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Understanding Decision-ClimateInteractions on Decadal Scales
James Done, Heather Lazrus, Rebecca MorssErin Towler, Mari Tye
Armin Munévar, Tapash Das
Jeff Czajkowski
Jennifer Hoeting, Josh Hewitt, Casey Schafer
County Visit – Feb 8, 2019
Understanding Decision-ClimateInteractions on Decadal Scales
County Visit – Feb 8, 2019
Understanding Decision-ClimateInteractions on Decadal Scales
County Visit – Feb 8, 2019
Understanding Decision-ClimateInteractions on Decadal Scales
Potential Value of decadal prediction
County Visit – Feb 8, 2019
Adapted from Meehl et al (2009)
Skill from Climate Forcing
Skill from Initial State
Decadal Prediction
5County Visit – Feb 8, 2019
Project Approach
6Agency Meetings - Feb 2019
What is Skillful?
What is Needed?Morss et al. (2018)County Visit – Feb 8, 2019
Temperature is Skillful
Better thana guess
Worse thana guess
Years 1-5
Years 5-9
County Visit – Feb 8, 2019
Precipitation is not skillful . . . yet
Better thana guess
Worse thana guess
Years 1-5
Years 5-9
County Visit – Feb 8, 2019
Why are we here?
To understand the key characteristics of useful decadal climate information for water management decisions.
How?
Get your reactions to a few images of the decadal climate predictions.
County Visit – Feb 8, 2019
Russian River Focus
Source: NOAAhttps://www.climate.gov/news-features/features/who-rules-californias-russian-river
County Visit – Feb 8, 2019
Mean Annual Daily Minimum Temperature
Annual Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies
Observed and Predicted Daily Max Temperature
Wet Day Seasonality
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