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The DTM Demographic Transition Model
APHuG
DTM
• Seeks to explain the transition of a country from a high birth and death rate and low natural increase rate to low birth & death rates and low rate of natural increase
• Model based on UK’s population shifts
4 Stages + 5th?
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5?
Stage 1
• Only small societies with little contact to rest of world is in Stage 1
• Europe before industrialization
• Time of Low Growth • High CBR
• High infant mortality • Need workers for
agriculture • Religious beliefs
• High CDR • Disease • Famine • Sanitation • Poor health care • Competition for food • Lack of education
Stage 2
• High Birth rate • Falling Death rate
• Better health care • Improved hygiene • Improved sanitation • Improved food
production • Decreased infant
mortality rate • Population rises steadily Began for UK & US during
Industrial Revolution Africa, Asia, Latin America around 1950 Many African countries are still in this stage
Stage 3 • Birth rate starts to fall • Family planning • Lower infant mortality • Less workers needed • Increased standard of
living • Changing status of
women • Death Rate continues to
fall • Population continues to
grow UK/US late 1800’s Now – many South American countries China
Stage 4 • Low Growth • Birth Rate is low • Death rate is low • Population is steady • Typical of US and UK today
Stage 5?
• Slight fall in Birth rate • Death rate stable • NIR= gentle decrease • Declining population
• Why?
• Better health • Later marriages • Good health care • Reliable food supply • Living longer
Many European countries are headed is this direction
Population Pyramids and the DTM
• Population pyramids can clue you in to what Stage of the DTM a country is in.
Stage 1 Pyramids
Stage 2 Pyramids
Stage 3 Pyramids
Stage 4 Pyramids
Stage 5 Pyramids
Weaknesses of the DTM
• What does the model assume?
– All countries will develop
– All countries develop at the same speed
– That countries will never reach a point where population declines
– All countries BR and DR will follow the same pattern
Summary • In stage 1 the Birth rates and death rates are …………… The
BR is high because ……..The DR is high because …….
• In stage 2 the BR remains ………however the DR ………This is because ..… Examples of countries in stage 2 are …….
• In stage 3 the DR continues to …… slowly but the BR also starts to ………….. This is because ……Examples of countries in stage 3 are …….
• In stage 4 the BR is low because …………..and DR is low because ……………. Examples of countries in stage 4 are …….
• As a country enters stage 5 the .……… falls below the ……. and the population ……… Example of countries in stage 5 are …….
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