P. M. Grant 17 November 1998 The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology Paul M....

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

The Energy-Environment Problem and

Superconductivity TechnologyPaul M. Grant

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

Mega-Cities

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

The “Trilemma”

• Economic Growth

• Energy Consumption

• Conservative & Environment

“…to save the earth andassure the survival of humanity.”

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

Energy Civilization

Year (Modern Era)

Rel

ativ

e U

nits

Nuclear

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

Economic Growth &Energy Consumption

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

Global Energy Consumption

Source: International Energy Outlook: 1998

US Energy Information Agency

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

Elements of the Trilemma

Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse…Albrecht Duerer

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

North American Grid

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

US Energy Flow - 1995

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

Electricity & Energy Conservation

E/GNP (index: 1900=100) Electricity (%)

E/GNP ratio

Electricityfraction

Source: Electricity in the American Economy, Sam H. Schurr, et al., 1990

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

50

40

30

20

10

150

130

110

90

70

50

2010

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

US Electricity Flow: 1994

1 Quad = 0.29 TkWh

0.28 TkWh

0.15 TkWh

3.24 TkWh

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

Electricity Paradigmand Superconductivity

• Generation/Storage– Generators, SMES, Flywheels

• Transmission/Distribution– Cables, Transformers, FCLs

• Delivery/End Use– Motors, Electromagnets

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

Electricity-Transportation Analogy

Electricity Transportation

· Fuel

· Generation

· Natural Resources

· Manufacturing/Agriculture

· Transmission Electrons· Distribution

· Interstate Highways Trucks· Regional Freeways

· End Uses· Lighting· Rotating Machinery· Appliances

· Retail Sales· Home Depot· Sears· Safeway

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

U.S. ElectricityProduction/Loss Summary

TkWh % in T&D Lossand In-Plant

Use

Revenue@

$0.10/kWh(B$)

No. of 500MW PlantEquivalents

Capital Cost@ $800/kW

(B$)

Total 3.24 324 740 296

T&DLosses

0.28 8% 28 63 25

In-PlantUsed

0.15 5% 15 35 14

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

Superconductivityand Efficiency

1994 2014@ 2%/yr

2014Plants Saved

0.2%Penetration4× Efficiency

Total 740 360

T&D Losses 63 31 11

In-House Use 35 17 6

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

North American CH4

There’s Lots of It

3D SeismicImaging PlusDirectionalDrilling

50 Years at‘97 Prices!

EPRI

Natural Gas IndustryNatural Gas IndustryEstimates of Remaining ReservesEstimates of Remaining Reserves

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

24002400

20002000

16001600

12001200

800800

400400

00

3D Seismic Imaging3D Seismic Imaging

EPRI

TcfTcf

TrendlineTrendlineGRIPGC

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

Gas or Electricity?Pipes or Wires?

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

Distributed Generation

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

MicroTurbines

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

MicroTurbines

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

Distributed Generation:US &Europe

• Use widespread NG pipeline network• Generation plants sited locally

– Community of 60,000: 50-100 MW– Subdivision of 1-2000: 3-5 MW– Single Family Dwelling: 20-30 kW

(100,000 btu/hr)

• Some level of storage required• “Loosely” connected to grid

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

Renewables

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

“Fuel-Head” and/orNuclear Generation

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

Power by HTSC:Southeast Asia

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

1967 SC Cable !

100 GW dc, 1000 km !

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

The SuperconductingElectricity Pipe!

I

-V

Ground

Structural Support

SuperconductingElectricityPipeline

ThermalInsulation

ElectricalInsulation

Superconductor(-V)

Superconductor(+V)

+VI

LiquidNitrogen

• Total Cryo System

• Power: 5 GW dc

• Cost: < Gas, HVDC > 500 Miles

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

Operating Parameters

Capacity 50 kA, ±50 kV; %GMW

Length 1610 km

Temperature Rise,1 K every 10 km, 65 K,1 W/m heat input

21,600 liters LN2/hr,100 kW coolers, 120gal/min

Vacuum 10-5-10-4 torr 10 stations/10 km need200 kW

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

Gas/HVDC Comparison

Marginal Cost of Electricity (Mid Value Fuel Costs)

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2.20

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Miles

c/k

Wh

LVDC ($5.5/kA-m @ 65K)

LVDC ($10/kA-m @ 77K)

HVDC

gas pipeline

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

Adaptation

Over 10,000 feared dead andmissing in Nicaragua andHonduras from Hurricane Mitch. Many more withoutshelter.

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

November 10, 1998THE FIRST BIG SNOWSTORMof the season swept across the northern Plains onTuesday, shutting down a major highway and sending hundreds of cars skidding into ditches. It also spun off thunderstormsthat flattened houses in aMissouri university town.

One person was killed in a car crash in Minnesota,

where up to a foot of snow and 40 mph wind were

expected by Tuesday night.

The storm dumped up to 2 feet of snow in the Colorado Rockies, knocking out power to 10,000 people around Durango, Colo.

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

The Standard Model

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

Low Field VHLC Prototype

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

3 TeV VHLCBooster Siting

~ 150 m

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

P. M. Grant 17 November 1998

The Energy-Environment Problem and Superconductivity Technology

The Future

700 K !

May, 2028