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Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Transforming the Energy Systems of the European Union – between policy and research
• Framework conditions for an EU energy policy: The diversity of
national energy systems - data & figures
• EU Policies and Strategies
• The case of Germany: Between nuclear phase out and climate
protection forerunner
• EU energy technology strategies
• Final conclusion: EU energy policy in Transition
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
The diversity of national energy systems - data & figures
2
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
EU27 and Australia in comparison
Population Area
km
Population/
km
GDP GDP/ capita
Australia about 21 Mio. 7. 686. 850 2,8 800,5 Mrd. US $ 38.100 US $
EU 27 about 500 Mio. 4. 300. 000 11,6 18.146,5 Mrd. US $
36.504 US $
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Gross Energy Consumption and Energy Mix in the EU 27 in million tons of oil equivalent, 2006
Absolute Gross Energy Consumption by Fuel; EU27
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
EU27
mil
lio
n t
on
s o
il e
qu
iva
len
t
Solid Fuels Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewables
3
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Gross Energy Consumption & Energy Mix in selected EU States
in million tons of oil equivalent, 2006
Gross Energy Consumption by Fuel
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
mil
lio
n t
on
s o
il e
qu
iva
len
t
Solid Fuels
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewables
Other
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Source: EU Commission (2009):
EU Energy in Figures 2009
4
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Final Energy Consumption in the EU 27 in million tons of oil equivalent, 2006
Absolute Final Energy Consumption by Sector; EU27
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
EU27
mil
lio
n t
on
s o
il e
qu
iva
len
t
Industry Transport Housholds Services
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Final Energy Consumption in selected EU member states
in million tons of oil equivalent, 2006
Final Energy Consumption by Sector
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
mil
lio
n t
on
s o
il e
qu
iva
len
t
Industry Transport Housholds Services
5
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Gross Electricity Generation in selected EU States
Source: EU
Commission (2009): EU
Energy and Transport
in Figures
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Gross Electricity Generation; Fuel Mix of EU27 and selected Member States
Source: EU
Commission
(2009): EU
Energy and
Transport in
Figures
6
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Import Depedency of selected EU Countries: Solid Fuels
Source: EU
Commission
(2009): EU
Energy and
Transport in
Figures
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Import Depedency of selected EU States: Oil
Source: EU
Commission
(2009): EU
Energy and
Transport in
Figures
7
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Import Depedency of selected EU Countries: Natural Gas
Source: EU
Commission
(2009): EU
Energy and
Transport in
Figures
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Oil and Gas Imports of EU27
Source: EU Commission (2009): EU Energy and Transport in Figures
8
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Diversification of EU27 Oil Imports
Source: EU Commission (2009): EU
Energy and Transport in Figures
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Diversification of EU27 Gas Imports
Source: EU Commission (2009): EU
Energy and Transport in Figures
9
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Electricity prices household consumers 2008 (1. quarter, EUR/100kWh)
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Source: Eurostat
Electricity prices industrial consumers 2008 (1. quarter, EUR/100kWh)
10
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Summary
The energy systems of the EU-countries have historically developed as
largely closed national systems (exception EURATOM) based on different resources & policies.
These structures still influence the energy policies of EU-countries and
make the process to an integrated European energy policy burdensome.
But the new challenges the EU faces (climate change, import-dependency,
competiveness) are driving forces for a higher integration at the EU-level, putting pressure on old-fashioned national energy policies &
systems.
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
EU Policies & Strategies
11
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Competiveness: - Open internal markets
- Interconnections (Trans-European Networks)
- European electricity & gas network
- R & D*
Security of Supply: - Diversification
- EU oil & gas stocks & management
- International dialogue (consumer & producer)
- R & D*
Environmental protection: - GHG reduction policies & EU- ETS
- Others (NOx, particles …)
* Focus clean coal, CCS, renewables, efficiency, nuclear.
EU Energy Policy Challenges
how to balance ?
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Coping with challenges: development of EU-Energy & Climate Policies*
Source: Eurostat, Panorama of Energy, 2009
*Not included: Adaptation to Climate Change, Commission Whitebook 2009.
