The Most Important Topic - WordPress.comJul 01, 2017  · ’82 Harvard Grad, Famous for climate...

The Most Important Topic In the History of Humanity

J.MorrisHicks

Victoria,BritishColumbiaJuly23,2017

Survival of the Human Species

Whatisthattopic?

TheContentsofthisLectureMayChangeYour

LifeForever!

World’sFirstMainstreamArticleAbouttheSingle

BiggestThreattotheFutureof

Humanity

“Myfeelingwas,andis,ifthere'sa

onepercentchancethatwe’vesetoffachainreactionthat

couldendthehumanrace,thenthatshouldbe

somethingthatthepublicknowsandthinksabout.”

LifebeganonEarth…

•  About4billionyearsago

•  Humansemergedasaspecies

just200,000yearsago

Let’sStartattheBeginningEarth,Onesmallplanetamongbillionsofplanetsinourgalaxy,whichisjustoneofbillionsofgalaxiesintheuniverse.

Puttingourtimehereinperspective

•  Ifwecrammedall4billionyearsof“life

onEarth”intojustoneyear…

•  Humanshavebeenhereforjust26

minutesofthelasthourofthatyear

20SecondsSinceChrist

FourHugeGrosslyUnsustainableSituations

1.  Overpopulation

2.  Live,work,travel&STUFF

3.  Fossilfueldependence

4.  OURFOODCHOICES

Ourfoodchoicesgiveus…

HOPESingularpowerofourfoodchoicesto

PromoteHealth,HopeandHarmonyonPlanetEarth

LAND–WATER–ENERGYAFactorofTEN

WhatCanWe“Hope”For?

1.  Toslow,stoporreversemostchronicdisease

2.  Effortlessandpermanentweight-loss

3.  Reduceworldhunger,oceanacidification,species

extinction,waterpollutionandmuch,muchmore

4.  Returnmillionsoffarmingacreagetoforests

5.  Greatlyreduceoreliminate#1causeofclimatechange

PROBLEMisthatwemayhavewaitedTOOLONG

CarryingCapacity

How many humans can the planet sustain indefinitely?

•  AverageEuropeanLifestyle:TWOBillion

•  AmericanLifestyle:ONEBILLION

Source:GlobalFootprintNetwork--footprintnetwork.org

1.OverpopulationHowCanWeSolveIt?

1.  DailyBirthsminusDeaths=220,000(netgain)

2.  380,000Births–160,000Deaths=+220,000

3.  ReduceBirthsto100,000/day(U.N.&Religions)

4.  =Populationdecreaseof60,000/day(160-100)

5.  =Annualdecreaseof22million

6.  45yearstolowerpopulationbyonebillion

7.  We’llneed160yearstohit4BillionMark(yr.2177)

8.  Details?Abovemyjobgrade

2.OverconsumptionSTUFF:GlobalEconomybasedonInfiniteGrowthinaWorldofFiniteResources

1.  NeweconomybasedonSustainability

2.  U.N.DevelopsSustainabilityRules

3.  ViolationsPunishablebyDeath

4.  NewGREENcitiesallovertheworld

5.  Details?Abovemyjobgrade

110TONSofFuelperTrip

3.BurningFossilFuelsAspopulationandconsumptiondrops,this

problemwilltakecareofitself.

1.  SustainabilityRuleswillfavorGREENenergy

2.  Theruleswillalsodiscourageforeigntrade

3.  Airtravelwillonlybepermittedforemergencies

4.  GREENmanufacturingandfoodproductionwillbe

mostlylocal

5.  Fossilfuelconsumptionexpectedtodropby90%

6.  Details?Abovemyjobgrade

FossilFuelReduction?

4.OurFoodChoicesWhySoImportant?

1.  Theydeterminehowtheplanetisused

2.  Theyhaveahugeimpactonourhealth

3.  #1DriveroftheCostofHealthCare

4.  #1Driverofdeforestation*

5.  #1DriverofSoilErosion*

6.  #1DriverofOceanAcidification*

7.  #1DriverofSpeciesExtinction*

8.  #1DriverofClimateChange*

*Relatedtotheout-of-controlgrowthofourcivilizedpopulation

Here’sHowWe’reDoingonFOODCHOICES

•  FocusingonwhatweDOeat•  Notwhatwe’reavoiding•  Implied“wiggleroom”

The closer we get to eating a diet of whole, plant-based foods, the better off we will be. ---T. Colin Campbell PhD, Cornell University

Notnecessarilyvegetarianorvegan

LivestockConsumptionbyRegion

SpeciesExinction

August2010ReportfromtheU.N.

“Scientistsestimatethat150to200speciesof

plant,insect,birdandmammalbecomeextinct

every24hours…nearly1,000timesthe“natural”

or“background”rate…greaterthananything

theworldhasexperiencedfor65millionyears.”

CouldHumansBecomeExtinct?

