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4 October 2016
PNS Soybean Workgroup
Nico Hawkins General Manager
Supply & Demand
(National vs. International)
Final:2015/16(d)
Projection:2016/17(d)
Mt MtOpening stocks 63.7 89.1 78.5 72.9Production 1042.1 709.6 313.3 330.4Imports 125.0 300.0 130.9 135.7Processed 1 134.1 (b) 1010.0 (b) 316.3 328.7Exports 4.7 4.5 133.1 138.2Closing stocks 89.1 (a) 76.7 (a) 72.9 72.2(a) All stocks, regardless ownership thereof, in commercial structures(b) Excluding producer withdrawals, seed and end users(c) Source: SAGIS - 26 Sep '16 & NAMC: S&DEC - 30 Sep '16(d) Source: USDA - 26 Sep '16
International (USDA)
Final 2015/16 (c)
Projection:2016/17 (c)
'000t '000t
NAMC (S&D)SAGIS
Mar - Feb Sept - Aug
Production & Producer deliveries Crop Estimate vs. Producer Deliveries
Soybean2015/16 2014/15
Ton TonCEC Production 741 550 * 1 070 000 948 000SAGIS Deliveries 693 206 ** 1 042 129 919 723Difference 48 344 27 871 28 277* Final Forecast** SAGIS Progr. Mar '16 - Aug '16
2016/17 Ton
CEC Estimate, Yield, Ha & SAGIS deliveries Production & Producer deliveries
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
800 000
900 000
1 000 000
1 100 000
1 200 000
06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17Progr.
16/17Proj.
SOYBEANS: CEC Crop Est., Ha, Yield & SAGIS Deliveries
SAGIS (Prod Del) CEC (Crop Est) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield)
Ton Yield
Source:S&DEC
Imports & Exports Summarised info
2016/17 * 2015/16 2014/15
Imports 266 051 112.87 124 981 21.37 102 977Exports 3 985 -14.80 4 677 711.98 5762016/17 - Progr. Mar - Aug '16Source: SAGIS
SoybeansTon Ton Ton
% Yearon Year
% Yearon Year
Marketing years
Imports & Exports per marketing year
0
25000
50000
75000
100000
125000
150000
175000
200000
225000
250000
275000
300000
325000
06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17Progr.
16/17Proj.
SOYBEANS: Imports & Exports
Imports Exports
Ton
Source:S&DEC
Imports & Exports SARS Imports to RSA 2016/17 season (Progr.)
Imports Tariff Line 1201.90 Soybeans - whether or not broken - OtherCountry Ton FOB value R'000 FOB Rand/tonAustria 46.000 645.970 14 042.83China 15.045 130.820 8 695.25Ethiopia 240.480 1 627.850 6 769.17Myanmar 0.251 5.720 22 788.84Paraguay 264 854.022 1 474 083.970 5 565.65Suriname 18.000 237.540 13 196.67Taiwan, Prov of China 0.052 0.190 3 653.85Thailand 0.267 7.070 26 479.40United Kingdom 74.817 1 229.830 16 437.84Total 265 248.934 1 477 968.960 5 572.01
Source: SARSProgressive: Mar - Jul '16
Imports & Exports SARS Exports from RSA 2016/17 season (Progr.)
Exports Tariff Line 1201.90 Soybeans - whether or not broken - OtherCountry Ton FOB value R'000 FOB Rand/tonBotswana 4.386 72.40 16 507.07Lesotho 41.667 522.11 12 530.54Mauritius 11.510 249.17 21 648.13Mozambique 1 030.550 6 623.44 6 427.09Nigeria 0.022 1.60 72 727.27Swaziland 0.086 1.16 13 488.37Zimbabwe 1 070.070 8 714.28 8 143.65Total 2 158.291 16 184.16 7 498.60
Source: SARSProgressive: Mar - Jul '16
Processed & Consumption
Firms Tons Firms TonsHuman Consumption 10 11 125 10 12 408Animal Feed 28 52 011 26 63 901Oil and Oilcake 13 522 425 14 471 724
585 561 548 033* 2016/17: Mar '16 - Aug '16 Source: SAGIS** 2015/16: Mar '15 - Aug '15
SoybeansProcessed
2016/17 * 2015/16 **
Processed & Consumption
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
1000000
1100000
06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17Progr.
16/17Proj.