12
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Limited EU-Competences in Energy Policy
- Absence of a specific article on Energy competence sharing within EU
- No clear allocation of competences between States and Community
Institutions, but intergovernmental character dominates
- But: strong influence of Commission through market regulation,
increasingly through emission trading, partly through R & D
- But: Lisbon Treaty defines Energy as a shared competence, has a new
Title on Energy (energy mix & taxation still national competence)
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Market Opening 1
Liberalization of the EU gas and electricity markets proceeded in three steps.
First Directives were issued in 1996 for electricity (96/92/EC) and in
1998 (98/30/EC) for gas. Free choose of suppliers (for larger costumers) Open access to grids and gas networks. Soft provisions (e.g. no mandate for independent regulatory
authorities).
Market Opening 2
Inadequate results led to second directives on gas (2003/55/EC)
and electricity (2003/54/EC) and to a regulation on cross-border exchange of electricity (EC 1228/2003.
Full market opening by 1 July 2007.
Mandatory unbundling of supply and transmission companies either by legal separation or by full ownership unbundling.
Mandatory establishment of independent regulators.
Market based allocation of cross-border transmission capacity.
13
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Market Opening 3
At present, proposals on a Third Liberalization Package are discussed
between the Commission, the Council and the Parliament. These proposals include:
Mandatory full ownership unbundling of transmission system operators.
Establishment of an Agency for Co-Operation of Energy Regulators (ACER) with powers in regulating cross-border-trade.
Establishment of a European Network of Transmission System Operators (ENSO) to develop common commercial and technical codes.
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Renewables 1
Directive 2001/77/EC On the Promotion of Electricity Produced from Renewable Energy Sources.
EU level - 21% of all electricity should be generated from renewable sources by 2010.
national level - each member state should increase the share of renewable in electricity generation by 8 percentage points to 2010.
Directive 2003/30/EC on the promotion of biofuels.
In each member state, biofuels should account for 5,75% of energy consumption in transport by 2010.
Failure to meet the indicative targets of 2005 led the Commission to
propose a new directive that would cover renewable share in power generation and transport.
Sustainable produced biofuels should cover 10% of energy in transport by 2020.
Differentiated targets for the share of renewables in electricity generation by 2020.
Renewables 2
14
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
National distribution of EU-renewable targets 2020
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Development of the Share of Renewables in Final Energy Consumption
Source: EU
Commission (2009):
EU Energy and
Transport in Figures
15
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Biofuels & other renewables for transport
Directive on the Promotion of the use of biofuels and other renewable
fuels for transport (2003) - biofuels directive
Renewable energy sources should cover 5, 75 % (2010) and 10%
(2020) of transport fuel.*
Differentiated targets for the share of renewables in electricity
generation by 2020.
*On January 14 2008 the EU Environment Commissioner Dimas announced
the EU is rethinking its biofuel program due to environmental and social
concerns (impact of biofuels on rising food prices, rainforest destruction,
notably from palm oil production). New strategy: keep the target, but the
biofuels have to be produced according new sustainability criteria (use must
save 35% of GHG emissions of fossil fuels, from 2017 onward 50%; more
second-generation biofuels; renewable biofuel-electricity consumed by cars
will be counted a 2.5 times its input; hydrogen is counted as renewable).
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Energy Efficiency
At present, a proposal by the Commission on an Energy Efficiency Action
Plan is under discussion. The plan includes measures in six priority areas, leading to an additional reduction of energy consumption of 20%:
1) Introduction of minimum performance standards and transparent labeling according to these standards.*
2) Setting minimum standards for energy efficiency of new and renovated buildings.
3) Setting minimum requirements for transformation facilities.
4) Increasing fuel efficiency in transport to reduce CO2-emissions to 120 g/km.
5) Increasing public awareness through education courses e.g. for professionals and students.
6) International cooperation.
*Eco-design Directive (2009 in force): at the design stage manufacturers of energy-using products will be obliged to reduce the energy consumption and other negative environmental impacts occurring throughout the product life cycle (minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) or other mechanisms).
16
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
In the focus of EU policy: EU-GHG Policies and the Emissions-Trading-System
EU 20-20-20 target for 2020
(December 2008 “Climate action and renewable energy package”):
• Cutting GHG emissions of EU 27 by at least 20% of 1990 level (30% if other
developed countries commit to comparable cuts).