Let’sLookatHistoryEasterIsland–BeforeHumansArrived

After1200YearsofHumanControl

InSearchof“BigPicture”Scientists

1.  Narrowfieldsofstudy

2.  Fewunderstandthe“bigpicture”

3.  Mostgetpaidbyconservativeentities

4.  BOLDviewscanputcareeratrisk

JacquesCousteau

“Humankindmay,ormaynotbe,partoftheplanthatnaturehasfortheEarthinthefuture.Lifewillbereborn,butfirsttheworldasweknowitnowwilldie.”1997at87

Frenchnavalofficer,explorer,conservationist,filmmaker,innovator,scientist,photographer,authorandresearcher

FrankFenner,MD,Scientist,andEnvironmentalist

"Homosapienswillbecomeextinct,perhapswithin100years…It'san

irreversiblesituation.Ithinkit'stoolate."2010atage95

PeterWadhams,ScD

“TheIPCCisguiltyofconspiracyofcomplacency…OuronlychanceistobeginurgentlyremovingCO2

fromtheatmosphere.”2016

StephenEmmott,PhD

“Weurgentlyneedtodo—andImeanactuallydo—somethingradicaltoavertaglobalcatastrophe.ButIdon’tthinkwewill.Ithinkwe’ref_____.”

ManagescomputationalscienceatMicrosoftinUK,visitingprofessoratUniv.ofOxford,managesateamofscientistswhostudyalltrendsthataffectourlives.Heendshis2013book…

JamesLovelock,PhD

BBC2010“Whenyouseethewholepicture,itisreallyfearsomelybad…IftheEarthimprovesasaresultofourpresence,thenwewillflourish.Ifitdoesn't,thenwewilldieoff…"Ifearthatnotmanyofuswillsurvive,atbestaboutabillion--possiblyalotlessthanthat.”

Independentscientist,environmentalist,futurist;bestknownforhisGaiaHypothesis,whichpostulatesthattheEarthfunctionsasaself-regulatingsystem.NASAcontractor,winnerofmanyawards,PhDfromLondonSchoolofHygieneandTropicalMedicine.(Aliveandwellat98)

T.ColinCampbell,PhD

“Thecloserwegettoeatingadietofwhole,plant-basedfoods,thebetter

offwewillbe.”

Cornellprofessorwhodirectedthelargeststudyoftherelationshipbetweendiet

andhealthinhistory

“Nolessthanourfutureasaspecieshangsinthebalance.”

BillMcKibben,Activist’82HarvardGrad,Famousforclimatechange

“Tobeentirelyhonest,wedon’tknowforsurethatwecanslowdownglobalwarmingenoughtomatter.We’ve

waitedaverylongtimetogetstarted.”FromApril2017video

Environmentalist,Author,Journalist,founded350.orgin2008andwontheGandhiPeaceAwardin2013

DataSuggestsWeHaven’tStarted

NowinUnchartedWaters

Global Sea Ice Area (nsidc.org) Climate Change Tipping Point?

3-22-17SeaIceNews

SeaIceSinkstoRecordLevelsatBOTH

PolesonMarch7andMarch3intheArctic

andAntarcticrespectively.OnMarch3,seaicearoundAntarcticahititslowest

extenteverrecordedbysatellitesattheendofsummer

intheSouthernHemisphere,asurprisingturnofevents

afterdecadesofmoderateseaiceexpansion.

3 Times as Many Icebergs!

Arethingsgettingbetter?

Runaway Luxury Train

Faster. More People. More Comforts.

RobertGoodland,PhDWorldBankEnvironmentalSpecialistfor23Years

Sept.2013“Nowthereappearstobeonlyoneremainingpragmaticwaytoreverseclimatechangebeforeit’stoolate–andthat’sbytakingquickandlarge-scaleactionsin

food,agricultureandforestry.”

2009“Livestockandtheirby-productsactuallyaccountforatleast32,564milliontonsofCO2peryearor51%ofannualworldwideGhGemissions.”

FoodChoicesnolongerEnough

1.  Tippingpoints:Waterconsumption,climate

change,speciesextinction

2.  Theproblemwith“tippingpoints”isthatyou

don’tknowwheretheyareuntilyouhave

passedthem

3.  Wemustdramaticallyslowthemassiveheat

engineknownasmoderncivilization

MyOwnConclusionsAbout saving our civilization and our species

1.  Population.Consumption.FossilFuels.

2.   IFthereisachance,FOODisparamount

3.  Canmovetheneedleinfiveyears

MediaisNOTreportingthe “big picture” about what we NEED to know

1.  Icebergs.Mediareportsabouthumansafety,navigationalbenefitsand

beauty.Failstomentionpossibleclimatechangetippingpoints

2.  ClimateChange.MediareportsoneveryfireinCaliforniabutfailstoreport

onmassivedeforestationandrecordlevelsofCO2inouratmosphere

3.  WaterShortage.Mediareportsonhumanitarianeffortstoprovidewaterfor

thebillionsofpeoplewhodon’thaveenoughbutfailtoreportonthesteady

declineofunderwateraquifersthatbillionsneedforfood

4.  EconomicGrowth.Mediareportsthe“goodnews”abouteconomicgrowthin

ourcountrybutnevermentionsthegrosslyunsustainableindustrialmachine

ClimateChangeALARM!

"Nothingshortofaperceivedglobalemergencycaninfluenceenoughleadersingovernment,industryandacademiatoquicklyjoinforcesinmakingthereversalofclimatechangetheentireworld'stop

priority.Thentheymustworkurgentlytogetherasifourfutureasaspeciesdependedontheirsuccess--

becauseitVERYlikelydoes!"--J.MorrisHicks

Dowehaveachance?

Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful,

committed, citizens can change the world. Indeed,

it is the only thing that ever has. — Margaret Mead

People who are crazy enough to think that they

can change the world—are the ones who do.

— Steve Jobs 

Blog:hpjmh.com

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J.Morris(Jim)Hicks

jmorrishicks@me.com

917-399-9700