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Operational Hydrologic Forecasts Challenges at the North Central River Forecast Center. 18 November 2013 First Vinogradov’s Conference St. Petersburg, Russia. Presentation Outline. Review of the Forecasting Process Forecasting Centers NCRFC Highlights Forecasting the Red River Challenges - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Operational Hydrologic Forecasts Operational Hydrologic Forecasts Challenges at the North Central River Challenges at the North Central River
Forecast CenterForecast Center
18 November 2013First Vinogradov’s Conference
St. Petersburg, Russia
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Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline
• Review of the Forecasting Process• Forecasting Centers• NCRFC Highlights
• Forecasting the Red River• Challenges
• Opportunities
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NCRFC Forecasting ProcessNCRFC Forecasting Process
• Review of the Forecasting Process• Forecasting Centers• NCRFC Highlights
• Forecasting the Red River• Challenges
• Opportunities
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National Centers for National Centers for Environmental PredictionEnvironmental Prediction
Weather Prediction Center
Ocean Prediction Center
Climate Prediction Center
Environmental Modeling Center
Aviation Weather CenterKansas City, Missouri
NCEP Central OperationsStorm Prediction CenterNorman, Oklahoma
Space Weather Prediction CenterBoulder, Colorado
College Park,Maryland
Tropical Prediction Center(National Hurricane Center)
Miami, Florida
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Weather Forecast OfficesWeather Forecast Offices
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River Forecast CentersRiver Forecast Centers
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NCRFC Area of ResponsibilityNCRFC Area of ResponsibilityForecast Point Locations
426 Forecast Points
1173 Sub-watersheds Major drainages
▸Hudson Bay▸Mississippi▸Great Lakes
Hudson Bay Drainage
Great Lakes
Drainage
Mississippi R.
Drainage
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Forecasting ProcessForecasting Process
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Forecasting the Red RiverForecasting the Red River
• Review of the Forecasting Process• Forecasting Centers• NCRFC Highlights
• Forecasting the Red River• Challenges
• Opportunities
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1989 Spring Runoff Forecast1989 Spring Runoff Forecast
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2006 Spring Runoff Forecast2006 Spring Runoff Forecast
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2009 Spring Runoff Forecast2009 Spring Runoff Forecast
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2010 Spring Runoff Forecast2010 Spring Runoff Forecast
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2011 Spring Runoff Forecast2011 Spring Runoff Forecast
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2013 Spring Runoff Forecast2013 Spring Runoff Forecast
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1989 Spring Runoff Forecast1989 Spring Runoff Forecast
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Red River Spring Melt Red River Spring Melt Forecast: our conclusionForecast: our conclusion
• NCRFC had the right Temperature and Precipitation forecasts from NCEP
• Yet, the Snow-17 and Sacramento Models greatly over-predicted the crest and the runoff volume at Fargo
• Why?
• Drought conditions during Summer and Fall: development of macropores on the clay?
• Effect of subsurface drains is not included in the NWS models• Effect of surface ponding is not included in the NWS models
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Summary and Working Summary and Working HypothesisHypothesis
• Traditionally, the NWS models under-forecasted the Red River of the North flows during the Spring Runoff events
• Drought seems to be playing an important role on a watershed subject to climate extremes: (-40C to +40C) by compacting the Fargo Clay soil and creating large preferential flow paths, not modeled under the current hydrology models
• Heavy snow during the winter time covers the preferential flow paths and blocks rapid infiltration through them in fast-snow-melting events (1989). During slow events (2013), the soil thaws, and opens the preferential flow paths to fast infiltration.
• It is unknown what the effect of the tile drains is on the overall shape of the hydrograph. A major problem is to identify where the drains are, and how they are operated.
• Flooded fields in areas blocked by road embankments also contribute to excessive infiltration.
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Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline
• Review of the Forecasting Process• Forecasting Centers• NCRFC Highlights
• Forecasting the Red River• Challenges
• Opportunities
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OpportunitiesOpportunities• Understand the hydrologic cycle in soils like the Fargo clay• Use remote sensing techniques to identify:
• Location and hydrologic/hydraulic properties of tile drains/soil/crop in farms (where is the water going?)
• Ponded fields, volume of water and rates of release (where is the water going?)
• Develop new models, or adapt existing models to represent the hydrologic processes, both natural and man-made, on the Red River Watershed.
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Hydrograph ModelHydrograph ModelPossible Changes?
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Thank you!Thank you!
Questions?
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HyperlinksHyperlinks
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Red River Soil MapRed River Soil Map
Courtesy Prof. David Hopkins, NDSU
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Bubbles in a Flooded FieldBubbles in a Flooded Field
Courtesy Fargo Firefighter, via Grand Forks WFO
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Infiltration Test at Campbell, MNInfiltration Test at Campbell, MN
Courtesy Roy Mayeda, Campbell HS Science Teacher
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Red River Soil ProfilesRed River Soil Profiles
Courtesy Prof. David Hopkins, NDSU
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Red River Soil Prismatic ColumnsRed River Soil Prismatic Columns
Courtesy Prof. David Hopkins, NDSU
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Fargo Clay SoilFargo Clay Soil
Courtesy Prof. David Hopkins, NDSU
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Farm Tile DrainsFarm Tile Drains
• Question: how many miles of tile drains have been installed on the Bois de Sioux River (5.2% of the Red River above Pembina)
• (Hint: Fargo has 850 km of city streets and Grand Forks has about 390 km)
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Courtesy Prof. David Hopkins, NDSU
Tile Drain Under ConstructionTile Drain Under Construction
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