Understanding Disruptions from Emerging Demographic Trends

Understanding Disruptions from Emerging Demographic Trends

Presentation to the Michigan Community College Association

July 26, 2012

Kenneth Darga, State DemographerMichigan Department of Technology, Management, and BudgetDargaK@michigan.gov www.michigan.gov/census

Major Topic Areas:• Total Population• Migration Patterns• Age Distribution• Births

• Economic Disruptions

Major Topic Areas:• Total Population• Migration Patterns• Age Distribution• Births

Topic 1: Economic Disruptions

1999.122000.052000.102001.032001.082002.012002.062002.112003.042003.092004.022004.072004.122005.052005.102006.032006.082007.012007.062007.112008.042008.092009.022009.072009.122010.052010.102011.032011.082012.012012.062012.11

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Michigan Share of U.S. Unemployment, Labor Force , and Population (Age 16+)

(12-month moving average of CPS data, 1999-2012)(updated through June, 2012)

UnemploymentPopulation (Age 16+)Labor Force

End of PeriodJanuary 2003

January 2007

January 2011

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey

1999.122000.052000.102001.032001.082002.012002.062002.112003.042003.092004.022004.072004.122005.052005.102006.032006.082007.012007.062007.112008.042008.092009.022009.072009.122010.052010.102011.032011.082012.012012.062012.11

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Michigan Share of U.S. Unemployment, Labor Force , and Population (Age 16+)

(12-month moving average of CPS data, 1999-2012)(updated through June, 2012)

UnemploymentPopulation (Age 16+)Labor Force

End of PeriodJanuary 2003

January 2007

January 2011

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey

1999.122000.052000.102001.032001.082002.012002.062002.112003.042003.092004.022004.072004.122005.052005.102006.032006.082007.012007.062007.112008.042008.092009.022009.072009.122010.052010.102011.032011.082012.012012.062012.11

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Michigan Share of U.S. Unemployment, Labor Force , and Population (Age 16+)

(12-month moving average of CPS data, 1999-2012)(updated through June, 2012)

UnemploymentPopulation (Age 16+)Labor Force

End of PeriodJanuary 2003

January 2007

January 2011

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey

1999.122000.052000.102001.032001.082002.012002.062002.112003.042003.092004.022004.072004.122005.052005.102006.032006.082007.012007.062007.112008.042008.092009.022009.072009.122010.052010.102011.032011.082012.012012.062012.11

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Michigan Share of U.S. Unemployment, Labor Force , and Population (Age 16+)

(12-month moving average of CPS data, 1999-2012)(updated through June, 2012)

UnemploymentPopulation (Age 16+)Labor Force

End of PeriodJanuary 2003

January 2007

January 2011

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey

1999.122000.052000.102001.032001.082002.012002.062002.112003.042003.092004.022004.072004.122005.052005.102006.032006.082007.012007.062007.112008.042008.092009.022009.072009.122010.052010.102011.032011.082012.012012.062012.11

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Michigan Share of U.S. Unemployment, Labor Force , and Population (Age 16+)

(12-month moving average of CPS data, 1999-2012)(updated through June, 2012)

UnemploymentPopulation (Age 16+)Labor Force

End of PeriodJanuary 2003

January 2007

January 2011

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey

1999.122000.052000.102001.032001.082002.012002.062002.112003.042003.092004.022004.072004.122005.052005.102006.032006.082007.012007.062007.112008.042008.092009.022009.072009.122010.052010.102011.032011.082012.012012.062012.11

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Michigan Share of U.S. Unemployment, Labor Force , and Population (Age 16+)

(12-month moving average of CPS data, 1999-2012)(updated through June, 2012)

UnemploymentPopulation (Age 16+)Labor Force

End of PeriodJanuary 2003

January 2007

January 2011

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey

1999.122000.052000.102001.032001.082002.012002.062002.112003.042003.092004.022004.072004.122005.052005.102006.032006.082007.012007.062007.112008.042008.092009.022009.072009.122010.052010.102011.032011.082012.012012.062012.11

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Michigan Share of U.S. Unemployment, Labor Force , and Population (Age 16+)

(12-month moving average of CPS data, 1999-2012)(updated through June, 2012)

UnemploymentPopulation (Age 16+)Labor Force

End of PeriodJanuary 2003

January 2007

January 2011

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey

1999.122000.052000.102001.032001.082002.012002.062002.112003.042003.092004.022004.072004.122005.052005.102006.032006.082007.012007.062007.112008.042008.092009.022009.072009.122010.052010.102011.032011.082012.012012.062012.11

