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Peak Car?
Anne Bastian, CTS/KTH
Source: OECD International Transport Forum, Trends in the transport sector 2012
Forecasting in 1997
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Billion car km in Sweden per year
National travel survey
SIKA annual report
GDP index, fixed prices
Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, SIKA Transportarbete 1950-2012, SCB for GDP
?
Forecasting in 1997
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Billion car km in Sweden per year
SIKA forecast, based on 1997 dataNational travel surveySIKA annual reportGDP index, fixed prices
+ 33% until 2010
Economic growth-> higher incomes-> more cars-> more and longer trips ->more km
Souces: RVU/RES Sweden, SIKA Transportarbete 1950-2012, SCB for GDP,PERSONTRANSPORTERNAS UTVECKLING TILL 2010 reported by SIKA 2001
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Billion car km in Sweden per year
SIKA forecast, based on 1997 dataNational travel surveyBilprovningen SIKA annual reportGDP index, fixed prices
Today’s data
Souces: RVU/RES Sweden, SIKA Transportarbete 1950-2012, SCB for GDP,PERSONTRANSPORTERNAS UTVECKLING TILL 2010 reported by SIKA 2001, Trafikanalys körsträckor 1999-2012
Why is it happening?
Lifestyles
Investments and Policy
Technology
Demography Urbanization
Economy
Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, daily personal travel survey
Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, daily personal travel survey
Souce: RVU/RES Sweden
We keep having cars
…but we drive them somewhat less
Source: Trafikanalys, based on bilprovningensource: Trafikanalys, Bilprovningen and population counts from SCB
Single man student
no childrenage 20
city apartment in 2012
Who drives how much compared to him?
+-
Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, dailly personal travel survey, tobit regression coefficients for the car driver km, no interaction effects included
effects significant at 95% +
Urbanization reduces national car km per person
• Accept uncertainty, prioritize flexible options• Prepare for change in tax intakes / financing• Public transit gains importance
• If car use declines, design for car-free access • If car use increases, manage demand
• Policy effect / potential to steer future is greater than assumed
Policy implications
Peak Car?
Anne Bastian, CTS/KTH
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