Sulfate Discussion WRAP Meeting – Tucson, AZ January 10/11, 2006

Sulfate DiscussionSulfate Discussion

WRAP Meeting – Tucson, AZWRAP Meeting – Tucson, AZJanuary 10/11, 2006January 10/11, 2006

Joe Adlhoch - Air Resource Specialists, Inc.Joe Adlhoch - Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

OverviewOverview

How much of baseline regional haze in How much of baseline regional haze in WRAP states is due to sulfate?WRAP states is due to sulfate?

What are the historical trends in sulfate What are the historical trends in sulfate concentrations?concentrations?

What are the contributions of natural and What are the contributions of natural and manmade emissions to sulfate?manmade emissions to sulfate?

How are emissions expected to change by How are emissions expected to change by 2018?2018?

How is visibility expected to change?How is visibility expected to change? How does this compare with the glidepath?How does this compare with the glidepath? Selected case studiesSelected case studies

Class I and Other IMPROVE

Monitoring Locations

N on-C lass I A rea

Class I A rea

AG TI1

BAD L1

BAN D 1

BLIS1

BO AP1

BR C A1

BR ID 1

BR LA1

C ABI1

C AN Y1C API1

C H IR 1

C LPE1

C O G O 1 C O R I1

C R LA1C R M O 1

D EVA1D O M E1

FLAT1

FO PE1G AM O 1

G IC L1

G LAC 1

G R BA1

G R C A2

G R SA1

G U M O 1

H EC A1

H ILL1

H O O V1

IKBA1

JAR B1

JO SH 1

KAIS1

KALM 1

LABE1

LAVO 1

LO ST1M ELA1

M EVE1

M O H O 1

M O N T1

M O R A1

M O ZI1

N O AB1

N O C A1

N O C H 1

O LYM 1

O R PI1

PASA1

PEFO 1

PIN N 1

PO R E1

Q U VA1

R AFA1

R ED W 1

R O M O 1

SAC R 1

SAG A1SAG O 1

SAG U 1

SAPE1

SAW E1

SAW T1

SEQ U 1

SIAN 1

SN PA1 SPO K1

STAR 1 SU LA1

SYC A1

TH BA1

TH R O 1TH SI1

TO N T1

TR IN 1

U LBE1

W EM I1

W H IT1

W H PA1

W H PE1

W H R I1

W IC A1

YELL2

YO SE1

ZIO N 1

D EN A1

TR C R 1TU XE1

H ALE1

H AVO 1

SIM E1

IMPROVE Monitoring IMPROVE Monitoring LocationsLocations

Baseline Extinction: 20% Baseline Extinction: 20% Worst DaysWorst Days

Baseline Extinction: 20% Best Baseline Extinction: 20% Best DaysDays

Baseline Sulfate: 20% Worst Baseline Sulfate: 20% Worst DaysDays

Historical Trends in 20% Worst Historical Trends in 20% Worst Days: Total and Sulfate Days: Total and Sulfate

ExtinctionExtinction 16 year trends (1989 – 2004) required 16 year trends (1989 – 2004) required

12 complete years of data12 complete years of data 8 year trends (1997 – 2004) required 6 8 year trends (1997 – 2004) required 6

complete years of datacomplete years of data Theil slopes (MmTheil slopes (Mm-1-1/yr) calculated for all /yr) calculated for all

sites with sufficient datasites with sufficient data P-values of 0.2 required to identify P-values of 0.2 required to identify

trend as significanttrend as significant Changes in monitoring or analytical Changes in monitoring or analytical

protocol over the years may affect protocol over the years may affect trendstrends

16-yr 16-yr TrendsTrends

8-yr Trends8-yr Trends

Historical Trends, 20% Worst Historical Trends, 20% Worst Days Mount Rainier NPDays Mount Rainier NP

16-yr decrease in Bext

8-yr decrease in SO4

Historical Trends, 20% Worst Historical Trends, 20% Worst Days Chiricahua NMDays Chiricahua NM

8-yr decrease in SO4

8-yr increase in Bext

Historical Trends, 20% Worst Historical Trends, 20% Worst Days Redwood NPDays Redwood NP

16-yr decrease in Bext

16-yr decrease in SO4

Historical Trends, 20% Worst Historical Trends, 20% Worst Days Rocky Mountain NPDays Rocky Mountain NP

8-yr increase in Bext

16-yr decrease in SO4

Anthropogenic and Natural Anthropogenic and Natural SO2 Emissions by State SO2 Emissions by State

(Plan02)(Plan02)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

Ariz

ona

(110

K)

Cal

iforn

ia(6

9K)

Col

orad

o(1

12K

)

Idah

o(3

4K)

Mon

tana

(47K

)

Nev

ada

(67K

)

New

Mex

ico

(84K

)

N. D

akot

a(1

63K

)

Ore

gon

(46K

)

S. D

akot

a(1

2K)

Uta

h(5

2K)

Was

hing

ton

(72K

)

Wyo

min

g(1

52K

)

ton

s/ye

ar

Anthropogenic

Point

Area

Off-Road Mobile

On-Road Mobile

Offshore

Oil & Gas

Fire

Natural

Fire

Total WRAP Region SO2 and Total WRAP Region SO2 and NOx Emissions (2002, 2018, NOx Emissions (2002, 2018,

and difference)and difference)Total WRAP Region SO2 Emissions

(2002, 2018, and difference)