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Michigan Share of U.S. Unemployment, Labor Force , and Population (Age 16+)

(12-month moving average of CPS data, 1999-2012)(updated through June, 2012)

UnemploymentPopulation (Age 16+)Labor Force

End of PeriodJanuary 2003

January 2007

January 2011

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey

2000.122001.042001.082001.122002.042002.082002.122003.042003.082003.122004.042004.082004.122005.042005.082005.122006.042006.082006.122007.042007.082007.122008.042008.082008.122009.042009.082009.122010.042010.082010.122011.042011.082011.122012.042012.082012.12

350

375

400

425

450

475

500

Non-Farm Employment per 1,000 Population:Michigan and the United States, 2000-2012

(12-month moving average of monthly data through June, 2012)

United States

Michigan

End of Period

Jobs

per

100

0 R

esid

ents

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.January, 2003

January, 2007

January, 2011

2000.122001.042001.082001.122002.042002.082002.122003.042003.082003.122004.042004.082004.122005.042005.082005.122006.042006.082006.122007.042007.082007.122008.042008.082008.122009.042009.082009.122010.042010.082010.122011.042011.082011.122012.042012.082012.12

350

375

400

425

450

475

500

Non-Farm Employment per 1,000 Population:Michigan and the United States, 2000-2012

(12-month moving average of monthly data through June, 2012)

United States

Michigan

End of Period

Jobs

per

100

0 R

esid

ents

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.January, 2003

January, 2007

January, 2011

2000.122001.042001.082001.122002.042002.082002.122003.042003.082003.122004.042004.082004.122005.042005.082005.122006.042006.082006.122007.042007.082007.122008.042008.082008.122009.042009.082009.122010.042010.082010.122011.042011.082011.122012.042012.082012.12

350

375

400

425

450

475

500

Non-Farm Employment per 1,000 Population:Michigan and the United States, 2000-2012

(12-month moving average of monthly data through June, 2012)

United States

Michigan

End of Period

Jobs

per

100

0 R

esid

ents

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.January, 2003

January, 2007

January, 2011

2000.122001.042001.082001.122002.042002.082002.122003.042003.082003.122004.042004.082004.122005.042005.082005.122006.042006.082006.122007.042007.082007.122008.042008.082008.122009.042009.082009.122010.042010.082010.122011.042011.082011.122012.042012.082012.12

350

375

400

425

450

475

500

Non-Farm Employment per 1,000 Population:Michigan and the United States, 2000-2012

(12-month moving average of monthly data through June, 2012)

United States

Michigan

End of Period

Jobs

per

100

0 R

esid

ents

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.January, 2003

January, 2007

January, 2011

For more information on Michigan’s One-State Recession:

• Go to www.michigan.gov/census• Look for the link:

Rethinking Michigan’s One-State Recession (paper and video)

Topic 2: Total Population

Demographic Topic #1:Total Population

“There has been an unprecedented decline in Michigan’s population over the past few years.”

Demographic Topic #1:Total Population

“There has been an unprecedented decline in Michigan’s population over the past few years.”

19001905191019151920192519301935194019451950195519601965197019751980198519901995200020052010

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

Estimated Population of Michigan: 1900-2010

Year

Num

ber

of P

eopl

e

19001905191019151920192519301935194019451950195519601965197019751980198519901995200020052010

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

Estimated Population of Michigan: 1900-2010

Year

Num

ber

of P

eopl

e

19001905191019151920192519301935194019451950195519601965197019751980198519901995200020052010

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

Estimated Population of Michigan: 1900-2010

Year

Num

ber

of P

eopl

e

19001905191019151920192519301935194019451950195519601965197019751980198519901995200020052010

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

Estimated Population of Michigan: 1900-2010

Year

Num

ber

of P

eopl

e

19001905191019151920192519301935194019451950195519601965197019751980198519901995200020052010

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

Estimated Population of Michigan: 1900-2010

Year

Num

ber

of P

eopl

e

19001905191019151920192519301935194019451950195519601965197019751980198519901995200020052010

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

Estimated Population of Michigan: 1900-2010

Year

Num

ber

of P

eopl

e

Each recession has involved:• More people leaving• Fewer people arriving from other states and countries• Lower birth rates

An additional factor:• People leaving for military service

Each recession has involved:• More people leaving• Fewer people arriving from other states and countries• Lower birth rates

An additional factor:• People leaving for military service

Demographic Topic #1:Total Population

“Michigan’s population stagnated during the first half of the last decade, and then plummeted in the second half.”

