DROUGHT OF 2012 NATIONALLY AND ACROSS OHIO

GETTY IMAGES

DROUGHT OF 2012PRE EXISTING CONDITIONS

COMPARISONS TO THE LAST DROUGHT IN 1988 BOTH NATIONALLY AND

ACROSS OHIO

WHERE WE ARE NOW

DROUGHT OF 2012WHAT IS DROUGHT?

METEOROLOGICAL – DEGREE OF DRYNESS DETERMINED BY

THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL

AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT – LINKS METEOROLOGICAL

DROUGHT TO

EVAPORTRANSPIRATION, SOIL WATER

DEFICITS, REDUCED GROUND

WATER…

DROUGHT OF 2012WHAT IS DROUGHT?

METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHTAGRICULTURAL DROUGHT

FLASH DROUGHTDROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP OVER

A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME (MONTHS OR WEEKS) DUE TO SUDDEN JUMPS IN

TEMPERATURES

BACK IN 2011…

BACK IN 2011…

BACK IN 2011…

BACK IN 2011…

BACK IN 2011…

BACK IN 2011…

END OF YEAR SUMMARYYEAR ENDED WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION

ACROSS GREAT PLAINS AND THE OHIO VALLEY

SOIL MOISTURE IN OHIO WAS ABOVE NORMAL, NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN PARTS OF GREAT PLAINS

END OF YEAR SUMMARYYEAR ENDED WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION

ACROSS GREAT PLAINS AND THE OHIO VALLEY

SOIL MOISTURE IN OHIO WAS ABOVE NORMAL, NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN PARTS OF GREAT PLAINS

WINTER 2011-2012 FEATURED WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL SNOWFALL

SIGNS OF DROUGHT EXPANSION BEGAN TO APPEAR

LATE 2011 PATTERN

LATE 2011-WINTER 2012 PATTERN

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES START TO EXPAND, MERGE. TROUGH FLATTENS

VERY WARM WINTER IN CORN BELT

VERY WARM WINTER - ALL OF OHIO

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURESWERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CONTINENT

LARGE VARIATIONS IN SOIL MOISTURE FROM OHIO VALLEY TO CORN BELT BY LATE JANUARY

EARLY JANUARY PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATE LA NINA

EARLY JANUARY PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATE LA NINAAccording to Dr. Klaus Wolter, University of Colorado (

www.esrl.noaa.gov), “…Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is based on 6 main

observed variable over the tropical Pacific.”

EARLY JANUARY PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATE LA NINAAccording to Dr. Klaus Wolter, University of Colorado (

www.esrl.noaa.gov), “…Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is based on 6 main

observed variable over the tropical Pacific.”

Sea Level PressureZonal and Meridional components of the surface windSea Surface TemperatureSurface Air TemperatureTotal cloudiness/fraction of the sky

RED = EL NINOBLUE = LA NINA

RED = EL NINOBLUE = LA NINA

RIDGE DOMINATED WINTER PATTERNSTRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY BY MARCH

RIDGE DOMINATED WINTER PATTERNSTRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY BY MARCH

HISTORICALLY WARM MARCH!

FLASH DROUGHT TRIGGER!

RIDGE DOMINATED WINTER PATTERNSTRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY BY MARCH

RIDGE DOMINATED WINTER PATTERNSTRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY BY MARCH

RIDGE DOMINATED WINTER PATTERNSTRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY BY MARCH

HOW WARM WAS MARCH 2012?MARCH WAS THE WARMEST SINCE RECORD

KEEPING BEGAN IN THE CONTIGUOUS US SURFACE DATA & SATELLITE DATA (1979)

WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER MARCHES IN PAST DROUGHT YEARS (1930, 1931, 1953, 1954, 1988) THIS PAST MARCH BLOW THEM ALL AWAY!

HOW WARM WAS MARCH 2012? RANKED DROUGHT YEARS

1930 1931 1953 1954 1988 2012

193019311953195419882012

1st

48th

87th

23rd

85th77th

SURFACE DATA - NCDC

HOW WARM WAS MARCH 2012?MARCH WAS THE WARMEST SINCE RECORD KEEPING

BEGAN AT ALL REPORTING STATIONS IN OHIO (1871).

NEXT WARMEST MARCH IN ANY DROUGHT YEAR WAS IN TOLEDO IN 1953 (RANKED 30TH)

ONLY 3 OTHER MARCHES IN THE DROUGHT YEARS AT ANY REPORTING STATION IN OHIO

CRACKED THE TOP 50 ALL TIME (1870s)

ANOTHER DRIVER OF DROUGHT

MARCH PRECIPITATION

MARCH PRECIPITATION

SPRING SOIL MOISTURE

SPRING SOIL MOISTURE

SPRING SOIL MOISTURE

EARLY SUMMER SOIL MOISTURE

EARLY SUMMER SOIL MOISTURE

FLASH DROUGHT OVER OHIO

FLASH DROUGHT OVER OHIO

HOW DID 2012 COMPARE TO PAST DROUGHTS ACROSS OHIO?

1988 MONTHLY DROUGHT INDICESFOR 5 OF THE 10 OHIO CLIMATE DIVISIONS

2012 DROUGHT CAME ON MUCH FASTER AFTER ABNORMALLY MOIST CONDITIONS

DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY

DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY

DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY

DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY

DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY

DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY

COURTESY: WUNDERGROUND.COM

DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY

DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY

DROUGHT CHRONOLOGY

ANY CHANGES AT SUMMER’S END?

ANY CHANGES AT SUMMER’S END?

ANY CHANGES AT SUMMER’S END?

ANY CHANGES AT SUMMER’S END?

CORE OF THE DROUGHT SHIFTED WEST BY EARLY FALL

CORE OF THE DROUGHT SHIFTED WEST BY EARLY FALL

CORE OF THE DROUGHT SHIFTED WEST BY EARLY FALL

CORE OF THE DROUGHT SHIFTED WEST BY EARLY FALL

CORE OF THE DROUGHT SHIFTED WEST BY EARLY FALL

DROUGHT OF 2012 vs DROUGHT OF 1988UPPER LEVEL PATTERN

DROUGHT OF 2012 vs DROUGHT OF 1988UPPER LEVEL PATTERN

DROUGHT OF 2012 vs DROUGHT OF 1988UPPER LEVEL PATTERN

2012 EASTERN TROUGH MUCH STRONGER IN EARLY FALL THAN IN 1988

DROUGHT 2012 RECAPABNORMALLY WET 2011; DROUGHT ALREADY

UNDERWAY IN TEXASMILD WINTER 2011-12; REDUCED SNOW

PACK/MOUNTAINS

FIRST TRIGGER: RECORD SETTING WARMTH IN MARCHFASTER SNOWMELT; CONDITIONS DRIED OUT FAST IN

CENTRAL US

DROUGHT 2012 RECAPRIDGE CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN WHICH FEED THE

HEAT. THIS MADE CONDITIONS WORSE WHICH FEED MORE HEAT WHICH STRENGTHENED THE RIDGE…FEEDBACK LOOP!

OHIO’S 2012 DROUGHT CAME ON FASTER THAN ANY OTHER DROUGHT.

OVERALL PATTERN IMPROVED IN THE FALL.

WHERE ARE WE NOW?

HOW MUCH RAIN IS NEEDED TO END THE DROUGHT?

OHIO HAS NO DROUGHT!