Reflections on Arctic Climate Change Impacts and ... · Accounting Stakeholder Consultation-Working...

MBIS + 10:Reflections on Arctic Climate Change Impacts and

Adaptation Research 10 years after the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS)

Stewart J. Cohen

1) Adaptation & Impacts Research Division (AIRD), Environment Canada[stewart.cohen@ec.gc.ca]

2) Institute for Resources Environment & SustainabilityUniversity of British Columbia, Vancouver

[scohen@ires.ubc.ca; http://www.aerl.ubc.ca/aird]

Presentation at ArcticNet Annual Science Meeting, December 14, 2006.

World Conference on the Changing Atmosphere

(“Toronto Conference”),

June 1988

•International--Idea for IPCC•Canada—Green Plan

Canadian Geographic, 1997 article on MBIS

Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS): 1990-1997

sub-Arctic region facing permafrost thaw & ecosystem changes

• Governments – national, regional, indigenous people– Mandates, jurisdiction,

responsibilities for infrastructure maintenance

• Industry – energy, forestry, mining– Commercial development

• NGOs – advocacy (various)• Academia – research, training

Acknowledgements• financial and community support, 1990-97

– primary sponsors: Government of Canada’s Green Plan (1991-94), Environment Canada– co-sponsors: Indian & Northern Affairs Canada, Canadian Global Change Program of the

Royal Society of Canada, NWT Renewable Resources, Alberta Environmental Protection, Canadian Polar Commission, Aurora Research Institute (formerly Science Institute of NWT), Natural Resources Canada, Tourism Canada, Esso Resources Ltd. (1991-92)

– community support: Inuvialuit Game Council, Gwich’in Interim Land Use Planning Board, Dene Nation (including Dene Cultural Institute), Metis Association of NWT, and the following settlements; Aklavik, Fort Liard, Lutsel k’e (Snowdrift), and Pedzeh Ki (Wrigley), NWT

• Researchers from across Canada– Academic: Victoria, UBC, McMaster, Saskatchewan, Carleton, Toronto, Waterloo,

Calgary, Alberta– Government: Alberta, NWT, British Columbia, Canada—EC, DFO, NRCan– Other: BC Research Institute, BC Hydro

• the MBIS Final Report and plain language summary are available at the Northern Climate Exchange web site– http://yukon.taiga.net/knowledge/resources/mbis/index.html

MBIS is not MAGS

• MAGS = Mackenzie GEWEX Study– GEWEX = Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment– Focus on hydrology– MAGS contribution was in cold regions hydrologic processes; initiated in 1992,

and is still active• MBIS and MAGS collaborated in 1992-1994 in producing the first

Mackenzie Basin runoff scenario (Soulis et al., 1994)

SCENARIOS

ClimateEconomicPopulation

PHYSICAL

LandWater

BIOLOGICAL

Ecosystems-freshwater-terrestrial

SOCIO-ECONOMIC

AgricultureEnergyFisheriesForestryHuman SettlementsTourism

INTEGRATION

Models-Land Assessment-MultiobjectiveAssessment

-Multiregional Input-Output, Resource Accounting

Stakeholder Consultation-Working Committee-integration workshops-final workshop round tables

Themes-interjurisdictional water management-ecosystem sustainability-economic development-infrastructure maintenance-sustainability of native lifestyles

MBIS Framework

Linkages

strong

weak

Roles of Arctic people in MBIS• Working Committee—

Governance of Study– Advisers, reviewers of proposals--

budgets, assist with outreach• Research Participants• Subject of Interviews

– Individual project components– Part of integrated assessment

exercise (e.g. AHP)• Panellists in Round Tables• Users of Study Results• Champions (extension agents)

of Follow-up Activities in research and practice

MBIS Roundtable on Sustainability of Ecosystems;MBIS Final Workshop, May, 1996, Yellowknife

MBIS Governance Interagency Working Committee

• Working Committee membership consisted of;– Federal government– Alberta/NWT/YT– Dene, Metis, Gwich’in,

Inuvialuit, Indian Assoc. of Alberta

– Esso (1991-1993)– BCHydro

• Some criteria for Proposal review;– Suitable for spatial & temporal

extrapolation – “doable”– Directly applies to study area– Linkage with other study

components & critical sub-regions (e.g. Mackenzie Delta, Peace River, Mackenzie Valley)

– Benefits to Northern people– Involvement of Northern

people

MBIS Newsletter & Interim Report #1, 1993

Some MBIS researchers

1994 Mid-study workshop and 1995 visits to NWT communities

MBIS workshops, 1994, 1996importance of co-sponsors

MBIS Interim Report #2, 1994

MBIS Final Report (1997)

http://yukon.taiga.net/knowledge/resources/mbis/index.html

Evolution of Scenario Delivery for Impacts/Adaptation Research

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

2xCO22XCO2

1%/year

SRESA2, B2IS92a

Ad hoc delivery (raw model outputs)