Demographic Topic #1:Total Population

“Michigan’s population stagnated during the first half of the last decade, and then plummeted in the second half.”

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

2

4

6

8

10

12

Estimated Population of Michigan, 2000-2010N

umbe

r of

Res

iden

ts (m

illio

ns)

Source: Michigan Department of Technology, Management, and Budget Provisional Intercensal Population Estimates

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20109.8

9.9

10

10.1

Estimated Population of Michigan, 2000-2010N

umbe

r of

Res

iden

ts (m

illio

ns)

Source: Michigan Department of Technology, Management, and Budget Provisional Intercensal Population Estimates

Demographic Topic #1:Total Population

“Michigan’s share of the nation’s population has decreased every year since 1970, leading to the loss of at least one congressional seat in each of the past four decades.”

197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%

Michigan Population as Percent of U.S.: 1970-2010

Year

Perc

ent o

f U.S

. Pop

ulat

ion

Michigan Department of Information Technology / CSSTPSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Estimated Population by State, 2000-2009, released 12/23/2009 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Counts by State, released 12/21/2010

197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%

Michigan Population as Percent of U.S.: 1970-2010

Year

Perc

ent o

f U.S

. Pop

ulat

ion

Michigan Department of Information Technology / CSSTPSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Estimated Population by State, 2000-2009, released 12/23/2009 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Counts by State, released 12/21/2010

197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%

Michigan Population as Percent of U.S.: 1970-2010

Year

Perc

ent o

f U.S

. Pop

ulat

ion

Michigan Department of Information Technology / CSSTPSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Estimated Population by State, 2000-2009, released 12/23/2009 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Counts by State, released 12/21/2010

197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%

Michigan Population as Percent of U.S.: 1970-2010

Year

Perc

ent o

f U.S

. Pop

ulat

ion

Michigan Department of Information Technology / CSSTPSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Estimated Population by State, 2000-2009, released 12/23/2009 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Counts by State, released 12/21/2010

197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%

Michigan Population as Percent of U.S.: 1970-2010

Year

Perc

ent o

f U.S

. Pop

ulat

ion

Michigan Department of Information Technology / CSSTPSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Estimated Population by State, 2000-2009, released 12/23/2009 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Counts by State, released 12/21/2010

197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%

Michigan Population as Percent of U.S.: 1970-2010

Year

Perc

ent o

f U.S

. Pop

ulat

ion

Michigan Department of Information Technology / CSSTPSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Estimated Population by State, 2000-2009, released 12/23/2009 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Counts by State, released 12/21/2010

197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%

Michigan Population as Percent of U.S.: 1970-2010

Year

Perc

ent o

f U.S

. Pop

ulat

ion

Michigan Department of Information Technology / CSSTPSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Estimated Population by State, 2000-2009, released 12/23/2009 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Counts by State, released 12/21/2010

197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%

Michigan Population as Percent of U.S.: 1970-2010

Year

Perc

ent o

f U.S

. Pop

ulat

ion

Michigan Department of Information Technology / CSSTPSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Estimated Population by State, 2000-2009, released 12/23/2009 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Counts by State, released 12/21/2010

197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%

Michigan Population as Percent of U.S.: 1970-2010

Year

Perc

ent o

f U.S

. Pop

ulat

ion

Michigan Department of Information Technology / CSSTPSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Estimated Population by State, 2000-2009, released 12/23/2009 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Counts by State, released 12/21/2010

Disruptive Factors Affecting Michigan’s Population Share:

1. Westward movement of U.S. population2. Revival of the Sunbelt3. Hispanic immigration into the U.S.

(primarily into West and South)4. Not having a big city that attracts a lot of

migrants from other states5. Impact of recessions.

Disruptive Factors Affecting Michigan’s Population Share:

1. Westward movement of U.S. population2. Revival of the Sunbelt3. Hispanic immigration into the U.S.

(primarily into West and South)4. Not having a big city that attracts a lot of

migrants from other states5. Impact of recessions.

Disruptive Factors Affecting Michigan’s Population Share:

1. Westward movement of U.S. population2. Revival of the Sunbelt3. Hispanic immigration into the U.S.

(primarily into West and South)4. Not having a big city that attracts a lot of

migrants from other states5. Impact of recessions.