• Increasing renewables to 20% of total energy production.
• Cutting energy consumption by 20% of projected 2020 levels by improving
energy efficiency
Main instrument > EU ETS: - phase I (test-phase, NAPs, overallocation & free
allocation emission rights), - phase II 2009-12 (NAPs with Commission control
and reduced emission rights), - phase III after 2013 (EU allocation system
without NAPs, differentiated auctioning, new sectors).
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
What has to achieved: EU-15 Kyoto targets for 2012 and their distribution (“EU-bubble”)
17
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Source: EU Commission (2009): EU Energy and
Transport in Figures
What has been achieved:
Development of EU-15 CO2-Emissions
Source: EU
Commission (2009):
EU Energy and
Transport in Figures
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
*
What has to be done: EU-GHG Emissions and Kyoto targets
*Only three of EU-15-countries on track up to now
18
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
What will be done: EU legislation to implement the 20 - 20 -20 target
- A Directive revising the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), which covers
some 40% of EU greenhouse gas emissions;
- An "effort-sharing" Decision setting binding national targets for emissions from
sectors not covered by the EU ETS;
- A Directive setting binding national targets for increasing the share of renewable
energy sources in the energy mix;
- A Directive creating a legal framework for the safe and environmentally sound use
of carbon capture and storage technologies;
- A Regulation requiring a reduction in CO2 emissions from new cars to an average of
120g per km, to be phased in between 2012 and 2015, and further to 95g per km
in 2020. (contributing more than one-third of the emission reductions required in
the non-ETS sectors);
- A revision of the Fuel Quality Directive requiring fuel suppliers to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions from the fuel production chain by 6% by 2020.
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
The Main instrument: a modified EU-ETS for phase III
> Capped EU emissions: 21% below 2005 levels by 2020 to 1,720 Mt/y, 1.74 % linear reduction of emission rights per year.
• Enlarging the ETS on new sectors (petrochemical, aluminium, aviation)
• GHGs avoided through CCS are to be credited as 'not emitted‘. > up to 300 million allowances available to subsidise (among others) the construction of 12 CCS demonstration plants.
• EU ETS auctioning:
- power sector full auctioning from 2013 onwards (exception for eastern Europe countries full auctioning in 2020 ) - industry 20% auctioning in 2013, 70% in 2020, 100% in 2027; but energy & export intensive industries (most of them) all allowances for free if “significant risk of carbon leakage" (sectors to be determined by Commission 12/2009).
• EU solidarity fund: 10% of ETS emission quotas reserved for a "solidarity fund" to help poorer countries from Central and Eastern Europe.
• Flexibility and third countries: Limited use of CDM & JI. 3% of member states' total emissions in 2005 or more, depending on international agreement.
> Sectors not covered by the ETS (transport, buildings, agriculture, waste): 10% below 2005 by 2020. > different national targets according to countries' GDP.
19
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
EU GHG reduction targets for 2020 and its distribution
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
EU-countries: GHG reduction in non ETS sectors
20
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Conclusion: Diversity of EU Energy Policies
National states are the predominant actors in European energy policy, as guaranteed by the ECT (e.g. national veto in Art. 175 II).
This leads to an interconnected but diversified European energy system, where interests, problems and assets are allocated on the national rather than the EU level.
The EU increasingly influences these national energy systems indirectly, mostly through the common market policy, the Emission Trading Scheme and the Trans-European-Network program.
While the Lisbon Treaty gives the EU more weight in energy policy, the position of the member states will remain strong. Therefore EU energy policy will remain a fragile balance of national and European interests, problems and instruments.
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Conclusion: EU Policies and Strategies
The EU is influencing national energy policy by setting the agenda and using
her competencies in “neighboring” policy fields.
However, most policy instruments of the EU failed to deliver the desired effects:
The prices for gas and electricity raised despite open market policies.
The EU 15 Kyoto target (-8%) are difficult to meet. Energy dependence is increasing, a common foreign EU energy strategy is still quested:
Import dependency of the EU is high and projected to rise even further
Since 2004, oil and gas imports to the EU have been disrupted several times, harming especially the new member states in Eastern Europe.
