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The Idaho Economy Coming Back – Slowly. Idaho Department of Labor Communications and Research March 13, 2013. - 5.6 %. - 7.2 %. 2.6 %. 3.4 %. Idaho’s Silver Tsunami?. Idaho Population 55 and Older 1990: 19.5% 2000: 19.6% 2011: 24.7%. Thank You. Questions?. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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The Idaho Economy Coming Back – Slowly
Idaho Department of LaborCommunications and Research
March 13, 2013
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun Jul
Aug Se
pO
ctN
ov Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun Jul
Aug Se
pO
ctN
ov Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun Jul
Aug Se
pO
ctN
ov Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun Jul
Aug Se
pO
ctN
ov Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun Jul
Aug Se
pO
ctN
ov Dec
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
3.6%
8.8%Aug.-Nov.
2010
6.3%
Idaho’s Unemployment Rate2008-2012
MichiganMinnesota
VermontWisconsin
IndianaTennessee
OhioNorth Dakota
OregonAlabama
New HampshireOklahoma
South CarolinaKansas
VirginiaNebraska
IllinoisHawaii
KentuckyMissouri
MassachusettsSouth Dakota
DelawareMaine
UtahNew York
USNorth Carolina
AlaskaArizona
IowaMaryland
WashingtonPennsylvania
WyomingGeorgia
DCNew Jersey
West VirginiaArkansas
Rhode IslandFlorida
ColoradoCalifornia
TexasLouisiana
MississippiConnecticut
MontanaNew Mexico
IdahoNevada
-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Percentage Change in Unemployment RateJune 2009 toDecember 2010
New HampshireNew Jersey
New YorkPennsylvania
DelawareIllinoisMaine
North CarolinaMaryland
IndianaNorth Dakota
ArkansasWest Virginia
ConnecticutRhode Island
WisconsinGeorgia
MassachusettsMississippi
AlaskaNew Mexico
South DakotaDCUS
VirginiaColoradoNebraskaMontana
OregonIowa
South CarolinaCaliforniaVermontKentucky
ArizonaKansas
OklahomaTennessee
MichiganWashington
HawaiiMinnesota
TexasWyomingAlabama
OhioLouisianaMissouri
IdahoFloridaNevada
Utah
-35.0% -30.0% -25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0%
Percentage Change In Unemployment RateDecember 2010 toDecember 2012
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Ju
n Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov De
cJa
nFe
bM
arAp
rM
ay Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov De
cJa
nFe
bM
arAp
rM
ay Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov De
cJa
nFe
bM
arAp
rM
ay Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov De
cJa
nFe
bM
arAp
rM
ay Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov De
c
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
670,000
680,000
690,000
700,000
710,000
720,000
730,000
740,000
727,691
690,215Nov 2009
725,543
Idaho's Total Employment2008-2012
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Ju
n Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov De
cJa
nFe
bM
arAp
rM
ay Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov De
cJa
nFe
bM
arAp
rM
ay Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov De
cJa
nFe
bM
arAp
rM
ay Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov De
cJa
nFe
bM
arAp
rM
ay Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov De
cJa
nFe
bM
arAp
rM
ay Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov De
cJa
nFe
bM
arAp
rM
ay Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov De
c
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
730,000
735,000
740,000
745,000
750,000
755,000
760,000
765,000
770,000
775,000
780,000
733,956
759,919
750,275
762,094
773,728April
774,653December
Idaho’s Labor Force2006-2012
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
245,662
172,000
229,364
183,823
141,108
182,465
New Hires
JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PRM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PO
CTN
OV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PRM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PO
CTN
OV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PRM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PO
CTN
OV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PRM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PO
CTN
OV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PRM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PO
CTN
OV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PRM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PO
CTN
OV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PRM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PO
CTN
OV
DEC
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
560,000
580,000
600,000
620,000
640,000
660,000
680,000 669,500June 2007
581,600January 2010
610,500June 2010
620,500June 2012
Monthly Idaho Nonfarm Jobs2006-2012
Recession
JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PRM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PO
CTN
OV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PRM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PO
CTN
OV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PRM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PO
CTN