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Ton

s/Y

ear

Nonroad(no CA, CMV)

57,773 2,920 -54,853

Onroad 30,688 5,988 -24,700

Area 103,577 124,136 20,559

Stationary 824,260 832,702 8,442

2002 2018 2018-2002

Total WRAP Region NOx Emissions (2002, 2018, and difference)

-2,000,000

-1,000,000

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

Ton

s/Y

ear

Nonroad(no CA, CMV)

639,921 423,400 -216,521

Onroad 1,607,593 523,067 -1,084,526

Area 404,749 617,116 212,368

Stationary 1,058,743 1,107,710 48,967

2002 2018 2018-2002

All SOAll SO22 Emissions Emissions

Gridded Model Results for Gridded Model Results for Annual Average Sulfate MassAnnual Average Sulfate Mass Annual average modeled mass (not Annual average modeled mass (not

20% worst days)20% worst days) 2002 and 20182002 and 2018 Difference (2018 – 2002)Difference (2018 – 2002) Ratio (2018/2002)Ratio (2018/2002)

Modeled 2002 Modeled 2002 SO4SO4

Modeled 2018 Modeled 2018 SO4SO4

Baseline and Projected 2018 Baseline and Projected 2018 Extinction: 20% Worst DaysExtinction: 20% Worst Days

2000 – 2004 Baseline Extinction

Projected 2018 Extinction

Baseline and Projected 2018 Baseline and Projected 2018 Sulfate Extinction: 20% Worst Sulfate Extinction: 20% Worst

DaysDays

2000 – 2004 Baseline Sulfate Extinction

Projected 2018 Sulfate Extinction

Baseline dv and Projected Baseline dv and Projected 2018 dv Reduction: 20% Worst 2018 dv Reduction: 20% Worst

DaysDays

2000 – 2004 Baseline Deciviews

Projected 2018 Deciview Reduction

Variation in Baseline Visibility(Standard Deviation/Mean)

20% W orst Days

0% - 4%

4% - 8%

8% - 12%

> 12%

N /A

Variation in Baseline Deciview Variation in Baseline Deciview ValuesValues

Percent of 2018 Target Reduction Percent of 2018 Target Reduction AchievedAchieved

Mount Rainier, WAMount Rainier, WA

2002 SO2 Emissions: Mount 2002 SO2 Emissions: Mount RainierRainier

2018 SO2 Reductions: Mount 2018 SO2 Reductions: Mount RainierRainier

Model Comparison: Mount Model Comparison: Mount Rainier, WARainier, WA

MORA1 Worst 20%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

obs02 plan02a

bEX

T (

1/M

m) bCM

bSOILbECbOCbNO3bSO4

Mount Rainier, WA 2002 IMPROVE Data

2002 Model Results

2018 Model Changes: Mount 2018 Model Changes: Mount Rainier, WARainier, WA

Bext Response (base18a - plan02a) at MORA1 on Worst 20% Days

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

14 17 110 119 131 176 188 194 203 206 224 227 233 236 242 257 269 281 287 290 296 302 326 Avg

Julian Day

Del

ta B

ext

(1/M

m) bCM

bSOIL

bEC

bOC

bNO3

bSO4

Trends: Mount Rainier, WATrends: Mount Rainier, WA

Uniform Rate of Reasonable Progress Glide PathMount Rainier NP - 20% Worst Days

17.62 16.97

15.3513.73

12.11

10.49

8.877.90

16.68

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2052 2056 2060 2064

Year

Ha

zin

ess

In

de

x (D

eci

vie

ws)

Glide Path Natural Condition (Worst Days) Observation Method 1 Prediction

Baseline Variability (dv)

Baseline Variability by Species

Glide Path: Mount Rainier, WAGlide Path: Mount Rainier, WA

Hells Canyon, OR/IDHells Canyon, OR/ID

2002 SO2 Emissions: Hells 2002 SO2 Emissions: Hells CanyonCanyon

2018 SO2 Reductions: Hells 2018 SO2 Reductions: Hells CanyonCanyon

Model Comparison: Hells Model Comparison: Hells Canyon, ORCanyon, OR

HECA1 Worst 20%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

obs02 plan02a

bEX

T (

1/M

m) bCM

bSOILbECbOCbNO3bSO4

Hells Canyon, OR/ID 2002 IMPROVE Data

2002 Model Results

2018 Model Changes: Hells 2018 Model Changes: Hells Canyon, ORCanyon, OR

Bext Response (base18a - plan02a) at HECA1 on Worst 20% Days

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

2 5 11 17 20 32 35 38 44 47 65 137 200 239 281 305 311 320 332 335 344 Avg

Julian Day

Del

ta B

ext

(1/M

m) bCM

bSOIL

bEC

bOC

bNO3

bSO4

Uniform Rate of Reasonable Progress Glide PathHells Canyon Wilderness - 20% Worst Days

17.5416.86

15.15

13.45

11.75

10.04

8.347.32

16.85

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2052 2056 2060 2064

Year

Ha

zin

ess

In

de

x (D

eci

vie

ws)

Glide Path Natural Condition (Worst Days) Observation Method 1 Prediction

Baseline Variability (dv)

Baseline Variability by Species

Glide Path: Hells Canyon, Glide Path: Hells Canyon, OR/IDOR/ID