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The Structure of Error Components in 2010 Census Coverage Error Estimation: P-sample estimates. Mary H. Mulry & Bruce D. Spencer U.S. Census Bureau Northwestern Univ. 2010 International Total Survey Error Workshop June 15, 2010. Census Coverage Error. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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The Structure of Error Componentsin 2010 Census Coverage Error Estimation: P-sample estimates
Mary H. Mulry & Bruce D. SpencerU.S. Census Bureau Northwestern Univ.
2010 International Total Survey Error Workshop June 15, 2010
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Census Coverage Error• Net error = omissions – erroneous enumerations
= True Pop – census• DSE used to estimate True Pop
• Enumeration sample (E-sample)• Population sample (P-sample)
• Components of census coverage:Erroneous enumerationsOmissions = net error + erroneous enumerations
(weighted P-sample not suitable for component error)
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Error structure for component errors
• Recent studies (Mulry 2008 2009, Spencer 2008 2009)
• Have general design for simulation to study synthesis of sampling and nonsampling errors
• Have decompositions of E-sample & P-sample nonsampling errors as functions of field & processing errors for net error & component errors• Have considered the data available from evaluations• E-sample models presented at 2009 ITSEW
Dual System Estimator
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DSE = Enumerations not imputed
Correct enumeration rate __________________________________________
Match rate
from P-sample
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Focus on P-sample• Match rate estimates census enumeration
rate for DSE• Sample selected independent of census
• 170,000 HUs in US; 7,500 HUs in Puerto Rico• Interviews conducted Aug – Oct 2010
• Census Day was April 1, 2010• Followup conducted early 2011 after initial
matching to collect more info on unresolveds• Final matching after Followup
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P-sample seeks to answer to 2 questions
• Is person in the P-sample?• Has to live in HU on Census Day• Complication for usual residence: Some
move between Census Day & Interview Day
• Does the person have a matching census enumeration at usual residence on Census Day?
Interview asks(paraphrased)
• Who lives here now?• Did each person live here on Census Day?• If not, where did the person live?
• includes probes to aid memory
• Did anyone else live here on Census Day?• If yes, where did they move?
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People in P-sample
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In-mover moves into sample block after Census Day
P-sample out-mover moves to Group Quarters or out of US after Census Day
Stable Resident lives in sample block on Census Day & Interview Day
Sample block
P-sample status
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HU in HU out not HU HU in HU out not HUStable resident X XIn-mover X XP out-mover X XNP out-mover X XInterloper X XOut-of-scope X
Census Day Interview Day
Yellow = in the P-sample
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Types of errors in data affecting P-sample status
• Membership in housing unit population• Usual residence on Interview Day• Usual residences on both Census Day
& Interview Day• Geocoding housing unit interviewed
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How errors in P-sample status occur
Failure to detect
False detection
Types of errors• Population member• IntD usual residence• CenD & IntD usual res.• Geocoding
Truth: Stable Resident in P-sample
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Int Day in HU out of sample NP out-mover
Error Coded out of sample
InterloperInt Day & Cen Day in HUs out of sample
Not in HU Pop (GQ or out of US on Cen Day)
Out-of-scope
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Errors in data causing errors in match status
• Usual residence on Census Day• Causes search for match to look in wrong
place• Identification of census enumeration• Geocoding housing unit
Truth: Stable Resident has match
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Cen Day in HU out of sample
In-mover nonmatch
Error Coded
Stable residentnonmatch
HU geocoded in wrong block
Enumeration not found since items missing
Stable resident nonmatch
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Missing items can lead to problems in finding a match
Census
Joe Anders 40
Sue Anders 38
B. Anders 16
P-sample
Joe Anders 40
Sue Anders 38
Bob Smith 17
Jim Smith 15?
“B.” may be Bob, or Jim, or a 3rd son
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P-sample x
(geocoding error)
search area
Census x
(true)
Geocoding error causes listing HU in the wrong block. Census enumerates in correct block. Match to census enumeration outside the search area is not found. P-sample person is coded nonmatch
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Sources of errors
• Processing errors• 2 studies evaluate 2010 CCM
• Data collection errors• 4 studies evaluate for 2010 CCM
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Info on processing error
• Matching Error Study• All types of errors
• Administrative Records Study• Types of error: ID enumeration, HU pop
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Info on data collection error
• Respondent debriefings• Types of error: HU pop, CenDay & IntDay usual residence
• Study of Missed Housing Units• Type of error: geocoding
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Info on data collection error
• Recall bias study• Type of error: CenDay usual residence
• Comparison of census operations with CCM results• Type of error: geocoding
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Next steps
• Design estimators of E-sample & P-sample nonsampling errors • For use in simulation study to
synthesize errors • Avoid double counting errors
• Continue to develop better understanding of error structure
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