R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 If we do not design ways to live within the means of one planet,...

R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010

If we do not design ways to live within the means of one

planet, sustainability will remain elusive.

Source: http://www.footprintnetwork.org/

Energy and the EnvironmentPart II

CES August 2010

Prof. R. ShanthiniDept of Chemical & Process Engineering

Faculty of EngineeringUniversity of Peradeniya

• Describe the major energy technologies

• Assess the impact of the use of energy from the environmental (ecological) point of view

• Demonstrate a comprehensive understanding of

- energy sufficiency (conservation)

- energy efficiency

- energy security and

- sustainability issues

Learning Objectives

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000Year

Total emissionsGlobal CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels & the manufacture of cement (in 109 kg CO2)

Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/glo.html

Carbon dioxide emissions

Global Carbon CycleFossil-

fuel burning

Land use

0.6 – 2.6

Photosynthesis 100-120

Plant respiration 40 - 50

Decay of residues 50 - 60

Sea-surface gas

exchange100 - 115

Net ocean uptake

1.6 – 2.4

Numbers are billions of tons of carbon

Geological reservoir

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000Year

Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/

CO2 concentration in the atmosphere

(in ppmv)

Atmospheric Carbon dioxide Concentrations

385.3 ppmv in 2008

275 ppmv in pre-industrial time

Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) including Carbon dioxide

GHGs are gases in an atmosphere that absorb and emit

radiation within the thermal infrared range.

This process is the fundamental cause of the greenhouse effect.

The Greenhouse effectA T M O S P H E R E

The main GHGs in the Earth's atmosphere are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane,

nitrous oxide, and ozone.

Without GHGs, Earth's surface would be on average about 33°C colder than at present.

Rise in the concentration of four GHGs

Global Warming Potential (GWP) of different GHGs

The burning of fossil fuels, land use change and other industrial activities since the Industrial revolution have increased the GHGs in the atmosphere to such a level that the earth’s surface is heating up to temperatures that are very destructive to life on earth.

Global Warming

Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/hansen/hansen.html

Compare the above with the fact that the global temperature has not varied by more than 1 or 2oC during the past 100 centuries.

The global temperature has risen by 0.74 ± 0.18°C over the last century (from 1906 to 2005).

Source: Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Global warming has begun…..

Global Warming

Consequences………… Climate change

R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Source: http://earthtrends.wri.org/

• Persistent flooding is causing the submergence of the Carteret Islands.

• Saltwater intrusion is contaminating the islands freshwater supply and preventing the growth of crops.

• The islands were declared uninhabitable by the government in 2005 and expected to be completely submerged by 2015.

World’s first environmental refugees from Carteret Islands, Papua New Guinea.

Climate change

• death of coral reefs

• fewer cubs for polar bears

• spread of dengue and other diseases

• heavy rains & severe draughts

• fires, floods, storms, & hurricanes

• changed rainfall patterns

• warming and aridity

• loss of biodiversityand more……………..

Climate change

-Accelerated Climate Change-Mass extinctions-Ecosystems breakdowns-Large scale discontinuities

At the rate of 1.5 ppmv of CO2 increase per year, 400 ppmv CO2 will be reached in 2018, and it is probable that the global temperature would go up by 2oC

(compare it with the 0.01oC per decade estimate by WWF).

Some say, forget about the 2oC. The limit is not 400 ppmv CO2.

It is 550 ppmv CO2 (which is nearly twice the pre-industrial value).

Sustainable Limit Calculations

Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production:

1. Virgin material supply limit: To stabilize the atmospheric CO2 concentration below approximately 550 ppmv by the year 2100, global anthropogenic emissions must be limited to about 7 to 8 x 1012 kg (= 7 to 8 giga tonnes) of C per year (IPCC, 1996).

Source: Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002. Getting serious about sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9

2. Allocation of virgin material: Each of the average 7.5 billion people on the planet over the next 50 years is allocated an equal share of carbon emissions. This translates to roughly 1000 kg

(1 tonne) of C equivalents per person per year.

3. Regional “re-captureable” resource base:

Recycling of carbon in the form of permanent or semi-permanent sequestration may eventually possible through controversial techniques, not at the moment.

