The Post Rio+20 Agenda Three Actions Bringing Global Benefits€¦ · The Post Rio+20 Agenda Three...

The Post Rio+20 Agenda

Three Actions Bringing Global Benefits

Joseph Alcamo

Chief Scientist, UNEP

Action 1

Reduce short-lived climate pollutants

Slowing global warming and protecting public health

Joseph Alcamo

Chief Scientist, UNEP

What are short-lived climate pollutants?

Multiple benefits of reducing short-lived climate

pollutants:

• Slow down near-term global warming, reduce regional

impacts of climate change

• Reduce air pollution - Protect health and crops

Short-lived climate pollutants: Cause global warming &

relatively short-lived in the atmosphere.

Black carbon, methane, tropospheric ozone,

hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)

Black carbon measures

• Improved stoves

• Upgraded brick kilns

• Particle filters for diesel vehicles

Methane measures

• Recovery from fossil fuel production

(oil & gas production; coal mines)

• Waste / landfill management

A package of 16 measures can substantially reduce black

carbon + methane emissions and achieve multiple benefits

No technical breakthroughs.

These measures already implemented in many countries

Cost-effective

Three UNEP studies with scientific

community

1. “Near Term Climate Protection and Clean Air

Benefits”

2. “Global Assessment of Black Carbon and

Tropospheric Ozone”.

3. “HFCs: Critical Link in Protecting Climate and

the Ozone Layer

Emission reductions in 2030 (rel. to BAU) Methane : - 40% Black carbon : - 80%

How Achieve

Action against short-lived climate pollutants

slows down global warming

Slowing down near term global warming

How much?

16 measures reduce global warming 0.4 - 0.5 oC (2010 - 2050) relative to reference scenario almost halving temperature rise

Glacier lake outburst floods

Cannot substitute for CO2 reductions

Need both …

1. Reducing short-lived climate pollutants: slows down near-term global warming

2. CO2 reductions for long term climate protection

Air pollution: unfinished business on the sustainable development agenda

• 3 billion people cook and heat using open fires and leaky stoves

burning biomass and coal.

• Around 2 million people die each year prematurely from illness

attributable to indoor air pollution

Source: WHO statistics

About 1.3 (3.7?) million premature deaths each year due to

outside air pollution.

Outdoor air pollution

Indoor air pollution

Progress towards global

environmental goals

(UNEP GEO-5)

“little or no progress”

“Indoor air pollution from particulate matter continues to have major

health impacts, particularly on women and children.”

“Some progress”

Despite some progress, outdoor air

pollution continues to have serious impacts

on the environment & human health.

Action against short lived climate pollutants

reduces air pollution & saves lives

East Asia + Pacific

750 thousand deaths/yr

1.9

S, W, & Central Asia

1.15 million deaths/yr

Reducing black carbon protects public health

Avoided premature mortalities (2030) from outdoor air pollution

Total lives saved globally = 2.4 million / year

Premature mortalities avoided in 2030 thousands/year

Africa

200

thousand deaths/yr

From UNEP (2011)

Black carbon measures

• Improved stoves

• Upgraded brick kilns

• Particle filters for diesel vehicles

Methane measures

• Recovery from fossil fuel production

(coal mines; gas distribution)

• Waste / landfill management

How much does it cost?

Costs of implementing 16 measures

50% of black carbon and methane emission reductions:

Low cost or no-cost Recovery of methane, better fuel efficiency

Climate and Clean Air Coalition

February, 2012: 6 countries + UNEP

End 2012: 27 countries (+EU) + 23 non-state partners

Political action now: the Coalition

Initiatives

1. Reducing Black Carbon Emissions from

Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicles and Engines

2. Mitigating Black Carbon and Other Pollutants

from Brick Production

3. Mitigating SLCPs from the Municipal Solid

Waste Sector

4. Promoting HFC Alternative Technology and

Standards

5. Accelerating Methane and Black Carbon

Reductions from Oil and Natural Gas

Production

6. National Action Plans

Conclusion

Reducing short-lived climate pollutants ...

... An important opportunity to gain global climate

benefits and local public health protection

Action 2

Scale up early warning systems

Protecting people and complementing climate adaptations

Climate-related natural disasters

- Floods

- Droughts

- Wind storms

- Forest fires

- Heat waves

Impact of extreme climate events

How to cope with climate-extremes?

In 2008, over 20 million people displaced by sudden-onset climate-related disasters. (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs)

In 2009, 50 million people affected by extreme weather events (UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction)

ISDR

Scale up early warning systems

“Plan C”

Source: FEWS Net

Source: AMMA Project

Plan A: Mitigate climate change through emission reductions.

Plan B: Adapt to climate change.

