Sensitivity Analysis for Modelling€¦ · Analysis Base: Building Type & Scenario • Building...

Sensitivity Analysis for Modelling Parameters Used for Advanced Evacuation Simulations – How

Important Are the Modelling Parameters When Conducting

Evacuation Modelling?

Olaf Albano Pérez SalgueiroFire Safety Engineer, JVVA Fire & Risk

Methodology / Approach

• Study objective (importance of input parameters)• Approach (parametric study)• Analysis (simulations)• Evaluation (results)• Conclusions

Analysis Base: Building Type & Scenario• Building type (Stadium)• Scenario (Simultaneous evacuation)1. Symmetrical2. High occupation density3. Merge of flows4. Wide and narrow corridors5. Stairs and ramps

Simulation – Software (Pathfinder)

Simulation – Input ParametersParameter Units Default valueVelocity m/s 1.19

Size cm 45.58

Acceleration time s 1.10

Boundary layer m 0.15

Comfort Distance m 0.08

Comfort Distance(From Queue density)

Pers/m2 4

Persist time s 1

Collision response time s 1.50

Stair riser cm 17.78

Max edge length m 2.50

Inverse Steering Behaviours

Simulation – Cost Parameters Path planning Locally quickest

Simulation – Design Scenario (Model)• Building is165m long and

112m wide• Grass is 103m long and

52m wide• 4 different terraced

standing areas

Simulation – Design Scenario (Population)Area Population (n. of people)

Terrace A 1023

Terrace B 2147

Terrace C 1023

Terrace D 2147

Total 6340

Analysis – Parametric StudyNmod Input value min Input value max

Velocity 12 0.3 1.9

Size 11 30.00 70.00

Acceleration time 11 0.6 2.0

Boundary layer 10 5.00 45.00

Comfort Distance 6 2 45

Comfort Distance(From Queue density)

6 3 6

Persist time 4 0.5 2.0

Collision response time 7 0.5 3.5

Stair riser 10 13.00 20.00

Max edge length 6 1.0 6.0

Analysis – Parametric Study (Results)

Walking Speed Shoulder Width

Analysis – Parametric Study (Results)

Persist time Collision response time

ConclusionsParameter High sensitivity Medium sensitivity Low sensitivityVelocity ✔Size ✔Acceleration time ✔Boundary layer ✔Comfort Distance ✔Comfort Distance(From Queue density)

✔

Persist time ✔Collision response time ✔Stair Riser ✔Max edge length ✔

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

11th CONFERENCE ON PERFORMANCE-BASED CODES AND FIRE SAFETY DESIGN METHODS, 23-25 MAY, WARSAW, POLAND

Olaf Albano Pérez SalgueiroFire Safety Engineer, JVVA Fire & Risk