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Potential Future Regional Modeling Center Cumulative Analysis. Ralph Morris ENVIRON International Corporation Novato, California rmorris@environcorp.com Workshop on Regional Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Studies Western Regional Air Partnership Denver, Colorado July 29, 2008. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
Potential Future Regional Modeling Center
Cumulative Analysis
Ralph Morris
ENVIRON International Corporation
Novato, California
rmorris@environcorp.com
Workshop on Regional Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Studies
Western Regional Air Partnership
Denver, Colorado
July 29, 2008
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
Purpose• To discuss potential activities to be included in a 2009
Scope of Work (SoW) for the next generation of the WRAP Regional Modeling Center (RMC)
• One potential future RMC task could be to provide regional air quality modeling support to the air quality components of NEPA and PSD modeling activities:– Ensures consistent approaches– Uses latest inventories, meteorology and models– Transparent assessments in the open– Serves as a repository of databases– Accounts for cumulative assessment across all potential new
projects in western U.S.• This work would be broken into a Core Effort that
provides regional modeling support across western States and Optional Efforts to provide project-specific support as requested
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
Background• Oil and Gas (O&G) development in the western states has grown
substantially in recent years
• Under NEPA, new O&G development projects must disclose potential environment impacts due to the Project alone and Project plus all other new developments in the region (Cumulative Assessment)
• New sources also need to estimate their potential AQ and AQRV impacts under PSD permitting process
• NEPA and PSD not limited to O&G development projects
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
Example Evolution of O&G EIS in SWWY• Jonah Infill Drilling Project EIS completed 2006
(Sublette County in Southwest Wyoming)– AQ and AQRV analysis using AERMOD & CALPUFF
• Draft Supplemental EIS for Pinedale Anticline development project completed in 2007– AERMOD and CALPUFF used
• In 2005, elevated winter ozone measurements are recorded in Sublette County (repeated in 2006 and 2008) – Pinedale Anticline SEIS performs ozone modeling
assessment– Final Pinedale Anticline SEIS released June 2008
showed exceedances of the 8-hour ozone NAAQS (0.075 ppm)
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
Running 8-Hour Ozone at Jonah Monitoring Site February 2005
8-Hour Ozone Measured at the Jonah Monitor in Southwest Wyoming: February, 2005
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WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
Example Evolution of O&G EIS in SWWY• BLM Hiawatha and Moxa Arch O&G development
projects in SWWY– Modeling Protocol proposes AERMOD and CALPUFF (NRG,
2006)– Need to address ozone due to high ozone measurements in
Feb/Mar 2005/2006• CAMx model applied for just ozone using 36/12/4 km grid• 4 km ozone impacts in SWWY
• Questions Regarding Adequacy of Emissions in SWWY– Current-year WRAP Phase II O&G emissions deficient in VOC
emissions (designed for regional haze modeling)– Future-year Reasonable Foreseeable Development (RFD)
scenarios from past EISs also deficient in VOCs• VOCs not reported in RFD inventories as ozone modeling wasn’t
performed
– Need to redo AERMOD, CALPUFF and CAMx ozone modeling w/ corrected inventories for Hiawatha and Moxa Arch O&G EISs
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
Oil and Gas Development in SWWY
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
Example Evolution of O&G EIS in SWWY
• 2007 BLM Continental Divide-Creston (CD-C) EIS in SWWY– Propose to use CMAQ or CAMx for all far-field AQ
and AQRV as well as for ozone (No CALPUFF)– Detailed emissions updates for 2005 and 2006 in
SWWY (O&G VOC emissions increase from 200 TPY from WRAP Phase II to >100,000 TPY)
– CMAQ/CAMx evaluation comparison and model selection
• Updated SWWY O&G emissions to be used in revised Hiawatha and Moxa Arch EIS modeling– Drop CALPUFF and use CAMx for ozone as well as
far-field AQ/AQRV
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
CD-C EIS 36/12/4 km Modeling Domains
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CAMx 36/12/4 Modeling Domain
36 km: 148 x 112 (-2736, -2088) to (2592, 1944)12 km: 89 x 68 (-1452, -84) to (-384, 732)04 km: 101 x 110 (-1084, 32) to (-680, 472)
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4 km12 km
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
CD-C 12/4 km Modeling Domain
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CAMx 12/4 Modeling Domain
12 km: 89 x 68 (-1452, -84) to (-384, 732)04 km: 101 x 110 (-1084, 32) to (-680, 472)
C lass I A reasIM PR O VEC ASTN ETN ADPO ther PM m onitorsO zone m onitors
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CAMx 12/4 Modeling Domain
12 km: 89 x 68 (-1452, -84) to (-384, 732)04 km: 101 x 110 (-1084, 32) to (-680, 472)
C lass I A reasIM PR O VEC ASTN ETN ADPO ther PM m onitorsO zone m onitors
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
Relationship with other future RMC Activities
• Much of emissions, meteorological and air quality regional modeling to support EIS and PSD needs is also applicable to information needed for 8-hour ozone and PM2.5 SIPs/TIPs and 2012 regional haze SIP checks.