Disruptive Factors Affecting Michigan’s Population Share:

1. Westward movement of U.S. population2. Revival of the Sunbelt3. Hispanic immigration into the U.S.

(primarily into West and South)4. Not having a big city that attracts a lot of

migrants from other states5. Impact of recessions.

Disruptive Factors Affecting Michigan’s Population Share:

1. Westward movement of U.S. population2. Revival of the Sunbelt3. Hispanic immigration into the U.S.

(primarily into West and South)4. Not having a big city that attracts a lot of

migrants from other states5. Impact of recessions.

197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%

Michigan Population as Percent of U.S.: 1970-2010

Year

Perc

ent o

f U.S

. Pop

ulat

ion

Michigan Department of Information Technology / CSSTPSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Estimated Population by State, 2000-2009, released 12/23/2009 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Counts by State, released 12/21/2010

Potential Future Disruptions:

1. Movement of population to states with adequate supplies of water?

2. Global warming?3. Global Cooling?4. Global uncertainty?

Potential Future Disruptions:

1. Movement of population to states with adequate supplies of water?

2. Global warming?3. Global Cooling?4. Global uncertainty?

Potential Future Disruptions:

1. Movement of population to states with adequate supplies of water?

2. Global warming?3. Global Cooling?4. Global uncertainty?

Potential Future Disruptions:

1. Movement of population to states with adequate supplies of water?

2. Global warming?3. Global Cooling?4. Global uncertainty?

Topic 3: Migration

Michigan’s Normal Migration Pattern(e.g. 1990’s, late 1980’s)

Category TrendChildren under 18 Not much domestic migration

Age 18-24(college and military age)

Age 25-54(prime labor force)

Age 55+

International Immigration

Michigan’s Normal Migration Pattern(e.g. 1990’s, late 1980’s)

Category TrendChildren under 18 Not much domestic migration

Age 18-24(college and military age)

High net migration to other states

Age 25-54(prime labor force)

Age 55+

International Immigration

v

Michigan’s Normal Migration Pattern(e.g. 1990’s, late 1980’s)

Category TrendChildren under 18 Not much domestic migration

Age 18-24(college and military age)

High net migration to other states

Age 25-54(prime labor force)

Not much net migration to other states

Age 55+

International Immigration

v

Michigan’s Normal Migration Pattern(e.g. 1990’s, late 1980’s)

Category TrendChildren under 18 Not much domestic migration

Age 18-24(college and military age)

High net migration to other states

Age 25-54(prime labor force)

Not much net migration to other states

Age 55+ Considerable net migration to other states

International Immigration

v

Michigan’s Normal Migration Pattern(e.g. 1990’s, late 1980’s)

Category TrendChildren under 18 Not much domestic migration

Age 18-24(college and military age)

High net migration to other states

Age 25-54(prime labor force)

Not much net migration to other states

Age 55+ Considerable net migration to other states

International Immigration Moderate immigration of young adults and their childrenv

Michigan’s Recent Migration Pattern(i.e. 2002-2010)

Category TrendChildren under 18 Not much domestic migration

Age 18-24(college and military age)

Age 25-54(prime labor force)

Age 55+

International Immigration

v

Michigan’s Recent Migration Pattern(i.e. 2002-2010)

Category TrendChildren under 18 Not much domestic migration

Age 18-24(college and military age)

High net migration to other states

Age 25-54(prime labor force)

Age 55+

International Immigration

v

Michigan’s Recent Migration Pattern(i.e. 2002-2010)

Category TrendChildren under 18 Not much domestic migration

Age 18-24(college and military age)

High net migration to other states

Age 25-54(prime labor force)

Considerable net migration to other states

Age 55+

International Immigration

v

Michigan’s Recent Migration Pattern(i.e. 2002-2010)

Category TrendChildren under 18 Not much domestic migration

Age 18-24(college and military age)

High net migration to other states

Age 25-54(prime labor force)

Considerable net migration to other states

Age 55+ Considerable net migration to other states in most years

International Immigration

v

Michigan’s Recent Migration Pattern(i.e. 2002-2010)

Category TrendChildren under 18 Not much domestic migration

Age 18-24(college and military age)

High net migration to other states

Age 25-54(prime labor force)

Considerable net migration to other states

Age 55+ Considerable net migration to other states in most years

International Immigration Less immigration of young adults and their childrenv

Since the end of the One-State Recession:• Fewer people leaving (for most age groups)• More people moving in (for most age groups)• Still losing population through migration, but not as much as before

