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The Ageing PopulationDemographic Trends and Implications
David MetzPartner, Population Ageing Associates
Trade Association Forum @ DTI - 5th Sept 2001© Population Ageing Associates slide 2
The Ageing PopulationDemographic Trends
Longer LifeBaby BoomFalling FertilityEarlier RetirementCost of PensionsEmployment & Markets
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Expectancy of life at age 60 - years
men women
1971 15.3 19.8
2001 19.6 23.0
Trade Association Forum @ DTI - 5th Sept 2001© Population Ageing Associates slide 4
1998-BASED NATIONAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS, UNITED KINGDOM
- 600 - 400 - 200 0 200 400 600
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100+
A
ge
Population (thousands)
2001
Males Females
Baby Boom
Trade Association Forum @ DTI - 5th Sept 2001© Population Ageing Associates slide 5
FRIDAY MAY 11 2001
Birthrate slumps to the lowest on record BY ALEXANDRA FREAN, SOCIAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT
The birth rate in England and Wales has reached 1.66 children per woman, equal to the lowest level since records began, according to the latest government figures.
Falling Fertility (© The Times 2001)
Trade Association Forum @ DTI - 5th Sept 2001© Population Ageing Associates slide 6
Cost of Pensions (From GAD UK Population Projections Nov 1999)
No of Population of Working Age to support each person over Pension Age
1998 3.52036 2.42036 2.0*
* If state women’s retirement age stayed at 60
Trade Association Forum @ DTI - 5th Sept 2001© Population Ageing Associates slide 7
Who are these older people?
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When does “old age” begin?
Age 50+: changes in prospect for work, leisure, income, health.
By 2020, half the adults in the UK will be over 50.
Trade Association Forum @ DTI - 5th Sept 2001© Population Ageing Associates slide 12
Variability increases with age
More variation in later life than in youth. Avoid stereotyping.
Chronological age not a good indicator of capability.
Challenge: how to think about older people - as producers and as consumers.
Trade Association Forum @ DTI - 5th Sept 2001© Population Ageing Associates slide 13
Values & attitudes of older people
More respect for authority, belief in having rules, focus on community.
Less risk-taking, excitement, immediate gratification.
Value natural products, aesthetics, pleasure.
Affinity for technology.
Trade Association Forum @ DTI - 5th Sept 2001© Population Ageing Associates slide 14
Who are these older people?
Our future selvesVariedDemandingDiscriminatingOpen to possibilities
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Income and wealth
Pensioners’ incomes average 80% of whole population’s
over 55s control over 60% of nation’s wealth and 40% of consumer spending worth £240 billion a year
Trade Association Forum @ DTI - 5th Sept 2001© Population Ageing Associates slide 16
Addressing the market
Everyday products - Inclusive DesignThe design of all products and services to be used by maximum number of people with minimum amount of modification
Specialised productsThe design of specific products and services to compensate for loss of function (physical, sensory, cognitive; singly or in combination)
Trade Association Forum @ DTI - 5th Sept 2001© Population Ageing Associates slide 17
Automobiles
Ford market initiative in 1990’s
Designers exposed to effects of ageing
Ergonomic checklist for all Ford designs
No mention in Ford product publicity
Trade Association Forum @ DTI - 5th Sept 2001© Population Ageing Associates slide 18
Retail
Pensioner trolleys introduced to suit pensioners’ needs
Liked by other usersAll customers needs
are considered eg store layout
Customer-centred business
Trade Association Forum @ DTI - 5th Sept 2001© Population Ageing Associates slide 19
Software
Accessibility Technology Group started in 1992
Company accessibility policy established in 1995
Acts across all major Microsoft products; Windows, Office, internet
Products also enable connection of specialist devices eg keyboards, braille readers etc
•www.microsoft.com/enable
Trade Association Forum @ DTI - 5th Sept 2001© Population Ageing Associates slide 20
Inclusive Design
“Design for the young, and you’ll exclude the old;
Design for the old, and you’ll include the young”
Gero von RandowSiemens
Trade Association Forum @ DTI - 5th Sept 2001© Population Ageing Associates slide 21
Consumer market segments
healthyindulgers
ailingoutgoers
healthyhermits
frailrecluses
Trade Association Forum @ DTI - 5th Sept 2001© Population Ageing Associates slide 22
Employment
Population aged 20-39 and 45-64, United Kingdom
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
(m
illi
on
s)
45-64
20-39
Trade Association Forum @ DTI - 5th Sept 2001© Population Ageing Associates slide 23
Employers faced by -
Fewer young people; more older people,
skills shortages and “full employment”,
unsustainable costs: pension funds and taxation for welfare.
Trade Association Forum @ DTI - 5th Sept 2001© Population Ageing Associates slide 24
Finding older employees by -
Promote an “age friendly” image,target the relevant segment of the older
population,offer flexible working,offer prospects, if possible,use a wide range of organisations to
access potential employees.
Trade Association Forum @ DTI - 5th Sept 2001© Population Ageing Associates slide 25
Rewards of older employees
Commitment and loyalty - low staff turnover,
interpersonal skills: team workcustomer skills: increased salescustomer focus: the age profile of
customers
Trade Association Forum @ DTI - 5th Sept 2001© Population Ageing Associates slide 26
Retention of employees
Offer learning opportunities,offer options for retraining: multi-skilling,support career changes,planning ahead; financial planning for
employees.
Trade Association Forum @ DTI - 5th Sept 2001© Population Ageing Associates slide 27
Future changes in employment law
Abolition of fixed retirement ages,employee rights after age 60/65,age not a justifiable criteria for recruitment,
promotion or training,changes in early retirement rules and
flexible working.
Trade Association Forum @ DTI - 5th Sept 2001© Population Ageing Associates slide 28
Foresight Ageing Population Panel
"The Age Shift" - 2000
NEW APPROACHES NEEDEDReversing Early RetirementMore Older WorkersLifelong Learning / Reshaping EducationNew Financial ServicesDesign for InclusivityLooking after Fourth Agers
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