from various
sources;
33
Sound organizational skills and ability to prioritize and deliver assignments in a
timely manner often under severe time pressures;
Demonstrated initiative in developing practical approaches that improve efficiency
and effectiveness of the project;
Strong inter-personnel skills and commitment to work in a team-oriented, multi-
cultural environment;
Ability to provide guidance to the Working Group;
Language skills: Fluent oral and written skills in English;
Computer literacy: Proficient in PC based applications such as Word, Excel and
Power Point etc.
Hydrologist
Education: Advanced university (Masters or higher) degree in hydrologic sciences or
relevant discipline;
Experience: Minimum 10 years professional experience in hydrological survey,
monitoring groundwater levels, using computer technologies to calculate flow
statistics, and reservoir modeling.
Demonstrated expertise working on similar projects;
Demonstrated experience working with multilateral banks and the application of
World Bank guidelines.
Demonstrated skills in retrieving, gathering and obtaining information from various
sources;
Sound organizational skills and ability to prioritize and deliver assignments in a
timely manner often under severe time pressures;
Demonstrated initiative in developing practical approaches that improve efficiency
and effectiveness of the project;
Strong inter-personnel skills and commitment to work in a team-oriented, multi-
cultural environment;
Ability to provide guidance to the Working Group;
Language skills: Fluent oral and written skills in English;
Computer literacy: Proficient in PC based applications such as Word, Excel and
Power Point etc.
Financial and Economic specialist
Education: Advanced University (Masters or higher) finance and economics;
Experience: Minimum 10 years professional experience in project related fields in
developing countries.
Ability to estimate, assess and prepare financial analysis of investment in natural
resource and infrastructure development project.
Demonstrated expertise working on similar projects;
34
Demonstrated experience working with multilateral banks and the application of
World Bank guidelines.
Demonstrated skills in retrieving, gathering and obtaining information from various
sources;
Sound organizational skills and ability to prioritize and deliver assignments in a
timely manner often under severe time pressures;
Demonstrated initiative in developing practical approaches that improve efficiency
and effectiveness of the project;
Strong inter-personnel skills and commitment to work in a team-oriented, multi-
cultural environment;
Ability to provide guidance to the Working Group;
Language skills: Fluent oral and written skills in English;
Computer literacy: Proficient in PC based applications such as Word, Excel and
Power Point etc.
Legal specialist
Education: Advanced University (Masters or higher) law;
Experience: Minimum 10 years professional work experience his profession;
Legal specialist should have experience related to instructions and requirements of the
project and experienced with international development organizations, natural
resource management policy and law in developing countries;
Demonstrated experience working with multilateral banks and the application of
World Bank guidelines.
Demonstrated skills in managing situations typical of developing countries have wide
range interest;
Demonstrated initiative in developing practical approaches that improve efficiency
and effectiveness of the project;
Language skills: Fluent oral and written skills in English;
Computer literacy: Proficient in PC based applications such as Word, Excel and
Power Point etc.
E. PAYMENT SCHEDULE
Ten percent (10%) as an advance payment against the submission of a bank guarantee for
the amount.
Ten percent (10%) upon acceptance of the Inception Report / Work Program and the
Consultation and Communications Program.
Forty (40%) upon acceptance of the Final Site Selection Report.
Twenty percent (20%) upon submission of Draft Feasibility Study Reports.
Twenty percent (20%) upon acceptance of the Final Feasibility Study Reports.
35
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