IPCC DDCUK – LINK (1st scenario service)

RCMs

National scenario services

Mackenzie Basin runoff scenarios(Soulis et al., 1994)

Great Slave Lake outflow scenario(Kerr, 1997)

http://www.taiga.net/nce

The Mackenzie Basin:effects on peatlands

(Nicholson et al., 1997)

Landslide inventory(Aylsworth and Duk-Rodkin, 1997)

Permafrost thaw and landslides in the NWT (1992-1996 photos)

http://www.taiga.net/nce

The Mackenzie Basin:effects on forest pests

(Sieben et al., 1997)

Scenario changes to fire weather(Hartley and Marshall, 1997; Kadonaga, 1997)

Source: Cohen (ed.) 1997

Forest growth and fire risk scenarios

Community flood response(Newton, 1997)

Arctic Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation?It’s also about Northern peoples and the two

economies

Summer shelter, Tuktoyaktuk(1992 photo)

Inuvialuit Corporate CentreInuvik (1992 photo)

Impact Continued reliance on subsistence activities

Greater reliance on wage economy & economic development

Greater flooding - -

Muddy road conditions ? -

Insulation of buildings + +

Easier water delivery ? +

Less time waiting out cold conditions + +

Outdoor meat storage - -

Uncomfortably hot in summer - -

Increased summer insects - -

Shorter winter road season ? ?

Longer water shipping season ? +

Mode of transport ? ?

Infrastructure of camps - ?

Location of camps - ?

Changes in wildlife habitat - ?

Increased sediment loading - -

Thinner ice - -

Greater snowfall ? -

Variability in timing & consistency of break-up & freeze-up

- -

Longer ice free season ? +

Shoreline erosion & lowland flooding - -

Greater variability in decisions/perceptions - ?

Impacts of climatic change on future development scenarios for Aklavik (Aharonian, 1994)

MBIS – Information Exchange (Cohen, 1997)

MBIS Conclusions • Projected impacts will create new challenges and risks

– Permafrost thaw, lower minimum flows, increased forest fire and pest risk, longer growing season, potential shifts in wildlife patterns

– Aboriginal lifestyles could be at risk, but this will also be determined by future lifestyle choices

• Local residents want a larger role in developing responses to climate change, but need more support from higher levels of government

– Concern about local capacity; uncertainties related to state of land claims and impending split of NWT and Nunavut (1999)

• Successful integration of different forms of knowledge requires a partnership of stakeholders and scientists;

– Precedent established for collaborative research on climate change– Mixed views on success of MBIS in consulting with Northern communities (many

factors affected relationships); need local partners to help maintain regular flow of information (need other mechanisms besides newsletters)

– computer-based models can facilitate integration, but these models are limited in their abilities to describe how people relate to climate change

MBIS Recommendations • Need plain-language communication• Governments should include climate change in natural

resources management agreements and plans (e.g. Mackenzie Basin Transboundary Waters Agreement)

• Need continuous monitoring of ecosystems• Need a framework for incorporation of traditional

knowledge in future scientific work• Multi-disciplinary projects need a common platform for

data (e.g. GIS formats), and a Northern base to serve as a regional ‘home’ for the climate change issue

MBIS Final Report released

August 1997, Yellowknife

Yellowknife (Aug 18/97)Troubling numbersEffects of climate change suggest difficulty adaptingby James Hrynyshyn and Cheryl LeschasinNorthern News Services

Adapting to a changing climate won't be easy for many Northerners, according to a study of effects that scientists say are already under way in the Western Arctic.

The final report of the six-year Mackenzie Basin Impact Study concludes that animal and plant life, lakes and rivers, forests, industry and communities across the 1,8000,000 square-kilometre region face costly and, in some cases, dramatic changes in the coming years. "The study is akin to a damage report of sort -- or future damage report," said lead researcher Stewart Cohen at a press conference last week in Yellowknife.

MBIS Legacy (part 1?)

• 60 publications, including 8 theses, 15 refereed articles

• Northern Climate Exchange

• The Earth is Faster Now (ARCUS Publication)

• C-CIARN NORTH

The Northern Research Institute’sNorthern Climate

Exchange

A northern partnership of community, government, industry

and educationhttp://www.taiga.net/nce

MBIS Legacy (part 2?)

• UK Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology, 1998– UKCIP, initiated 1997 (sent observer to 1996

workshop)• IASC projects:

– Barents Sea Impact Study (BASIS), 1999– Bering Sea Impact Study (BESIS), 1999

• Climate change included in NRBS (1991-1996), WKSS (1997-2001)

IASC event (1999)• Included results of MBIS, BASIS, BESIS• led to proposal to Arctic Council to initiate the ACIA

MBIS Legacy (part 3?)