Exception: ages 60 through 74

Since the end of the One-State Recession:• Fewer people leaving (for most age groups)• More people moving in (for most age groups)• Still losing population through migration, but not as much as before

Exception: ages 60 through 74

1-4

5-17

18-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75+0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Rates of Domestic Out-Migration for Michigan and the United States by Age: 2009-2010

Age

Mig

ratio

n R

ate

1-4

5-17

18-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75+0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Rates of Domestic Out-Migration for Michigan and the United States by Age: 2009-2010

Age

Mig

ratio

n R

ate

1-4

5-17

18-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75+0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Rates of Domestic Out-Migration for Michigan and the United States by Age: 2009-2010

Out from MichiganNational Inter-State Migra-tion

Age

Mig

ratio

n R

ate

1-4

5-17

18-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75+0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Rates of Domestic In-Migration for Michigan and the United States by Age: 2009-2010

Into MichiganNational Inter-State Migra-tion

Age

Mig

ratio

n R

ate

Topic 4: Age Distribution

0-14

75+

60-75

45-59

30-44

15-29

Michigan: 1900

0-14

75+

60-75

45-59

30-44

15-29

Michigan: 1960

0-14

75+

60-75

45-59

30-44

15-29

Michigan: 1960

0-14

75+

60-75

45-59

30-44

15-29

Michigan: 1960

0-14

75+

60-75

45-59

30-44

15-29

Michigan: 2010

0-14

75+

60-75

45-59

30-44

15-29

Michigan: 2010

0-14

75+

60-75

45-59

30-44

15-29

Michigan: 2010

0-14

75+

60-75

45-59

30-44

15-29

Michigan: 2010

0-14

75+

60-75

45-59

30-44

15-29

Michigan: 2010

0-14

75+

60-75

45-59

30-44

15-29

Michigan: 2010

0-14

75+

60-75

45-59

30-44

15-29

United States: 2050

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Ratio of Prime Working-Age Population (Age 20-64)

to Population Over Age 65: United States, 1860-2050

Year

Rat

io (

Age

20-

64 :

65+

)

2010

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Ratio of Prime Working-Age Population (Age 20-64)

to Population Over Age 65: United States, 1860-2050

Year

Rat

io (

Age

20-

64 :

65+

)

2010

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Ratio of Prime Working-Age Population (Age 20-64)

to Population Over Age 65: United States, 1860-2050

Year

Rat

io (

Age

20-

64 :

65+

)

2010

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Ratio of Prime Working-Age Population (Age 20-64)

to Population Over Age 65: United States, 1860-2050

Year

Rat

io (

Age

20-

64 :

65+

)

2010

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Ratio of Prime Working-Age Population (Age 20-64)

to Population Over Age 65: United States, 1860-2050

Year

Rat

io (

Age

20-

64 :

65+

)

2030

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Ratio of Prime Working-Age Population (Age 20-64)

to Population Over Age 65: United States, 1860-2050

Year

Rat

io (

Age

20-

64 :

65+

)

0-14

75+

60-75

45-59

30-44

15-29

United States: 2050

Japan

Italy

China

United States

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.7

Number of People Age 20-64 per Person Age 65+ in 2050

Perspectives on the Retirement Challenge:There should be enough goods and services to go

around (provided that productivity continues to increase at a normal rate and the economy continues to function in a normal manner).

The ratio of workers to retirees will be LOWER when the post-Boomer generation retires (unless fertility and immigration increase beyond replacement level)

Perspectives on the Retirement Challenge:There should be enough goods and services to go

around (provided that productivity continues to increase at a normal rate and the economy continues to function in a normal manner).

The ratio of workers to retirees will be LOWER when the post-Boomer generation retires (unless fertility and immigration increase beyond replacement level)

Before 2012:• The people reaching full retirement age were from the small generations born during the Great Depression and World War II.• Relatively few opportunities for advancement or new hiring were being opened up through retirement.

After 2012:• The number of people reaching full retirement age will gradually build up toward a peak around 2024.

Before 2012:• The people reaching full retirement age were from the small generations born during the Great Depression and World War II.• Relatively few opportunities for advancement or new hiring were being opened up through retirement.

After 2012:• The number of people reaching full retirement age will gradually build up toward a peak around 2024.