• Regional 36/12 km modeling can be used to provide BCs to states for focused 12/4 km modeling to address 8-hour ozone and PM2.5 SIP attainment demonstration, including regional control strategies
• New 36/12 km base year and 2013 and 2018 year modeling can be used in the 2012 regional haze SIP check analyses
• Rural/remote areas and Class I areas can be analyzed down to 12/4 km resolution for impacts and regional control strategies across state, tribal, and federal lines
• Science updates of the future RMC can be implemented in EIS modeling
• Documentation and delivery of results through WRAP TSS
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
RMC Support to EIS/PSD Modeling• Core Support for EIS/PSD and Other Regional Air Quality
Management– Periodic Updates of Base-Year and Future-Year Emissions
Inventories – meets key need for emissions data management• Update Project-Specific information as it becomes available• Repository for emissions data and modeling files
– Base-Year 36/12 km MM5/WRF Meteorological Modeling• Western US 12 km Domain
– SMOKE Emissions and CMAQ/CAMx AQ Modeling on 36/12 km domain for Base- and Future-Years
• Model Performance Evaluation• Visibility and AQ Projections• BCs for more local-scale 12/4 km domains
– Documentation & delivery of results through WRAP TSS
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
WRAP 36/12 km Modeling Domains
• RMC would periodically update 36/12 km modeling and provide BCs to local-scale 12/4 modeling studies– EIS
– PSD
– NAAQS
– Other?
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
RMC Support to EIS/PSD Modeling
• Optional Support to EIS/PSD Studies– Project-Specific Modeling Protocol– 4 km MM5/WRF Meteorological Modeling
• MM5/WRF Data Processing to Project-Specific 12/4 km Domain
– SMOKE Emissions Modeling 12/4 km– CMAQ/CAMx 12/4 km Base- and Future-Year Modeling
• Zero-Out or Source-Apportionment modeling to address project-specific and cumulative new source impacts
• Address Ambient Standards, PSD I and II, Visibility, Deposition, ANC, etc.
– Documentation of Results in Technical Support Documents (TSDs) and/or
– Documentation & delivery of results through WRAP TSS
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
RMC Support to EIS/PSD Modeling• Additional Optional RMC Support to EIS/PSD
– Processing of MM5/12/4 km data for CALMET– Processing of surface, upper-air and precipitation data
for CALMET– Processing of future-year project-specific and cumulative
emissions for CALPUFF– CALMET meteorological modeling or use of new MM5
translator to map MM5 data directly to CALPUFF inputs– CALPUFF modeling of project-specific and cumulative
sources• Post-processing for Ambient Standards, PSD Increments,
visibility, deposition and ANC– Documentation in a TSD and/or– Documentation & delivery of results through WRAP TSS
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
Relationship with Regional AQ Planning Efforts
• EIS and PSD Modeling Efforts– Continuous Support Needed
• New 35 µg/m3 24-h PM2.5 NAAQS (revised 2006)– New Area Designations:November 2009– New SIPs: April 2012– Attainment Deadline: April 2015
• New 0.075 ppm 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS (revised March 2008)– New Area Designations:2010 (2007-2009 data)– New SIPs: 2013– Attainment Deadline: 2016 (Moderate) to 2030 (Extreme)
• Regional Haze 2012 SIP Check analyses
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
• Potential 8-hour ozone nonattainment areas under the new 2008 0.075 (pink) NAAQS [and 0.070 ppm (pink+blue) NAAQS]
8-Hour Ozone NAAQS
Current nonattainment areas under 1997 0.08 ppm 8-hour ozone NAAQS
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
2006 PM2.5 NAAQS
PM2.5 NAAQS
1997 PM2.5 NAAQS
WRAP Workshop July 29-30, 2008
Next Generation of the WRAP Regional Modeling Center (RMC)
• Questions
• Comments
• Discussion
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