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Steve Rayner, Jack Beale Lecture
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JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization
Steve RaynerJames Martin Institute for Science and Civilization
WICKED PROBLEMS:CLUMSYSOLUTIONS
JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization
JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization
WICKED PROBLEMS
Identified by Horst Rittel in late 1960s as characterizing socialproblems
Contrasted relatively easy challenges of public healthengineering in late 19th & early 20th centuries with late 20th
century urban planning
Also compared puzzle-solving in mathematics & natural sciencewith complexities of social policy
Noted challenges of increasing heterogeneity & value conflictsin modern society
JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization
CHARACTERISTICS OF WICKED PROBLEMS
Symptoms of deeper problems
Little room for trial & error learning
Lack a clear set of alternative solutions
Characterized by contradictory certitudes
Involve entrenched interests
Persistent & insoluble
Coping not solving
Feasibility not optimality
JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization
ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS ARELOOKING INCREASINGLY WICKED
Basic clean air & water legislation was based on publicexperience
London pea-soupers in 1952 killed 12,000 people
Cuyahoga river fires 1936-1969 were highly visible
Contemporary issues involve complex science not directlyapprehended by public & politicians
Not only look like social issues but incorporate them
Environmental justice
Sustainable development
JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization
WICKED ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMSINCLUDE
Climate change
Water resources management
Genetically modified agriculture
Urban planning
Waste disposal
Energy production & use
Marine ecosystem protection
Biodiversity loss
JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization
TAMING WICKED PROBLEMS
3 strategies along spectrum from reductionist to holistic (Roberts)
Hierarchical simplify issues & apply routines
Competitive use expertise to control resources
Egalitarian open the problem to more stakeholders
Each reflects a coherent organizational world view
JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization
Wicked - Conflicting
Worldviews
Complex - ClinicalConsultancy
Tame AppliedScience
Uncertainty/ignorance
DecisionStakes
High
High
Low
CONTESTED CHARACTERIZATION
JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization
SEARCH FOR TRANSCENDENT AUTHORITY
Sees conflicting values as a problem for policy
Demand for science-based or evidence-based policy
Attachment to idea that science determines policy
More research is always needed
Problems expand to incorporate more technical disciplines
But a surfeit of science is indeterminate (US NAPAP)
Alternative is to make a virtue of necessity
JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization
LIMITS TO TAMING STRATEGIES
None provides solutions. At best each domesticates theproblem or tames the growl (Churchman)
Domestication operates in at least two modes
Delay - establish a research programme (USGCRP)
Goal displacement integrated agency response (CBP)
JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization
Hierarchical
EgalitarianCompetitive
A SOLUTION SPACE
Solution space
JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization
CLIMATE CHANGE AS A WICKED PROBLEM
UN FCCC objective is to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gasconcentrations at a level that would prevent dangerousanthropogenic interference with the climate system
No agreement on meaning of dangerous or interference
Based on hierarchical model of ozone regime (simple problem)
Seeks agreement among 195 signatories
Potentially explosive growth in emissions from China & India
Kyoto protocol divisive - embraced by Europe but rejected byUSA & Australia
JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization
CLIMATE CHANGE: THE VIEW FROMEUROPE
70-90% of UK population sees climate as a significant problem
70-90% sees the government as primarily responsible for action
3 decades of the European project (climate as a handy externalthreat to all)
Margaret Thatcher as Green Goddess
Prevalence of precautionary principle (avoid disaster)
Faith in behavioural change
JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization
CLIMATE CHANGE: THE US VIEW
60% sees climate as a significant problem
Only 40% looks to the Federal government to lead response
3 decades of decentralization
George Bush Sr & the Whitehouse effect highlighted(misrepresented) disagreement
Prevalence of proportional principle (benefits and costs)
Faith in technological change
JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization
PROFLIGACY: AN EGALITARIAN STORY
Consumption is the underlying problem Environmental degradation is symptomatic of wider malaise Loss of harmony with nature & each other in pursuit of profit &
growth Nature is fragile & the economy is forgiving Heroes are outspoken climate scientists & activists Villains are greedy corporations Problem is urgent time is compressed Solution is behavioural, requiring precaution & frugality
JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization
THE CRIES OF THE CORALS (LEFALE)
Who cares about coral reefs? I often heard in the corridors of the UNbuildings. I care. I listen to the cries of millions of polyps that make upthe corals. Why? Because there is more at stake for us all than just thedeath of polyps and corals.
What is causing corals to die lies at the core of the way we humanslive.Dead corals are the victims of injusticesof greed, ofselfishness.It is an act of genocide.
The coral polyps own world mirrors the human experience the criesfor freedom from foreign debt, poverty, starvation, the cries to changelifestyles, not the climate, the cries to stop burning fossil fuels! Toignore the death of coral reefs is, I believe, to ignore the cries of manyof the worlds people.
JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization
PLANNING: A HIERARCHICAL STORY
Lack of planning & weak global governance is the underlyingproblem
Both the global commons & the global economy requiremonitoring and managing within limits
Heroes are those scientists, civil servants, NGOrepresentatives, & enlightened politicians building managementstructures for the global commons
Villains are complacent governments who wont sign up (US &Australia)
Long-term view Rome wasnt built in a day
Solution is diplomatic & regulatory
JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization
A NEW INSTITUTIONAL ORDER (UN HDR)
The challenge is to find the rules and institutions for strongergovernance to preserve the advantages of global competition, butalso to provide enough space for human, community andenvironmental resources.
Some of the key elements of an improved international architecture:
- A stronger and more coherent UN systemA global central bankA worldinvestment trustA world environment agency.
A Life Observatory should be established to systematically monitormajor ecosystems. Long-term planning should factor-in projectedchanges in climate and changes to specific ecosystems.
Intergovernmental processes tend to be difficult to organize and slow toexecute, but they are the only realistic way to address cross-borderpollution and ecosystem degradation.
JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization
PROBLEM WHAT PROBLEM? ACOMPETITIVE STORY
Problem is insufficient scepticism science is uncertain &technological progress rapid
The economy is fragile & nature is forgiving
Heroes are technological innovators & venture capitalists
Villains are panic-prone environmentalists & planners trying topick winners
Short term focus other issues are more pressing (Lomborg)
Solution, if there is a climate problem, will be to allow marketforces to work
JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization
HANDS OFF THE MARKET (BATE)
On the whole societys problems and challenges are best dealt with bypeople and companies interacting with each other freely and withoutinterference from the state. We do not know whether the world isdefinitively warming. If the world is warming, we do not know what iscausing the change man or nature. We do not know whether awarmer world would be a good or a bad thing.Until the science ofclimate change is better understood, no government action should beundertaken beyond elimination of subsidies and other distortions of themarket.
JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization
ALL THREE STORIES
Are elegant
Are internally consistent and logically argued
Are irreducible to one another
Give plausible but conflicting accounts
Define what sort of evidence is legitimate and credible
Are immune to falsification by appeals to scientific facts
Combine to create a wicked problem
JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization
THE GOOD NEWS
Individually each story is only a partial vision, but collectivelyeach fills in a perspective on the problem that the others cannotentertain none is entirely right, all are partially wrong
Policies based on only one or two of these visions will fail tograpple with its wickedness
Together, they offer a dynamic plural, argumentative system ofpolicy definition
Omitting any one voice also leads to loss of legitimacy andpublic trust
JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization
THE BAD NEWS
Climate regime is overwhelmingly based in the hierarchical story
Focuses overwhelmingly on emissions reductions over impacts
Assumes policies will be expensive - therefore requiringmonitoring & compliance
Regime represents 14 years of negotiation
Has minimal goals that will not make a difference
Is rejected by major players (USA & Australia)
Kyoto has been represented as the only game in town Whatwould be a viable alternative?
JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization
CLUMSY SOLUTIONS (SHAPIRO)
Looked at problem of selecting judges (1988)
Society & individuals are committed to conflicting values (rule-oflaw & democracy)
Recognized importance of essential contestation
Where you stand depends on where you sit: What you seedepends on where you stand
Need to avoid alienation of significant constituencies
Importance of maintaining a set of values over time
JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization
A CLUMSY CLIMATE STRATEGY
Increase initial focus on adaptation emissions reduction issomebody elses problem (Europe) or just too costly (US)
Deal with issues at lowest possible level of decision making nations, provinces, cities
Focus emissions reduction efforts on smallest number of players fewer than 10 really matter
Reverse global collapse of energy R&D funding again 10countries fund 95% of R&D
Focus on processes rather than targets & timetables
Consider benefits of international competition as well ascooperation and coercion
JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization
KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF CLUMSYSOLUTIONS
Observe law of minimum requisite variety
Clumsiness is not reducible to public participation
All voices heard & responded to
Are emergent & often informal
JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization
CHALLENGES FOR CLUMSY APPROACHES
Media & voters expect policy makers to fix problems
Policy makers demand scientific bottom lines for decisionmaking, even though they dont use them
Scientists are committed to improving knowledge, so hold outunrealistic expectations hopes of policymakers
The hammer problem
Success of rational choice for solving simple and complexproblems exacerbates expectations
Claims that there are no alternatives to rational choice tools
JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization
THE CLUMSY IMPERATIVE
Democracy is not a design problem: It is a challenge to theimagination (VISVANATHAN)
Embracing clumsiness moves us from techniques for selectingamong alternatives towards new skills for creating imaginativesolutions
JamesMartinInstitutefor science andcivilization
Marco Verweij & Michael Thompson (eds)
Palgrave, London, September 2006
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