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DROUGHT OF 2012 NATIONALLY AND ACROSS OHIO
GETTY IMAGES
DROUGHT OF 2012PRE EXISTING CONDITIONS
COMPARISONS TO THE LAST DROUGHT IN 1988 BOTH NATIONALLY AND
ACROSS OHIO
WHERE WE ARE NOW
DROUGHT OF 2012WHAT IS DROUGHT?
METEOROLOGICAL – DEGREE OF DRYNESS DETERMINED BY
THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT – LINKS METEOROLOGICAL
DROUGHT TO
EVAPORTRANSPIRATION, SOIL WATER
DEFICITS, REDUCED GROUND
WATER…
DROUGHT OF 2012WHAT IS DROUGHT?
METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHTAGRICULTURAL DROUGHT
FLASH DROUGHTDROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP OVER
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME (MONTHS OR WEEKS) DUE TO SUDDEN JUMPS IN
TEMPERATURES
BACK IN 2011…
BACK IN 2011…
BACK IN 2011…
BACK IN 2011…
BACK IN 2011…
BACK IN 2011…
END OF YEAR SUMMARYYEAR ENDED WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS GREAT PLAINS AND THE OHIO VALLEY
SOIL MOISTURE IN OHIO WAS ABOVE NORMAL, NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN PARTS OF GREAT PLAINS
END OF YEAR SUMMARYYEAR ENDED WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS GREAT PLAINS AND THE OHIO VALLEY
SOIL MOISTURE IN OHIO WAS ABOVE NORMAL, NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN PARTS OF GREAT PLAINS
WINTER 2011-2012 FEATURED WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL SNOWFALL
SIGNS OF DROUGHT EXPANSION BEGAN TO APPEAR
LATE 2011 PATTERN
LATE 2011-WINTER 2012 PATTERN
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES START TO EXPAND, MERGE. TROUGH FLATTENS
VERY WARM WINTER IN CORN BELT
VERY WARM WINTER - ALL OF OHIO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURESWERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CONTINENT
LARGE VARIATIONS IN SOIL MOISTURE FROM OHIO VALLEY TO CORN BELT BY LATE JANUARY
EARLY JANUARY PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATE LA NINA
EARLY JANUARY PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATE LA NINAAccording to Dr. Klaus Wolter, University of Colorado (
www.esrl.noaa.gov), “…Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is based on 6 main
observed variable over the tropical Pacific.”
EARLY JANUARY PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATE LA NINAAccording to Dr. Klaus Wolter, University of Colorado (
www.esrl.noaa.gov), “…Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is based on 6 main
observed variable over the tropical Pacific.”
Sea Level PressureZonal and Meridional components of the surface windSea Surface TemperatureSurface Air TemperatureTotal cloudiness/fraction of the sky
RED = EL NINOBLUE = LA NINA
RED = EL NINOBLUE = LA NINA
RIDGE DOMINATED WINTER PATTERNSTRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY BY MARCH
RIDGE DOMINATED WINTER PATTERNSTRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY BY MARCH
HISTORICALLY WARM MARCH!
FLASH DROUGHT TRIGGER!
RIDGE DOMINATED WINTER PATTERNSTRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY BY MARCH
RIDGE DOMINATED WINTER PATTERNSTRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY BY MARCH
RIDGE DOMINATED WINTER PATTERNSTRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY BY MARCH
HOW WARM WAS MARCH 2012?MARCH WAS THE WARMEST SINCE RECORD
KEEPING BEGAN IN THE CONTIGUOUS US SURFACE DATA & SATELLITE DATA (1979)
WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER MARCHES IN PAST DROUGHT YEARS (1930, 1931, 1953, 1954, 1988) THIS PAST MARCH BLOW THEM ALL AWAY!
HOW WARM WAS MARCH 2012? RANKED DROUGHT YEARS
1930 1931 1953 1954 1988 2012
193019311953195419882012
1st
48th
87th
23rd
85th77th
SURFACE DATA - NCDC
HOW WARM WAS MARCH 2012?MARCH WAS THE WARMEST SINCE RECORD KEEPING
BEGAN AT ALL REPORTING STATIONS IN OHIO (1871).
NEXT WARMEST MARCH IN ANY DROUGHT YEAR WAS IN TOLEDO IN 1953 (RANKED 30TH)
ONLY 3 OTHER MARCHES IN THE DROUGHT YEARS AT ANY REPORTING STATION IN OHIO
CRACKED THE TOP 50 ALL TIME (1870s)
ANOTHER DRIVER OF DROUGHT
MARCH PRECIPITATION
MARCH PRECIPITATION
SPRING SOIL MOISTURE
SPRING SOIL MOISTURE
SPRING SOIL MOISTURE
EARLY SUMMER SOIL MOISTURE
EARLY SUMMER SOIL MOISTURE
FLASH DROUGHT OVER OHIO
FLASH DROUGHT OVER OHIO
HOW DID 2012 COMPARE TO PAST DROUGHTS ACROSS OHIO?
1988 MONTHLY DROUGHT INDICESFOR 5 OF THE 10 OHIO CLIMATE DIVISIONS
2012 DROUGHT CAME ON MUCH FASTER AFTER ABNORMALLY MOIST CONDITIONS
DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY
DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY
DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY
DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY
DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY
DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY
COURTESY: WUNDERGROUND.COM
DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY
DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY
DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY
ANY CHANGES AT SUMMER’S END?
ANY CHANGES AT SUMMER’S END?
ANY CHANGES AT SUMMER’S END?
ANY CHANGES AT SUMMER’S END?
CORE OF THE DROUGHT SHIFTED WEST BY EARLY FALL
CORE OF THE DROUGHT SHIFTED WEST BY EARLY FALL
CORE OF THE DROUGHT SHIFTED WEST BY EARLY FALL
CORE OF THE DROUGHT SHIFTED WEST BY EARLY FALL
CORE OF THE DROUGHT SHIFTED WEST BY EARLY FALL
DROUGHT OF 2012 vs DROUGHT OF 1988UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DROUGHT OF 2012 vs DROUGHT OF 1988UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DROUGHT OF 2012 vs DROUGHT OF 1988UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
2012 EASTERN TROUGH MUCH STRONGER IN EARLY FALL THAN IN 1988
DROUGHT 2012 RECAPABNORMALLY WET 2011; DROUGHT ALREADY
UNDERWAY IN TEXASMILD WINTER 2011-12; REDUCED SNOW
PACK/MOUNTAINS
FIRST TRIGGER: RECORD SETTING WARMTH IN MARCHFASTER SNOWMELT; CONDITIONS DRIED OUT FAST IN
CENTRAL US
DROUGHT 2012 RECAPRIDGE CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN WHICH FEED THE
HEAT. THIS MADE CONDITIONS WORSE WHICH FEED MORE HEAT WHICH STRENGTHENED THE RIDGE…FEEDBACK LOOP!
OHIO’S 2012 DROUGHT CAME ON FASTER THAN ANY OTHER DROUGHT.
OVERALL PATTERN IMPROVED IN THE FALL.
WHERE ARE WE NOW?
HOW MUCH RAIN IS NEEDED TO END THE DROUGHT?
OHIO HAS NO DROUGHT!
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