SOYBEANS: Processed Human Animal feed (full fat soya) Crush (oil/oilcake)
Ton
Source:S&DEC
Current season summary
741 550693 206
266 276
585 561
3 9850
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
800 000
900 000
1 000 000
1 100 000
CEC (Crop Estimate) Prod deliveries Imports Processed Exports
SOYBEANS: 2016/17 Season- Mar 2016 to Aug 2016 - S&DEC
709 550
300 000
1 010 000
4 500
Price Movements Soybeans: Local prices (SAFEX)
SAFEX: Latest prices vs previous prices: Soybeans2016/09/20 2016/08/19 2015/10/20
Price Price PriceR/Ton R/Ton R/Ton
November 2016 6415.00 0.02 6414.00 17.71 5450.00January 2017 6380.00 2.75 6209.00 18.32 5392.00Source: SAFEX
Future prices for: % Monthon Month
% Yearon Year
Price movements Soybeans: Indicative import parity prices
ArgentiniaSoybeansUp River
$/tFOB value $/t 406.00Freight rate 20.00Insurance (0.3% of FOB) 1.22Cost, Insurance and Freight (cif) $/t 427.22
Converted to R/t: R/tExhange R/$ 13.9122Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) R/t 5 943.57Financing cost 51.29Cost, Insurance, Freight and Financing R/t 5 994.86Discharge cost - Durban 170.37Import tariff 451.87Free on Rail (FOR) - Durban 6 617.10Railage: Durban - Randfontein 246.10DELIVERED: Durban - Randfontein 6 863.20Delivered: Durban - Randfontein (2015/10/22) 6 106.27Source: IGC - Grain Market Report
2016/09/22
Price movements Soybeans: International prices (CBOT)
CBOT: Latest Soybean prices vs previous prices2016/09/20 2016/08/19 2015/10/20
Price Price Price$/Ton $/Ton $/Ton
November 2016 363.62 -1.47 369.05 10.45 329.22January 2017 365.45 -1.03 369.27 10.39 331.06Source: CBOT
Contract: % Monthon Month
% Yearon Year
Soybean – Oil: SARS FOB prices Price Movements
2016/17Mar - Jul 2015/16 2014/15
Imports Quantity(Ton) 28 819 46 351 29 265
Total value of imports FOBR'000 320 390.96 424 362.07 275 630.44
Value per ton FOBR/Ton 11 117.52 9 155.35 9 418.41
2016/17Mar - Jul 2015/16 2014/15
Exports Quantity(Ton) 25 494 44 937 44 551
Total value of exports FOBR'000 363 229.29 567 787.03 567 016.17
Value per ton FOBR/Ton 14 247.37 12 635.32 12 727.41
Source: SARS
SOYBEANS CRUDE OIL1507.10
SOYBEANS CRUDE OIL1507.10
Soybean – Oilcake: SARS FOB prices Price Movements
2016/17Mar - Jul 2015/16 2014/15
Imports Quantity(Ton) 236 101 573 442 1 008 988
Total value of imports FOBR'000
1 240 757.15 2 340 392.46 5 397 627.27
Value per ton FOBR/Ton 5 255.20 4 081.30 5 349.55
2016/17Mar - Jul 2015/16 2014/15
Exports Quantity(Ton) 53 413 96 277 50 677
Total value of exports FOBR'000
402 377.74 651 695.23 325 066.68
Value per ton FOBR/Ton 7 533.29 6 768.95 6 414.46
Source: SARS
SOYBEAN OILCAKE2304.00
SOYBEAN OILCAKE2304.00
Soybean – Oil: SARS FOB prices Price Movements
2016/17Mar - Jul 2015/16 2014/15
Imports Quantity(Ton) 25 685 135 967 137 225
Total value of imports FOBR'000
312 118.44 1 318 805.05 1 387 881.51
Value per ton FOBR/Ton 12 151.90 9 699.42 10 113.89
2016/17Mar - Jul 2015/16 2014/15
Exports Quantity(Ton) 7 879 40 666 53 046
Total value of exports FOBR'000
102 199.91 518 589.36 649 588.03
Value per ton FOBR/Ton 12 971.81 12 752.47 12 245.73
Source: SARS
SOYBEANS OIL OTHER1507.90
SOYBEANS OIL OTHER1507.90
Price Movements Oilseeds Products: Year on year price changes
2016 2015 2014Price Price Price
R R RBrick Margarine 500g 22.63 13.49 19.94 10.78 18.00Peanut Butter 400g 25.35 9.36 23.18 1.31 22.88Sunflower Oil 750ml 22.82 23.42 18.49 8.83 16.99Source: SA Statistics
% Yearon Year
% Yearon Year
August
Price Movements Oilseeds Products: prices (Aug ’08 – Aug ’16)
2.50
5.00
7.50
10.00
12.50
15.00
17.50
20.00
22.50
25.00
27.50
Aug-
08
Dec-
08
Apr-
09
Aug-
09
Dec-
09
Apr-
10
Aug-
10
Dec-
10
Apr-
11
Aug-
11
Dec-
11
Apr-
12
Aug-
12
Dec-
12
Apr-
13
Aug-
13
Dec-
13
Apr-
14
Aug-
14
Dec-
14
Apr-
15
Aug-
15
Dec-
15
Apr-
16
Aug-
16
PRICES: OILSEEDS PRODUCTS
Sunflower oil 750ml
Margarine Brick 500g
Peanut butter 400g
Rand
Price Movements Oilseeds Products: Index (Jan ‘08 – Aug ‘16)
179.69
237.14
243.60
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
Jul-1
6
OILSEEDS PRODUCTS INDEX
Sunflower Oil 750 ml
Peanut Butter 400 gr
Margarine Brick 500 gr
%%
Soybean: Co-workers
Processors50
45.9%
Harbour silo owners
1211.0%
Traders32
29.4% Storers15
13.8%
Soybeans: Firms registered with SAGIS
Total firms: 109
Thank you
Note: This presentation is available on SAGIS’ website
under Presentations
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