QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTY IN ECOSYSTEM STUDIES

QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTY IN ECOSYSTEM STUDIES

Ruth Yanai, Carrie Rose Levine, Craig See (SUNY-ESF)

John Campbell, Mark Green (USFS and PSU)

Amey Bailey, Stephanie Laseter (USFS)

20 collectors across SEV from 1989-1995Solutes: NO3, NH4, SO4, Cl, Na, K, Ca,

Mg, and PO4Collections monthly or after heavy rains

Gaps in the Precipitation Record at Sevilleta

Gaps in the Streamflow Record

Hubbard Brook Coweeta

Gaps in the Streamflow Record(days)

Hubbard Brook Coweeta

Uncertainty in change over time in sulfate in atmospheric deposition in NY as a function of

sampling intensity (21 stations = 100%)

Uncertainty in change over time in Adirondack lake nitrate

as a function of sampling intensity (50 lakes monthly = 100%)

Uncertainty in Forest Biomass in W6

as a function of the number of plots sampled

Uncertainty in Change over Timein Forest Biomass in W6

Variation over space and time in stream loads at Hubbard Brook, Coweeta, and Wakayama (Japan)