The Wrong Crystal Ball Dr. Barry Blesser Blesser Associates

The Wrong Crystal Ball

Dr. Barry Blesser

Blesser Associates

2

Modes of Discussion

*** Who Owns the Question? *** Pattern Recognition Language Vocabulary Paradigms Theories Speculations View from 1,000 ft vs 30,000 ft.

3

Technology Business

4

Technology Paradigm Shifts WW II Technology Impacts Society You Bet Your Company Development Size is Everything Redefinition of Barriers to Entry Shortened Lifetimes of Products No Low Hanging Fruits Technology as Commodity Quality as Discardable

5

Classical Product Evolution Concept Invention Laboratory Prototype Professional Introduction Economic Manufacture Semi-Professional Consumer Model

6

Paradigm Inversion Sony-Philips on CD development $600M for First Model Goal of High Volume Immediately $12 Incremental Cost Total System Development Partial Borrowing

7

Acceleration of Life Cycles

8

Misleading Growth

9

Stages in Product Life Cycle

Innovation and product productivity vary during a thread’s life-stages:

Infancy Birth, rapid learning, uncertain future

Adolescent Others follow trend, energetic

innovation

Adulthood Mature product ranges, less innovation

Retirement Market for technology declines

Death Only antiquities remain

10

Innovation (Practitioner View)

•Initially high rate of invention with few resources

•Resource grow, but rate of invention declines

•Resources decline with their related marketplace

0100200300400500600700800900

Infancy Adolescence Adulthood Retirement Death

Re

so

urc

es

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Ra

te o

f In

ve

nti

onInnovation

Resource

Invention Rate

11

Innovation (Patent View)

•Initially few patents, but with very wide scope

•Quantity of patents grows, but scope narrows

•Patents decline with their related marketplace

0100200300400500600700800

Infancy Adolescence Adulthood Retirement Death

Pat

ents

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Pat

ent S

cope

Innovation

Patents

Scope

12

Spawning of Child Threads

Main Thread - Low Productivity

Main Thread - Highly Productive

Weak threads lead to only a few narrow branches

Strong threads lead to many other threads

13

Thread Life Times

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010LP Records Microphones

Some threads have longer lifetimes than others

14

Thread Transitions

timetime

CourageCourage

Market attractivenessMarket attractivenessTechnology performanceTechnology performance

HopeHope ShockShockDenialDenial

RageRage

ActionActionMourningMourning

PridePride

AcceptanceAcceptance

Internal/Self Steering External Steering

SuccessSuccess

•New threads start prior to peak technical and market performance of previous threads

•Thread transitions are emotional challenges

15

HiTech Commoditization Low Barrier to Entry Low Cost Similar Features-Function Many alternatives Low Margins Automated Manufacture Low Brand Loyalty

16

Cultural Business

17

Head Space Limits Total Buttons in Household Total Hidden Menus in Products Learning Time to Master Interest in Mastery Effort Personal Payback in Investment Competing Uses of Mental Effort

18

Life Style Impact Direct Substitution of Equivalent Changes Family Dynamics Competes with Other Activities Economic Competition Time Competition Viewed as Consumable

19

Business Model Cost of Development Product Life Sunk Cost for First Sale Engineering Risk Barriers to Entry Support Cost

20

Redefined Quality Metrics

*** Meets Customers Expectation? *** Solves a Real Problem or Service Defects Irrelevant or Accepted Fits Reliability Model Market Sets Expectations Not a Technical Concept User Interface Burdens

21

Added Value Check List Novel Functionality Brand Name Recognition Distribution Dominance User Friendly Learning Use Specialized Technology Perceived High Value

22

Example: Home Computer High Sales Volume High Market Penetration Low Margins Packaging Business Model No Barriers to Entry Too Complex to Customize Pure Commodity

23

Example: Home Theater Dominates Listening Room Connection Impact Flawed Source Material High Cost No Technical Barriers Branded, Licensed, or Patented

24

Example: Home Network Installation Complexity Implies High Economic Cost On-site Technical Manager Large Scale Mass Acceptance vs Niche Solution DSL by Analogy

25

Analysis Methods Personal Experience Bias Decade Bias - Cultural Evolution Failure of Introspection Cultural Patterns Dominate Use Real Social-Scientists Technology is a Subset of Culture

26

Summary of Issues The Customer is Part of the Culture Cultural Drift and Patterns Anthropologic Evaluation of

Society Human Limits to Introspection Technology Waves not Linear We Do Not Choose Our Decade

The Right Crystal Ball

An Interdisciplinary Approach