Shaping a Bold & Abundant Future - TPNI...

Shaping a Bold & Abundant FutureShaping a Bold & Abundant Future

Penn State University –April 2014Live Tweeting? I’m @PeterDiamandis

Peter H. Diamandis, MD

Human development over 150,000+ years…Human development over 150,000+ years…

LOCAL + LINEARLOCAL + LINEAR

EXPONENTIAL + GLOBALEXPONENTIAL + GLOBAL

Human development over 150,000+ years…Human development over 150,000+ years…

Disruptive Stress/Opportunity

EXPONENTIALEXPONENTIALLINEARLINEAR

1996

MarketCap: $28B 

Employees: 140,000

2012

Bankrupt

Employees: 17,000

April 2012

MarketCap: $1B

Employees: 13

“The New Kodak Moment”“The New Kodak Moment”

In 10 years, it’s predicted that

40% of the Future 500 Companies

will no longer exist.

In 10 years, it’s predicted that

40% of the Future 500 Companies

will no longer exist.

* Babson Olin School of Business, Fast Company April 2011, page 121.

“The average lifespan of a company

listed in the S&P 500 has decreased from

67 years in the 1920’s to 15 years today.”

- Richard Foster, Yale University

“The average lifespan of a company

listed in the S&P 500 has decreased from

67 years in the 1920’s to 15 years today.”

- Richard Foster, Yale University

Singularity UniversityNASA – AUTODESK – GENENTECH – GOOGLE – CISCO– NOKIA

www.SingularityU.orgMountain View, California

GSP10^9+

EPExecutiveProgram

IPPFortune-200

C-SuiteExecutives

Crowd/Community Tools1. Incentive Competitions

2. (Big) Data Mining

3. Crowdsourcing

4. Crowd Funding

5. DIY Communities

6. Crowd Creativity

Exponential Technology1. Computation/Networks

2. Artificial Intelligence

3. Robotics

4. 3D Printing

5. Synthetic Biology

6. Digital Medicine

EXPONENTIALEXPONENTIALLINEARLINEARSU Curriculum

What does EXPONENTIALgrowth feel  like?

Take 30

paces…

Take 30

paces…LINEARLINEAR

0102

0304

0506

0708

0910

1112

13

30 meters

01 02 04 08 16 32 64 128 256

… 1,073,741,824 meters

26Xaround the Earth!

Take 30

steps…

Take 30

steps…EXPONENTIALEXPONENTIAL

Sensor Explosion

1976 – 1st Digital Camera (Kodak)0.01 MP / 3.75 lbs / $10,000

2014– Mobile Digital Camera>10 MP / 0.03 lbs / $10

1000x Resolution1000x Lighter1000x cheaper

1,000,000,000 x better

1,000x Resolution & 1,000 lighter & 1,000 cheaper

Steven Sasson

Sensor Explosion

Early ICBM NavigationInertial Measurement Unit1960’s – $ Millions – 50 lbsVelocity/Orientation/Accel.

Accelerometer: $1

Gyroscope: $3

Molecular MachinesFree & embedded

Sensor Explosion

1st commercial GPS Receiver in 1981Weight: 53 lbs; Cost: $119,900

Single Chip GPS Receiver 2010; <$5 each

Cal

cula

tions

/Sec

per

$10

00 c

ompu

ter

Moore’s Law – 5th Paradigm of Exponential Growth

The exponential growth of computing on a Logarithmic PlotCalc./second for a $1000 laptop vs. Time

Cal

cula

tions

per

Sec

ond

per $

1000

Year

1

20232050

2010

Faster,Cheaper,ComputingPower

Ubiquitous Networks

Ubiquitous Sensors

Artificial Intelligence

Robotics

3D Printing

Synthetic  Biology

Materials Sciences

“WATSON vanquishes human opponents”

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence

Infinite Computing•2,880 POWER7 processor cores;•16 Terabytes of RAM•200 million pages of content (Wikipedia)•Process 1 million books per second

Paradigm Change: Robotics

Robotics- Boston Dynamics / Google

Paradigm Change: Robotics

Robotics - Google’s Autonomous Car

Paradigm Change: Robotics

Robotics - Google’s Autonomous Car

Paradigm Change: Robotics

LIDAR64 lasers10 RPM

1.3 mil datapoints or 750 Mbytes/second

Light Detection And Ranging)

LIDAR: Light Detection & Ranging

Robotics - Google’s Autonomous Car

Paradigm Change: Robotics/Sensors

Perfect Knowledge, Anything – AnytimeLight Detection And Ranging)

LEO Constellations ~ .5m global resolution5 Known ConstellationsIncluding Skybox

Quad Copter~ 1 cm global resolutionPlummeting costsSolar Powered

Google Glass~ 1 mm global resolution

3D Printing

3D Printing – A $10 Trillion Industry

2010 (1st synthetic life) Fuels, Foods & vaccines

Genome Sequencing & Synthetic Biology

2001 (Sequenced First Human)

Critical Insights…1. The rate of innovation is exploding.2. Innovation is coming from everywhere.3. If you don’t disrupt yourself, then someone else will.4. Competition is no-longer the multinational overseas…5. If you’re dependent upon innovation from (only) inside

your company, you’ll be dead.

….So where do you source your innovation?

