Photo Seattle Times, 9/2012 Use of Advanced Dispersion Modeling Examples for the Northwest Susan...

Photo Seattle Times, 9/2012

Use of Advanced Dispersion Modeling

Examples for the Northwest

Susan O’Neill, Research Scientist USDA Forest Service, AirFire Team

FireInfo

Fuels

Total Consumption

TimeRate

Emissions

PlumeRise

Dispersion /Trajectories

SMARTFIRE2IRWINRx SysManualOther FCCS

FCCS-LFNFDRSHardyGVDSLANDFIRE*Ag*Other

CONSUME 3FOFEMFEPSEPMFLAMBEFINNClearSky (Ag)*Satellite*Other

Rx / WFFEPSFOFEMEPMWRAPIdealizedManualOther

FEPSLiteratureEPMFOFEMFLAMBEFINNOther

BriggsSEVManualOther

HYSPLITCalPuffCMAQVSMOKE

BlueSky Modeling Framework v 3.5

Large uncertainties exist with each modeling step

Met

WRFMM5NARRStation dataIdealized

Models Available

Online

BlueSky Wildfire Operational Runshttp://www.airfire.org/data/bluesky-daily/

BlueSky Playground – Do your own smoke (PM2.5) modelinghttp://playground.airfire.org/

NOAA HYSPLIT (Dispersion and Trajectories)http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/HYSPLIT.php

AIRPACT (Physical and Chemical processes)http://lar.wsu.edu/%5C/airpact/

“Picking a model of choice for the day is a little like speed-dating: too little time/information to make up the mind leading to regrets by the end of the date/shift.” - Wes Adkins, Meteorologist, National Weather Service, Juneau, AK

Daily BlueSky Production Runs1/31/2015 Satellite Fire Detections

http://www.airfire.org/data/bluesky-daily/

1.33 km

4 km

2 km

6 km

4 km4 km, 12 km

12 km1 km

The website provides information on status of the runs

Successful! Running late….

No Fires

http://www.airfire.org/data/bluesky-daily/

Failures show up in red.

Daily BlueSky Production Runs1/31/2015 Satellite Fire Detections & PM2.5, 12km

http://www.airfire.org/data/bluesky-daily/

Carlton Complex Washington State 2014

250,000 acres

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Washington_state_wildfires

8/4/2014 6am

12 km NWS NAM1.33 km UW WRF4 km AIRPACT

8/4/2014 Noon

12 km NWS NAM1.33 km UW WRF4 km AIRPACT

Carlton Complex

August 2014

Washington Smoke BlogOn this gorgeous, clear day with no smoke, let's take a look at the differences between two air quality monitors located less than 9 miles apart in the same Methow Valley. The blue graphs indicate 1-hr average concentrations of PM2.5 while the red data points are 24-hr averages. Note that while the 24-hr values trended rather similar for the two sites (expected as they are spatially close) the peak 1-hr values differed greatly! Posted by Mike Broughton, FWS, ARA

Carlton Complex 2014080400Z, 8/4/2014 6am, 1.33 km Domain

Winthrop

Twisp

Carlton Complex 2014080400Z, 8/4/2014 6am, 12 km Domain

Winthrop

Twisp

BlueSky Playground – allows users to do custom runsplayground.airfire.org

NOAA HYSPLIT Dispersion

Trajectory – Simulates where a parcel of air would travel, given: A Release Location Release Height Date and Time

Many meteorological choices

http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/HYSPLIT.php

Bend, Oregon Smoke Intrusions

Project Gain a better understanding

of meteorological conditions around Bend to minimize risk of smoke intrusions.

Improve our understanding of the smoke dispersion model performance.

Field Work Fall 2014 Spring 2015

Monitors Meteorological

Stations E-Samplers

(PM2.5) Modeling

1km 4km

NWS 1km

10/6/2014 5am

PNW 4km

10/6/2014 5am

Current & Future Work/Activities

BlueSky Canada & include Canadian Emissions

NOAA HYSPLIT – Updating BSFBlueSky-liteUpdated Emission FactorsContinue working with the Interagency

Wildfire Air Quality Response ProgramSF2 integration with IRWIN

Upcoming ConferenceIAWF 13th International Wildland Fire Safety Summit and 4th Human Dimensions of Wildland Fire,

Boise, IDApril 20-24

Workshop: Wildland Fire Smoke Health Effects Research and Tools to Inform Public Health Policy and Recommendations (8:30 am 4/20/2015)

https://inawf.memberclicks.net/upcoming-conferences

Thank you!

Susan O’Neillsmoneill@fs.fed.ussusan.m.oneill@gmail.com 206-732-7851

Many thanks to a cast of thousands (OK, maybe 10’s). Here’s an incomplete list (in no particular order):

Sue Ferguson Janice PetersonSim LarkinMiriam RorigSusan O’Neill Robert SolomonCandace Krull Joel DubowyRamesh Narasimhan Pete LahmRoger Ottmar Susan PrichardSonoma Tech, Inc.