4. Current consumption rate vs. sustainable limiting rate: The U.S. on average produced 5500 kg (5.5 tonnes) of C equivalents per person (including emissions from land use change) in 2000, which is well beyond the global sustainable rate of 1000 kg (1 tonne) of C equivalents per person per year.

0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

HDI (defined on next page)2005

Sources: http://hdrstats.undp.org/buildtables/rc_report.cfm

HDI > 0.8

Sri Lanka

UNDP defined Human Development Index (HDI)

HDI = LI3

+ GDPI3

LI (Life Index) = Life Expectancy - 25

85 - 25

GDPI (GDP Index) =ln(GDP per capita) - ln(100)

ln(40000) - ln(100)

EI (Education Index) = 2 Adult Literacy

2 School Enrollment

3 100+

0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

HDI 2005

Sources: http://hdrstats.undp.org/buildtables/rc_report.cfm

Sustainable limit

HDI > 0.8

Unsustainable amount of per capita CO2 emissions

are required to reach super high HDI (> 0.9)

Sri Lanka

Discussion Point 3:

How to limit the CO2 emissions below the sustainable limit?

Take 10 mins.

R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2008

Fossil Fuel Type

Reserves–to-production (R/P) ratio gives the number of years the

remaining reserves (most optimistic estimates) would last if production were to continue at the 2007 level

Oil 41.6 years

Natural Gas 60.3 years

Coal 133 years

Peak Oil: Oil supply peak has been reached in many oil fields,

R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Source: http://www.hubbertpeak.com/mx/

Production from Mexico's largest oilfield, Cantarell, fell

from 1.99 million b/d

in Jan 2006 to

1.44 million b/d in Dec 2006.

Peak Oil: Oil supply peak has been reached in many oil fields,

R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Source: www.cartoonstock.com/directory/f/fossil_fuel.asp

Well #34 has run dry and is now pumping fossils

Dr. Gro Harlem BrundtlandFormer Prime Minister, NorwayFormer Chair/ World Commission onEnvironment and Development

Responsible for the broad political concept of Sustainable Development

“Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising

the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.“

- “Our Common Future”, 1987

Sustainable Energy: is energy which is replenishable within a human lifetime and causes no long-term damages to the environment.

Could we achieve a world that consumes sustainable energy without re-organizing the entire energy system of the present?

Discussion Point 4:

Take 10 mins.

Renewable Energy: are flows of energy that are regenerative or virtually inexhaustible

But, we replace our forests with cities, highways & golf courses.

Option 1: Increase the use of carbon sinks (such as forests where 70% of all photosynthesis occurs).

Stop destroying forests, and grow more trees.

R. Shanthini19 Jan 2010

The forest cover is already too small to help reducing global warming.

How long does it take to grow a tree like this?

Option 2: Change to non-CO2 emitting energy sources

What are they?Nuclear HydroRenewables (Geothermal, Solar,

Wave, Tidal, Wind, Biomass and Biogas) Muscle Power

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Fossil fuels

Hydroelectric Power

Nuclear Electric Power

Electric Power from Renewables

World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %)

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls

What are the problems with hydroelectric power? barriers in the natural flow of a river prevents fish from

migration, alters ecosystems, and threatens the livelihoods of local communities

the world's 52,000 largest dams release 104 million metric tons of methane (a greenhouse gas) annually

hydropower is not renewable, because reservoirs fill up with sediment and cost billions to dredge

failure of a dam will have catastrophic consequences

loss of land as well as flooding of areas such as natural habitats and existing settlements

The future generations must pay for destroying dams

Hydroelectric power

Is it a sustainable form of energy?

Hydroelectric power

The Elwha Dam, a 33 m high dam on the Olympic Peninsula in Washington state, is one of two huge dams built in the early 1900s and set to be removed in 2012.