Crowdsourcing Genius

• $10 Million purse

• Privately funded teams

• 3 person crew

• 100 km altitude

• Two flights within 2 weeks

ANSARI X PRIZEHamid & Anousheh Ansari, Benefactor

ARCA Space Transport

Pablo DeLeonStarChaser Scaled Composites

DaVinci Project Canadian Arrow Rocketplane

Armadillo Aerospace

WINNING THE ANSARI X PRIZE

• 26 Teams• From 7 Nations• Spending > $100 million

October 4th, 2004Mojave Desert

Image from Video

OPENING A NEW ERA…

> 10 Billion Media Impressions Worth in Excess of $120 Million

VIDEO: Ansari X PRIZE (historical)

History Was Made

Board of  Trustees & BenefactorsBoard of  Trustees & Benefactors

LARRY PAGE,CEO, Google

ELON MUSKCEO, Tesla & SpaceX

RAY KURZWEILInventor & Futurist

Dr. ANOUSHEH ANSARIAstronaut & CEO

DR. CRAIG VENTER,Genetic Pioneer

RATAN TATAChairman of Tata Group

JIM GIANOPULOSChairman/CEO, FOX

JAMES CAMERONFilmmaker and explorer

Jim GianopulosJim Gianopulos

Jim CameronJim Cameron

WENDY SCHMIDTSchmidt Family Fndtn

Wendy SchmidtWendy Schmidt

DEAN KAMEN,       CEO, DEKA Research

Prize Groups

Energy & Environment

Life Sciences ExplorationSponsored

Learning & Global

Development

$30 million$30 millionPlus, $30 million inNASA contractsPlus, $30 million inNASA contracts

~20 Teams fromaround the world~20 Teams fromaround the world

Does it have to be a $10M purse?

$1.4 million

Target: 2x the 1,100 Gallon/Min

$1.4 million

• 350 pre-registered teams

• 10 Finalists – head to head

7 of 10 finalists > 2x Improvement

Top Team = 6x Improvement

$1.4 million

• 350 pre-registered teams• 10 Finalists – head to head• Target: 2x the 1,100 Gallon/Min

7 of 10 finalists > 2x Improvement

Top Team = 6x Improvement

$10MHEALTHCARE IN THE PALM OF YOUR HAND…FUNDED BY THE QUALCOMM FOUNDATION

Qualcomm Tricorder X PRIZE Team DistributionQualcomm Tricorder X PRIZE Team Distribution

>330 TOTAL TEAMS 33 NATIONS AS OF 2012

16 from Canada16 from Canada

115 from USA115 from USA

1 from Brazil1 from Brazil

1 from Argentina1 from Argentina

2 from Sweden2 from Sweden25 from UK25 from UK

3 from Ireland3 from Ireland

5 from Germany5 from Germany

1 from Switzerland1 from Switzerland

1 from Portugal1 from Portugal

2 from Denmark2 from Denmark2 from Russia2 from Russia

1 from Czech Rep.1 from Czech Rep.

1 from Austria1 from Austria

2 from Bulgaria2 from Bulgaria

2 from Italy2 from Italy

1 from Turkey1 from Turkey

2 from Georgia2 from Georgia

20 from India20 from India

1 from Yemen1 from Yemen

1 from Saudi Arabia1 from Saudi Arabia

1 from Kuwait1 from Kuwait

2 from China2 from China

4 from Singapore4 from Singapore

2 from Australia2 from Australia

Where is X PRIZE going next ?

Where is X PRIZE going next ?

Insights… Incentive Prizes• Any grand challenge can be attacked with an

Incentive Prize (XPRIZE).

• Pay only the winner; & drive a new industry.

• Teams spend 10 – 50x the prize purse.

• Tap into the world’s smartest innovators.

If you’d like a copy of my PPT slides...

Text your First Name & Emailto: (310) 299-8772

We are heading towards a world of Abundance…We are heading towards a world of Abundance…

Really?Really?

ABUNDANCE:The Future Is Better Than You ThinkABUNDANCE:The Future Is Better Than You Think#1 on Amazon; #2 on New York Times

AMYGDALAAMYGDALA ALL VISUAL INFORMATIONALL VISUAL INFORMATION

ALL AUDIO INFORMATIONALL AUDIO INFORMATION

The End of Poverty (June 2013)The End of Poverty (June 2013)

The Decline of ViolenceThe Decline of Violence

“In primitive societies 15% of people died violently; now 0.03% do…  

“Violence is 1/500th of what it used to be.”

“In primitive societies 15% of people died violently; now 0.03% do…  

“Violence is 1/500th of what it used to be.”

‐ Prof. Steven Pinker, Harvard

NAPOLEON III THE KING OF SIAMAGAGSILVER

AuAuGOLD

ALALALUMINUM

“Technology can 

take that which was 

scarce, and makes it 

Abundant..”

“Technology can 

take that which was 

scarce, and makes it 

Abundant..”

ABUNDANCE: ENERGY

Solar – Exponential ChangeSolar – Exponential Change

Source: GTM Research

SOLAR PANELS AVG. PRICE PER WATT

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

1980 1990 2000 2010

1975‐201297.2%

2012: 84¢

ANNUAL PV PRODUCTION MWATTS

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1995 2000 20102005

Bloomberg New Energy Finance reported that the price of solar panels fell by almost 50 percent in 2011.They are now just one‐quarter of what they were in 2008.

ABUNDANCE: WATER

ABUNDANCE: COMMUNICATIONS

ABUNDANCE: HEALTH & EDUCATION

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

FORCE: Rising BillionFORCE: Rising Billion

2000 2010 2020

GLOBAL POPULATION (BILLIONS)

6%

23%

66%

Global Population

Internet Users

3 BILLIONNEW MINDS

What will 3 Billion New Minds…What will 3 Billion New Minds…

createcreate

consumeconsume

discoverdiscover

desiredesire inventinvent…Tens of trillions of annual PP

…Greatest period of Innovation (ever)

If you’d like a copy of my PPT slides...

Text your First Name & Emailto: (310) 299-8772

www.singularityU.org – Singularity University

www.xprize.org – XPRIZE Foundation

Follow me: @PeterDiamandis

For a copy of these slides:Text your First Name & Email

to: (310) 299-8772