The Doctorate: Policies and Statistics Nico Cloete and Johann Mouton NRF and Carnegie Convening...

The Doctorate: Policies and StatisticsNico Cloete and Johann Mouton

NRF and Carnegie ConveningPretoria,

28-29 October 2013

Figure 1: The rise of doctorates (1998–2006)

Growth in PhD graduates in South Africa: 1920 - 2011

3

Source: Garbers (1960), DNO (1982), DoE (1999), DHET (2013)

Average annual growth rate of PhD graduates, for the period 1920 – 2011

4

Source: Garbers (1960), DNO (1982), DoE (1999), DHET (2013)

Policy Frameworks in SA

1. Policies: Implementation strategies – Symbolic (compensatory legitimation)

2. Incentives: direct – indirect3. National – institutional (development- support- incentives)

Policy Moments in SA

• 1996 – NCHE report, Green and White Paper (1997)• 2000 – CHE Differentiation report, NPHE (2001)• 2004 – mergers of intuitions and funding linked to enrolment

planning • 2008 – new funning framework fully operational, end of

Programme Qualification Mix reviews • 2011 – latest accredited HEMIS data, and start of Green

Paper and NDP 2030 process.

Policy Goals to Strengthening the Doctorate1. Doctoral enrolment must grow – absent in NCHE, symbolic in

White Paper, stronger in National Plan and strong funding from 2008 (ranging from $40 000 to $60 000 per student/graduate).Priority in NDP 2030 with graduate targets (from 1500 to 5000 in 2030. Focus on SET and business management.

2. Output efficiency must improve - from 1997 focus on efficiency in general, 2008 funding weak on efficiency, 2012 Green Paper and NDP much more explicit (throughput of 75%). CHET and CREST performance and efficiency indicators (symbolic)

3. Academic staff must have PhD - Financial and Fiscal

Commission (2012) and NDP (increase from 35% to 75%)

4. Internationalisation - NPHE (2001) and Green Paper (2012) encourages post graduate recruitment, particularly SADC

5. Differentiation – policy covert/ambiguous, funding explicit

Comparison of enrolments and graduates, 1996 to 2011

7

Source: DoE (1999), SAPSE; DHET (2013), HEMIS data (2000-2013)

Average shares of the doctoral graduates in the various fields of study, 1996 to 2011

8

Source: DoE (1999), SAPSE; DHET (2013), HEMIS data (2000-2013)

Progress of 2004 intakes of new doctoral students after 7 years, according to bands of performance

9

10

Comparison of international PhD completion rates

Country Period of analysis

Norway (2002/3 cohort)

8 years

United States(1992/3/4)

10 years

Canada(2001 cohort)

9 years

United Kingdom(1996/7 cohort)

7 years

South Africa(2004 cohort)

7 years

International

(FT & PT)

(PT)

(FT)

(FT & PT)

(FT & PT)

International

(FT & PT)

(FT & PT)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

52%

46%

34%

71%

61%

71%

67%

57%

76%

Completion Rate

Percentage of the academic staff with doctorates by institution, 2011

11

Source: DHET (2013), HEMIS data (2000-2013)

Ratios of doctoral graduates to academic staff with doctoral degrees by institution, 2011

12

Source: DHET (2013), HEMIS data (2000-2013

Comparison of PhD production in South Africa with a number of selected OECD countries, 2000 and 2011

13

Country

2011 SET PhD graduates as % of

all 2011 PhD graduates

Average annual growth rate in

total PhDs 2000 - 2011

Population

2011 SET PhD graduates per

100,000 of 2011 population

2011 total PhD graduates per

100,000 of 2011 population

2011

Australia 58.4% 4.7% 22 324 000 15.9 27.2Canada 62.8% 3.3% 34 483 980 10.3 16.5Czech Republic

61.8% 9.6% 10 496 670 14.5 23.5Finland 61.2% -0.2% 5 388 272 21.1 34.4Germany 72.5% 0.5% 81 797 670 24.2 33.4Hungary 52.9% 5.1% 9 971 726 6.5 12.4Ireland 64.1% 10.1% 4 576 748 20.3 31.6Italy 63.8% 11.1% 60 723 570 11.8 18.6Korea 59.7% 6.0% 49 779 440 14.0 23.4Norway 63.9% 6.4% 4 953 000 16.7 26.2Portugal 52.1% 3.5% 10 557 560 11.4 21.9Slovak Republic

52.0% 12.8% 5 398 384 16.1 31.0Switzerland 68.5% 2.2% 7 912 398 30.1 44.0Turkey 55.7% 7.4% 73 950 000 3.5 6.3United Kingdom

59.9% 5.1% 61 761 000 19.5 32.5United States

55.4% 4.5% 311 591 900 13.0 23.4South Africa 54.2% 4.5% 51 770 560 1.6 3.0

Source: OECD (2013) Graduates by field of study, data extracted on 4 July 2013.

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Doctoral enrolments by race, 1996 to 2011

Source: DoE (1999) & DHET (2013)

Progress of the 2004 cohort of new doctoral entrants by nationality, gender and race after 7 years

15

Source: DHET (2013). PhD cohort studies.

Doctoral graduates according to nationality as percentage of total doctoral graduates, 2011

16

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

14.8%

4.3% 6.5%

40.1%

66.0%

12.6% 13.2%

25.8%

6.3%

103

632

198

1576

233

68

1040

208

406

99

Figure 4: Masters graduates (2001, 2007, 2011)

Figure 2: Doctoral enrolments at 8 sub-Saharan African universities

(2001, 2007, 2011)

Figure 3: Doctoral graduates at 8 sub-Saharan African universities

(2001, 2007, 2011)

20

Peer reviewed publications 2001, 2007, 2011

Cape Town Makerere Nairobi Ghana Botswana Dar es Salaam

Mauritius Eduardo Mondlane

700

72143

77 69 49 23 15

1017

233

10561

10660 36 23

1517

382

198 170108 90 63 46

2001 2007 2011

Publications (Web of Science, 2010)

21

20

08

20

09

20

10

232

338

381

122 129

169

90 91 89

Makerere Ghana Dar es Salaam

Eduard

o M

ondla

ne

Mauri

tius

Dar

es

Sala

am

Bots

wana

Ghana

Nair

obi

Make

rere

UC

T45 62 89 107

169 198

381

1516No. of publications % SET

African Flagship Universities: Strengthening Knowledge Production

1. Except for UCT and Makerere, there is an increasing pipeline problem between masters and the doctorate

2. Doctorate output, with the exception of UCT, is very low and this will affect the ability of the institution to publish in international journals

3. Apart from UCT, the flagship universities do not seem to have enough senior staff at the professoriate level to provide research leadership

Figure 5: External pressures on doctorate production in SA

Projects

Ford Foundation project called ‘The Successful Cultivation of Social Science and HumanitiesDoctoral Scholarship in South Africa’ led by Professor Cheryl de La Rey. Funding to the Centre of Higher Education Transformation (CHET) from theCarnegie Corporation for a project titled ‘Transformation in South Africa Through aCollaborative Book Project’. (The book from this project to be titled Knowledge Productionin South African Higher Education by Nico Cloete, Peter Maassen, Tebogo Moja and JohannMouton, is scheduled for publication in mid-2014.)1. to provide research leadership

African Flagship Universities: Strengthening Knowledge Production

1. Except for UCT and Makerere, there is an increasing pipeline problem between masters and the doctorate

2. Doctorate output, with the exception of UCT, is very low and this will affect the ability of the institution to publish in international journals

3. Apart from UCT, the flagship universities do not seem to have enough senior staff at the professoriate level to provide research leadership