Overview of Increment TrackingOverview of Increment Trackingand Cumulative Effectsand Cumulative Effects

Modeling IssuesModeling Issues

WESTAR Fall Technical Conference

Seattle

15-17 September 2003

Philip Allen, Oregon DEQ

What is included in Increment Tracking & Cumulative Effects analysis?

• PSD Class I Increment

• Air Quality Related Values (AQRVs)– Deposition

• S• N

– Visibility• Ammonium Sulfate [(NH4)2SO4]• Ammonium Nitrate [NH4NO3]• Particulate Matter (PM)

– Ozone [O3]

What are the resources to work with?What are the resources to work with?

• Meteorology– Observations (surface-upper air)– MM4/MM5 (80, 36, 12, 4 km)

• Emissions Inventories– State– Regional

• Data Management (met, EI, model results)– State– Regional

• The International Connection– shared domains, met, models, EI

• Models– CALPUFF– CMAQ– AERMOD

WESTAR Area of InterestWESTAR Area of Interest

Regional airsheds andRegional airsheds andoverlapping jurisdictions?overlapping jurisdictions?

• Pacific NW

• Pacific SW

• Colorado Plateau

• Rocky Mt West

• Northern Plains

• Colorado-New Mexico

• FLM jurisdictions

U.S.D.A. Forest Service RegionsU.S.D.A. Forest Service Regions

Region 1Region 6

Region 4

A brief example of a Class I Cumulative A brief example of a Class I Cumulative Effects Analysis in the Pacific NWEffects Analysis in the Pacific NW

• Bonneville Power Administration (BPA)

– NEPA study on proposed power plants– conducted in 2001– Proposed plants only

• No existing industrial point sources• No area and mobile sources

Federal Class I Areas: Oregon and Washington

Regional wind fields based on MM5 at 12 kmRegional wind fields based on MM5 at 12 km

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East-W est Lam bert C onform al C oordinate (km )

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O lym pic N PO lym pic N P

Pasayten W ild.

N orth C ascades N P

G lacier Peak W ild.

A lp ine Lakes W ild.

M t R ain ier N P

G oat R ocks W ild.

M t Adam s W ild.

C R G N SA

M t H ood W ild.

M t Jefferson W ild.

S traw berry M tn. W ild.

Eagle C ap W ild.

H ells C anyon W ild.

Spokane Indian R es.

Three S isters W ild.

D iam ond Peak W ild.

M t Baker W ild .

1 - F redonia Facility2 - R athdrum Pow er3 - F rederickson Pow er4 - C oyote Springs 25 - G oldendale Energy6 - H erm iston Pow er7 - C hehalis G eneration8 - Longview Energy9 - The C liffs10 - B ig H anaford11 - U m atilla G enerating12 - M int Farm13 - W allu la Pow er14 - S tarbuck Pow er15 - Satsop Phase I

BPA Study: Class I areas and example baseline sourcesBPA Study: Class I areas and example baseline sources

BPA Study: Max 24-hr visibility extinction (1Mm) BPA Study: Max 24-hr visibility extinction (1Mm) from baseline sourcesfrom baseline sources

Pacific NW and the Columbia BasinPacific NW and the Columbia Basin

Examples of regional studies

• Chuck Machovec: SW Colorado-Northern New Mexico

• Ken Rairigh: Wyoming