Despite several attempts to address the topic, EU crisis reaction mechanisms remain weak and no common foreign policy approach exists. This is evident in the cases of the Nabucco and the Nord Stream Pipeline
21
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
The case of Germany
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Germany: climate & energy targets
• Government Climate Protection Program, IKEP (2007)
Reduction GHG emissions by 40 % until 2020 (reference year 1990).
Increase share of renewables for electricity generation up to 25-30% until 2020.
Increase share of electricity from Combined Heat and Power up to 25% until 2020.
Increase share of biofuels up to 17% of energy related fuels.
• Government Declaration (2007)
Reduction electricity consumption by 11% through increase in energy efficiency in 2020.
Increase renewables in the heat sector up to 14% in 2020.
• Government Coalition Agreement (2005) Increase energy productivity (GDP/primary energy) by 100% between 1990 – 2020.
22
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Measures to implement IKEP 2007 (I)
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Measures to implement IKEP (II)
23
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Kraus, DENA 2008
Challenge: Increase productivity
target: average increase/
year 2005-20
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Challenge: nuclear reactor phase-out in Germany
based on the 2001 agreement companies/government & stipulated in federal atomic law (2002)
24
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Challenge: Decreasing acceptance for new efficient Coal Power Plants
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Challenge: CCS projects in peril ?
CCS power plant (planning)
Potential pipelines
Strorage areas
Ketzin-project
Local resistance, contributed to the failure to implement the EU CCS directive in Germany;
has to be dealt with in next legislative period.
Map-source: Eurosolar
Blue areas: electoral
districts
25
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Desertec: the new Shangri-La?
- aims to cover 15% of Europe’s electricity demand by 2050.
- electricity is generated by using Concentrated Solar-thermal Power Plants
in different locations in North Africa & Middle East.
- transmission via High-Voltage Direct Transmission Lines.
- investments will add up to app. 400 bn. .
Desertec Memorandum of Understanding signed on June 13 2009.
Members of the Consortium with focus on German companies: ABB,
Deutsche Bank, E.ON, Münchener Rück, RWE, SCHOTT Solar, Siemens …
> Established a Desertec Industrial Initiative planning entity.
> Aims to extend it‘s scope by including interested companies from
other states.
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Possible Infrastructure for Desertec within a visionary European Electricity Supply System
Source: Desertec Foundation/ www.desertec.com
26
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Possible Infrastructure for Desertec within a visionary European Electricity Supply System
Source: Desertec Foundation/
www.desertec.com
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Desertec - Critique
- Necessary Investments for installation, maintenance and transmission
may lead to comparatively high electricity prices.
- Desertec may impede domestic policies to support renewables.
- Electricity from politically unstable states in North Africa may reduce
security of electricity supply.
27
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Transeuropean networks – the case of electricity
Source: UCTE
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Transeuropean networks – the case of electricity
28
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Transeuropean networks – the case of gas
Source: Petrouleum Economist
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Transeuropean networks – the case of gas LNG
Source: E.ON Ruhrgas
29
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
A side-note: DESERTEC Australia
Part of the global DESERTEC network.
Until now only publication of a roadmap (Australia 2050: Clean Energy
Superpower).
Founder fights extradition due to illegal investments in solar power
companies.
Aims to reduce costs for renewable electricity by using economy of scale
effects through joint development of wind, solar and hydro energy.
Improving regional interdependence by creating energy links throughout
the whole Asia-Pacific region.
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Possible Infrastructure Desertec Australia
Source: Desertec Australia
30
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
DESERTEC Australia: Possible regional infrastructure
Source: Desertec Australia
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
DESERTEC Australia: Expected Development of Electricity Prices
Source: Desertec Australia
31
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Conclusions: The Case of Germany
Germany has an ambivalent effect on the EU‘s energy policy. While in
principle supporting and strengthening it, she sometimes contradicts it in everyday politics (e.g. free emission certificates for export oriented
industries, CO2-tax for cars, “special relation” with Russia, opposition to nuclear “revival”).