Removal of dam will restore

the fish habitats, will create an

additional 715 acres of

terrestrial vegetation, and

improve elk habitats. estimated cost

$308 million ± 15%

Inorganic Solar Cells

2nd GenerationThin-film

Germanium Silicon

Mono-crystalline

Poly-crystalline

Ribbon

Silicon

AmorphousSilicon

NonocrystallineSilicon

3rd GenerationMaterials

Light absorbing dyes

Solar Energy – Photovoltaic Cells

Inorganic Solar Cells

2nd GenerationThin-film

Germanium Silicon

Mono-crystalline

Poly-crystalline

Ribbon

Silicon

AmorphousSilicon

NonocrystallineSilicon

3rd GenerationMaterials

Light absorbing dyes

Solar Energy – Photovoltaic Cells

Processing silica (SiO2) to produce silicon is a very high energy process, and it takes over two years for a

conventional solar cell to generate as much energy as was used to make the silicon it contains.

Silicon is produced by reacting carbon (charcoal) and silica at a temperature around 1700 deg C.

And, 1.5 tonnes of CO2 is emitted for each tonne of silicon (about 98% pure) produced.

Direct CO2 emissions from burning

(in grams CO2 equivalent / kWh)

Coal Gas Hydro Solar PV Wind Nuclear

Upper rangeLower range

IAEA2000

Direct CO2 emissions from burning

Indirect CO2 emissions from life cycle

4 2148

236 280

IAEA2000

Comparing Sri Lanka with USASri Lanka USA

Human Development Index (HDI) 2005 0.743 0.951

Ecological Footprint (EF, defined on next

page) 2005 per capita1 gha 9.4 gha

CO2 emissions per capita in 2004

0.16 tonnes of C

5.62 tonnes of C

Electricity consumption per capita in 2004

420 kW-hr

14,240 kW-hr

GDP per capita in 2006

3,896 PPP US $

43,968 PPP US$

• EF measures (in global hectares) how much land and water area a human population requires to produce the resource it consumes and to absorb its wastes, using prevailing technology.

• EF does not include an economic indicator.

Source: http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/frequently_asked_questions/#method1

A global hectare (gha) is a common unit that encompasses the

average productivity of all the biologically productive land and

sea area in the world in a given year. Biologically productive

areas include cropland, forest and fishing grounds, and do not

include deserts, glaciers and the open ocean.

Ecological Footprint (EF)

• Biocapacity is shorthand for biological capacity, which is the ability of an ecosystem to produce useful biological materials and to absorb wastes generated by humans.

Source: http://www.footprintnetwork.org

Sustainable global EF per capita

= Total Biocapacity per capita

= 13.4/6.8 ≈ 2 gha ( ≈ 5 acres)

Biocapacity

R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 Source: http://www.footprintnetwork.org

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

Cropland Footprint

Grazing Footprint

Forest Footprint

Fishing Ground Footprint

Carbon Footprint

Built-up Land

Biocapacity(gha per capita)

EF2005 (ghaper capita)

For Sri Lanka

0 2 4 6 8 10

Cropland Footprint

Grazing Footprint

Forest Footprint

Fishing Ground Footprint

Carbon Footprint

Built-up Land

Biocapacity(gha per capita)

EF2005 (ghaper capita)

For USA

EF is 1.3 in 2005. That is to say we need 1.3 planets to provide the resources we use and absorb our waste. This means, in 2005, it took the Earth one year and four months to regenerate what we use in a year.

EF will be 2 by the mid 2030 if current population and consumption trends continue according to moderate UN scenarios. It means by the mid 2030s we will need the equivalent of 2 Earths to support us.

More people

More pollution

Option 3: Reduce Population

If you are in USA, you will be lighting 18.5 bulbs, each with 200 W power

If you are in China, you will be lighting 3 bulbs, each with 200 W power

Electricity use in 2006

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

CO2 (metrictons per capita)

Population GDP percapita, PPP(const 2005

International $)

Low income

Lower middleincome

Upper middleincome

High income

in 2005

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

CO2 (metrictons per capita)

Population GDP percapita, PPP(const 2005

International $)

Low income

Lower middleincome

Upper middleincome

High income

in 2005

CO2 emissions per capita has stronger links with GDP per capita than with population.

“We cannot solve our problems with the same ways of thinking that produced them.”

Albert Einstein

End of Part II

(short Break)

R. Shanthini 15 Aug 2010 If we do not design ways to live within the means of one planet,...

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