OV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PRM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PO
CTN
OV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PRM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PO
CTN
OV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PRM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PO
CTN
OV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MA
RA
PRM
AY
JUN
JUL
AU
GSE
PO
CTN
OV
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
June 2006
April 2008
July 2009
October 2010
Year-Over-Year Percentage Change in Idaho Nonfarm Jobs
North DakotaDistrict of Columbia
TexasMichigan
UtahIndiana
KentuckyNew York
AlaskaTennesseeOklahoma
MassachusettsOhio
LouisianaSouth Carolina
MinnesotaVermontColorado
VirginiaWashington
PennsylvaniaSouth Dakota
CaliforniaMarylandNebraska
OregonNorth Carolina
GeorgiaFlorida
WyomingArizonaIllinois
IowaWest Virginia
DelawareArkansas
HawaiiMontana
KansasIdaho
New JerseyConnecticut
New HampshireMaine
WisconsinRhode Island
AlabamaMississippi
NevadaNew Mexico
Missouri
-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
Percentage ChangeIn Nonfarm JobsJune 2009-June 2012Idaho in Red, Border States in Green
Private Jobs
All Jobs
0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 160,000,000
116,649,000
138,825,000
US Jobs June 2007
Private Jobs
All Jobs
0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 160,000,000
8,383,000
7,821,000
US Jobs 2010
-5.6%
-7.2%
Private Jobs
All Jobs
0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 160,000,000
3,941,000
3,552,000
US Jobs 2012
2.6%
3.4%
Private Jobs
All Jobs
300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000
551,500
669,500
Idaho Jobs June 2007
Private Jobs
All Jobs
300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000
61,200
59,000
Idaho Jobs June 2010
-8.8%
-11.1%
Private Jobs
All Jobs
300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000
13,500
9,600
Idaho Jobs June 2012
1.4%
2.4%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000Idaho Goods, Services Jobs
Goods Service
1990 Average Wage
$18,234
2011 Average Wage
$33,766
1990Average Wage
$23,791
2011 Average Wage
$43,784
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q22003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
$15
$16
$17
$18
$19
$20
$21
$22
$23 $22.27Q3 2008
$20.77Q1 2010
$22.03Q2 2012
Idaho Wages 2003-2012Annualized on a Quarterly Basis
(In Billions)
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012$1,000,000,000
$2,000,000,000
$3,000,000,000
$4,000,000,000
$5,000,000,000
$6,000,000,000
$7,000,000,000
$6.3 BillionQ1 2008
$4.8 BillionQ1 2009
$6.4 BillionQ2 2011
$6.9 BillionQ3 2012
Idaho Business ProfitsAnnualized on a Quarterly Basis
2007200720082008200920092010201020112011201220122013201320142014201420142015201520162016201720172017201820182019201920202020500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
750,000
800,000
Job Growth Rates to Return to Pre-Recession Levels
2.2% Growth Rate Long-Term Projection of a 1.6% Growth RateExisting 1.2% Growth Rate Pre-Recession Levels
Peaked at 669,500 Jobs in June 2007
59,000 jobs lost from June 2007 to June 2010.
Idaho’s Silver Tsunami?
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
In and Out MigrationDriver’s Licenses – State of Idaho
IN OUT NET
22 and younger
22 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 and older0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Idaho Interstate UI ClaimsWho’ s moving in, who’s moving
out?Week of Jan. 12, 2013
In-coming Unemployed Claims (to Idaho) Out-going Unemployed Claims (out of Idaho)
1990 2000 20110%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
19.5% 19.5% 19.5%
0.1%5.1%
Percent of Idaho Population 55 and Older
AlaskaVermont
New HampshireColoradoMichigan
MaineMontana
New MexicoWashington
OregonWyoming
IdahoGeorgia
South CarolinaHawaii
MinnesotaCaliforniaDelawareMaryland
OhioWisconsinLouisiana
VirginiaUtah
TennesseeKentucky
North CarolinaMississippi
West VirginiaIllinois
IndianaMassachusetts
TexasArizona
Rhode IslandNevada
AlabamaConnecticut
New YorkSouth Dakota
MissouriKansas
NebraskaNorth Dakota
New JerseyIowa
PennsylvaniaOklahoma
ArkansasFlorida
District of Columbia
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
26.3%
Percent Increase inShare of Population55 and OlderFrom 2000 to 2011
Idaho Population55 and Older1990: 19.5%2000: 19.6%2011: 24.7%
NebraskaMaine
New JerseyDC
New MexicoNew York
KansasConnecticut
OklahomaHawaii
MarylandCalifornia
MassachusettsTexas
Rhode IslandMinnesota
PennsylvaniaIllinois
WashingtonUS
UtahColorado
IowaAlabamaMontana
North DakotaIndiana
MississippiDelaware
FloridaArizona
West VirginiaLouisiana
OhioGeorgia
MissouriNevadaVirginia
WisconsinKentuckyArkansas
South CarolinaNorth Carolina
South DakotaOregon
TennesseeAlaska
MichiganNew Hampshire
VermontWyoming
Idaho
-2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%
Percent Increase inHouseholds With Householder or Spouse Not in Labor Force2007 to 2011
Percent of IdahoHouseholds WithNeither Adult in
Labor Force2007: 16.5%2011: 20.1%
Questions?
Thank You
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