Germany presents itself as a technology leader mainly regarding
renewable energies, while phasing out of nuclear (despite EURATOM) and (politically) delaying partly CCS-legislation because of political
resistance. This will make it difficult to meet the visionary country’s
CO2-reduction target of 80% (> VDI-study).
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
The German Energy system in transition
Projections of the energy system of Germany until 2050
A study within the framework of the project „Future Climate“
in cooperation with the German Association of Engineers (VDI)
32
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
IKARUS-LP energy system model for Germany
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Boundary conditions and demands
GDP growth: 1.4 %/a
Population: From 82.4 millions in 2009 to 77.3 millions in 2050
Prognosis of
demand figures in the transport sector
(cargo, passenger transport), domestic
sector (living
space), small consumer sector
(workforce) and in the industry sector
(gross product)
33
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Scenarios
• Reference scenario, low prices, nuclear power retention
• Reference scenario, high prices, nuclear power retention
• Reference scenario, high prices, nuclear power phase out
• CO2-Scenario -50% compared to today, low prices, nuclear power retention
• CO2-Scenario -50%, compared to today, high prices, nuclear power retention
• CO2-Scenario -50%, compared to today, high prices, nuclear power phase out
• CO2-Scenario -75%, compared to 2000, low prices, nuclear power extension
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Overwiew of reference scenarios
The most important exogenous guidelines
Industry:
• Efficiency improvements
• Energy intensive parts of industrial gross product declining • Additional options of measures for saving of process heat
demand and electricity demand
Residence, small consumers:
• Tightening up of the federal laws of energy saving from 2020 Insulation of buildings
Reduction of electricity demand for light, power, communication, washing, cooking etc.
Transport: • 120 g/km CO2 for new cars from 2020
• Similar for trucks • Further transfer of freight traffic from road to rail
34
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Reference scenarios
Primary (PE)- and final (EE) energy CO2-Emissions
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
CO2-Reduction scenarios
Guideline of VDI/STE
(-60% as compared to 1990)
Guideline of “Future Climate“ advisory board
(-78% as compared to 1990)
35
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Primary energy
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Final energy
36
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Final energy residential sector
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Final energy transport sector
37
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Net installed capacity of power plants
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Net electricity generation
38
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
CO2 Emissions
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
CO2-Reduction costs: Marginal costs
39
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Annual additional costs: Costs of nuclear phase-out
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Annual additional costs: Additional costs of a -50% reduction scenario
40
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Annual additional costs: Additional costs of a -75% reduction scenario
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
EU energy technology strategies
Research and Development
Energy related activities within the 7th research framework program should
contribute to a sustainable energy system.
Supported technologies include:
Hydrogen and fuel cells
Renewables (fuel, electricity, heating and cooling)
development of CCS technologies as proposed by the Zero
Emissions Fossil Fuel Power Plants European Technology Platform
(ZEP)
Energy efficiency
Smart grids
Nuclear security, new fission reactor types and fusion
41
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
The Strategic Energy Technology Plan
On November 22 2007, the Commission published a Strategic Energy
Technology Plan (SET) that defined the following key challenges:
Market competitiveness of renewables
Cost efficiency of energy storage
Commercialization of fuel cells
Generation IV fission reactors
Construction of the ITER fusion facility
Networks and other supporting technologies for low-carbon energy
generation
Basic research on energy efficiency
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
EU-Commission, European Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET)
42
Institut für Energieforschung 9.07.09
Systemforschung und technologische Entwicklung (IEF-STE) Hake, J.-Fr., Fischer, W., Sander,
M.
Conclusion: EU Policies and Strategies in Transition
The EU is influencing national energy policy by setting the agenda and using
her competencies in “neighboring” policy fields.
However, most policy instruments of the EU failed to deliver the desired effects:
The prices for gas and electricity raised despite open market policies.
The EU 15 Kyoto target (-8%) are difficult to meet. Energy dependence is increasing, a common foreign EU energy strategy is still quested:
Import dependency of the EU is high and projected to rise even further
Since 2004, oil and gas imports to the EU have been disrupted several times, harming especially the new member states in Eastern Europe.
Despite several attempts to address the topic, EU crisis reaction mechanisms remain weak and no common foreign policy approach exists. This is evident in the cases of the Nabucco and the Nord Stream Pipeline.
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