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Overview of the VALMER scenario process. Dr Olivia Langmead Marine Biological Association. Management Scenarios. Develop plausible scenarios of alternative future management scenarios – horizon scanning - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Overview of the VALMER scenario process
Dr Olivia Langmead Marine Biological Association
Management Scenarios Develop plausible scenarios of alternative future
management scenarios – horizon scanning We are interested in human activities that leave a footprint
on the subtidal sediment habitats. The overall aim is to compare the difference in the value of
the seabed as fish habitat under different scenario conditions
Management ScenariosThis may comprise new management measures for existing activities that changes the intensity or location of them (e.g. designation of rMCZs).
Management ScenariosThis may comprise new activities such as:• Cable laying• Renewables installations• Port expansion• Aggregate dredgingOr combinations of both new activities and new management
Scenario definitionEach scenario will have: a name e.g. ‘rMCZs all designated’ a storyline describing what this means in terms of
activities in the NDBR e.g. in ‘rMCZs all designated’ this might mean a suite of measures restricting human activities that are plausible and in line with the listed features for the rMCZs. This may cause other changes, for example displacement of fishing activity.
A series of associated pressure maps that show changes in the activities in terms of intensity and location e.g. if it was decided that towed gear was to be excluded from all rMCZs, would this be displaced to somewhere else? Would potting density increase in rMCZs? Or just the coastal ones?
Modelling changes in subtidal sedimentary habitats and their
value Pressure maps will be used as input to a network model to work out what effect these changes would have on the value of the seabed habitat in terms of supporting fisheries production
Current activities Pressures Seabed
habitats Fish CurrentValue(£)
Management scenario #1 Pressures Seabed
habitats Fish Value(£)
Management scenario #2 Pressures Seabed
habitats Fish Value(£)
Stakeholder group Network model
Marginal change in
value
With special thanks to all our partners and funders
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