• ICC speech at COP2, 1996• Canadian parliamentary debate leading up

to COP3—Kyoto, 1997

THE ENVIRONMENT CLIMATE CHANGE

Hon. Christine Stewart (Minister of the Environment, Lib.): Mr. Speaker, I am very pleased that this evening parliamentarians of all parties have the opportunity to record their opinions in this House on the important subject of climate change.

Climate change, the most serious environmental issue this century, has been much talked about by members during the last few months here in the House of Commons during question period, in the standing committee on environment, in the press and no doubt in homes and communities across this country…

….The Mackenzie Basin impact study of the north reveals that the north has already warmed at three times the global rate. We now know that climate change will result in melting glaciers, ice caps and permafrost which will result in higher sea levels, more frequent forest fires and changes in migration patterns of wildlife.

The Mackenzie Basin impact study goes on to outline how in contrast to sea levels, lake and river water levels will actually drop. This will affect freshwater sources and fish and wildlife habitat. There will also be an impact on agriculture, forestry and fishery industries because of more frequent droughts and fires.

November 26 or 27 (?) 6:40 pm, 1997

MBIS Legacy (part 4?)

• Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), 2000-2004

– P.6: “…the ACIA builds on several regional and global climate change assessments…regional studies have examined…the Mackenzie Basin (Cohen, 1997a,b)…”

• ArcticNet, 2004-2009

Lessons from MBIS• Integrate assessment goals within stakeholder

context– Facilitated by stakeholder acceptance of various roles (steering

committee, survey participant, workshop panelist, host for study activity)– Potential for integration of TEK and western knowledge, though PAR

approach may still be problematic – Think about “the place” in its entirety

• Establish and maintain personal contact– Internet can support relationships but cannot start them

• Adjust to mixed agendas– Difficult for MBIS to compete with changing views on climate change

policy in industry and some jurisdictions (e.g. withdrawal of Esso in 1993)

– Use of climate change ‘stage’ to promote other causes (e.g. landclaims)

Future Research Directions• Impacts/adaptation research is evolving into an

interdisciplinary and inter-cultural approach to fully address the range of issues that may arise due to climate change & other major stresses

– ACIA, SEARCH, ARCTICNET, etc. signify growing interest in interdisciplinary and inter-cultural research & assessment on impacts/adaptation; how to sustain this effort?

– How to preserve institutional memory of information exchange between disciplines, and between researchers and practitioners?

• There are institutional & social components to vulnerability & adaptation, and this will continue to influence the framing of impacts/adaptation research questions.

– Implications for governance instruments (e.g. overlap agreements, quotas/allocations)

– Dialogue can/should be part of the research effort (e.g. “The Earth is Faster Now”, Inuit use of sea ice); can go beyond outreach and opinion surveys; this can include group-based model building, as well as model-facilitated dialogue

Out on a limb: Steps (?) towards regional integration/synthesis (1)

• Identify integrators for each sub-region– New people dedicated to this task; don’t wait until the “last minute”

• Use existing project teams and stakeholder partners as sources of information

– Partners include local resource managers, planners, from communities/governments, industry and other interests

– IRAs can assist in coordination and identification of local partners• Organize a dialogue process with sub-regional round

table discussions on cross-cutting themes– Research participant becomes a window for data/analysis results– Local partners provide knowledge of how local systems work (i.e.

knowledge of the “rules”) – Product is a mix of dialogue, results of individual projects, and some

cross-cutting comparisons where available— a shared narrative!!– Round table can take place on an annual basis, supplemented by

information gathering and informal discussions; avoid schedulingconflicts with other round tables and study events

Out on a limb: steps (?) towards regional integration/synthesis (2)

• Create common questions/structures for the sub-regions, BUT be flexible to include issues specific to each sub-region

• Some projects can contribute to > 1 sub-region– Need to identify representatives from each project, for each

dialogue for which it is relevant• Integrating themes can focus on practical

governance/policy concerns, such as:– Resource management structures/rules (e.g. caribou, parks,

water, etc.)– Regional sustainable development (wage-based economy,

traditional lifestyles)– Maintenance of infrastructure (transportation, utilities, buildings,

health/social services)

Future legacies….?• ArcticNet is possible because of

the foundation laid by MBIS, BASIS, BESIS and other early attempts to produce IRIS in the Arctic

• ArcticNet is much larger than previous research efforts; congratulations on building an impressive national network that is innovative, capacity building, and a positive influence on the future of the North

http://yukon.taiga.nethttp://www.aerl.ubc.ca/aird