Plan C: Protect the population through early warning of climate extremes

Estimated food security conditions,

3rd Quarter 2012 (July-September)

FEWS NET USAID Food Early Warning

Alerts/Warnings about individual current hazards

GDACS Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System

Alerts about many different current hazards and disasters

National Hurricane Center Warnings about imminent hazards

Hurricane conditions 8 October, 2008 10:31 EDT

Source: National Hurricane Center

Many Current Early Warning Systems

Many early warning systems

• Most only deal with one aspect of climate-related risks or hazards, e.g. heat waves or drought.

• Most systems have large gaps in geographic coverage

• Most systems need improvement in how warnings are disseminated to users and how users respond.

• Most do not draw (fully) on knowledge from vulnerability research

• Most systems do not cover the entire early warning landscape from collection of meteorological data to delivery and response of users.

Some shortcomings of current systems

Many early warning systems

Worldwide climate early warning system

Objectives

1) Integrate fragmented warning systems (floods, famine, heat waves, wildfires …)

2) Integrate: climate predictions … with vulnerability studies …with preparedness planning

3) Provide actionable warnings on national/local level warnings directly translatable into action by local users “bridging the last mile”

Climate Early Warning System (CLIM-WARN)

Source: AMMA Project

Source: CIESIN

Now possible to scale up early warning systems

US National Weather Prediction Service

Precipitation forecast

(B = below normal)

Issued 16 Sept. 2010

Period of forecast: March-April-May 2011

District-level assessment of vulnerability to climate change. O’Brian et al. (2004)

• Steadily improving medium- term forecasting

• Global communication capabilities

• Ability to assess vulnerability throughout world on district-level

Feb-Mar-Apr 2011

Climate Early Warning System (CLIM-WARN)

Objective: Test out idea for end-to-end early warning system

CLIM-WARN – UNEP Early Warning Case Study

Meteorological network

Acquisition + processing of data

Vulnerable groups

Preparedness planning

Front End:

Back End:

Data/meteorology

Delivery & uptake

Delivery of warnings

Uptake of warnings

Climate Early Warning System (CLIM-WARN)

Case studies:

Burkina Faso, Ghana, Kenya

Plan A mitigate

Plan B adapt

Plan C protect

Scale up early warning systems:

End-to-end, multi-hazard, climate-related

early warning systems

Conclusion

Source: AMMA Project

Source: CIESIN

Action 3

Enhance global food security

… through sustainable consumption and production

World Food Summit (2009): Four pillars of food security:

Availability

Access

Utilization

Stability

Food security has many dimensions

But these four pillars have an ecological foundation

And we are undermining this foundation

Society is undermining the ecological foundation of the food system

Agriculture

Climate impacts changes in precipitation + warmer temperatures

Loss of biodiversity – on-farm, off-farm

Losing agricultural land to other uses: bionergy crops, urban expansion

Loss of land through degradation: 20% of cultivated area degrading

Fisheries

Fish: 10% total calories consumed, but 16% animal protein

Marine fisheries: 53% fully exploited; 32% overexploited (FAO)

Overfishing, habitat destruction (declining coral reefs),

habitat pollution (coastal dead zones), climate impacts

What to do about it?

Towards sustainable food systems:

1. Sustainable agriculture

Farm-level

Landscape

Global Mixed-use, Indonesia (Source: World Bank)

3. Sustainable consumption and supply chains

2. Sustainable fisheries

Marine protected areas

Reduce/remove “perverse” subsidies

Find alternative feed for aquaculture

• Assist smallholder farmers set up centralized produce storage, processing

b. Move towards a Sustainable Diet

3 kg grain = 1 kg meat; 1/3 crop area livestock

In developed countries:

• less meat

• more seasonal foods

What to do about it?

Towards sustainable food systems: 3. Sustainable consumption & supply chains

c. Reorient the Food Supply Chain

• Encourage standard-setting within the food industry

• Certify and label “sustainable production” through p/p partnerships

• Include smallholders in certification and labelling programs.

Consumer

Production to retail

Food Loss and Wastage (kg/person-yr) a. Reduce Food Loss and Wastage

• Public campaign to reduce food waste

• Re-examine food quality standards: Expiry dates?

Whole sys, eff

Conclusions on Food Security

Society undermining the ecological foundation of the world food system

But many options for sustainable food system + enhancing food security

- Not only sustainable agriculture, sustainable fisheries

- Also, sustainable consumption & production

Summing Up

1. Reducing short lived climate pollutants global climate

benefits + local public health protection

Three actions that bring global benefits

2. Scaling up early warning systems Protecting vulnerable

people worldwide against extreme climate events

3. Enhancing food security through sustainable consumption

and production Increase food security worldwide + protect the

ecological foundation of the food system.

The Post Rio+20 Agenda

Three Actions Bringing Global Benefits

Joseph Alcamo

Chief Scientist, UNEP