Percent of Labor Force Over Age 50 for Selected Occupations: Michigan, 2010• 63% -- Bus Drivers• 55% -- Electronic Equipment Installers• 50% -- Computer Operators• 50% -- Millwrights• 44% -- Industrial Machinery Mechanics• 41% -- Registered Nurses• 40% -- Tool and Die Makers

Note: These statistics are based on a sample and they are subject to wide statistical confidence intervals.

Community Colleges play an important role in national defense:• When a major international conflict occurs, it will become very difficult for cargo ships to travel safely across the oceans.

• America will then face shortages of critical goods manufactured in foreign countries.

• Shortages will be compounded by the need to convert factories from civilian to military production.

• Skilled production workers (and factories) will then be critically important.

Community Colleges play an important role in national defense:• When a major international conflict occurs, it will become very difficult for cargo ships to travel safely across the oceans.

• America will then face shortages of critical goods manufactured in foreign countries.

• Shortages will be compounded by the need to convert factories from civilian to military production.

• Skilled production workers (and factories) will then be critically important.

Community Colleges play an important role in national defense:• When a major international conflict occurs, it will become very difficult for cargo ships to travel safely across the oceans.

• America will then face shortages of critical goods manufactured in foreign countries.

• Shortages will be compounded by the need to convert factories from civilian to military production.

• Skilled production workers (and factories) will then be critically important.

Community Colleges play an important role in national defense:• When a major international conflict occurs, it will become very difficult for cargo ships to travel safely across the oceans.

• America will then face shortages of critical goods manufactured in foreign countries.

• Shortages will be compounded by the need to convert factories from civilian to military production.

• That will be a very dangerous situation if America lacks killed production workers (and factories).

Topic 5: Birth Rates

0-14

75+

60-75

45-59

30-44

15-29

Michigan: 2010

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

Number of Births in Michigan, 1980-2010

Year

Num

ber

of B

irth

s

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

Number of Births in Michigan, 1980-2010

Year

Num

ber

of B

irth

s

Age 18 in 2008

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

Number of Births in Michigan, 1980-2010

Year

Num

ber

of B

irth

s

Age 18 in 2008

Age 18 in 2013(down 12.4%

from peak)

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

Number of Births in Michigan, 1980-2010

Year

Num

ber

of B

irth

s

Age 18 in 2020(down 15.4%

from peak)

Age 18 in 2008

Age 18 in 2013(down 12.4%

from peak)

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

Number of Births in Michigan, 1980-2010

Year

Num

ber

of B

irth

s

Age 18 in 2020(down 15.4%

from peak)

Age 18 in 2008

Age 18 in 2013(down 12.4%

from peak)

Age 18 in 2024(down 16.7%

from peak)

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

Number of Births in Michigan, 1980-2010

Year

Num

ber

of B

irth

s

Age 18 in 2020(down 15.4%

from peak)

Age 18 in 2008

Age 18 in 2013(down 12.4%

from peak)

Age 18 in 2024(down 16.7%

from peak)

Age 18 in 2028(down 25.1%

from peak)

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

Number of Births in Michigan, 1980-2010

Year

Num

ber

of B

irth

s

Age 18 in 2020(down 15.4%

from peak)

Age 18 in 2008

Age 18 in 2013(down 12.4%

from peak)

Age 18 in 2024(down 16.7%

from peak)

Age 18 in 2028(down 25.1%

from peak)

2012

Prospects for a second echo of the Baby Boom:

• Births delayed during past recessions should take place.• The relatively large number of people

born in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s will enter their peak childbearing years.• This is likely to be a weak echo of the

Baby Boom.

Prospects for a second echo of the Baby Boom:

• Births delayed during past recessions should take place.• The relatively large number of people

born in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s will enter their peak childbearing years.• This is likely to be a weak echo of the

Baby Boom.

Prospects for a second echo of the Baby Boom:

• Births delayed during past recessions should take place.• The relatively large number of people

born in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s will enter their peak childbearing years.• This is likely to be a weak echo of the

Baby Boom.

Topic 1: Economic Disruptions

RecessionsThe One-State RecessionUnemployment trendsEmployment trends

1999.122000.052000.102001.032001.082002.012002.062002.112003.042003.092004.022004.072004.122005.052005.102006.032006.082007.012007.062007.112008.042008.092009.022009.072009.122010.052010.102011.032011.082012.012012.062012.11

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Michigan Share of U.S. Unemployment, Labor Force , and Population (Age 16+)

(12-month moving average of CPS data, 1999-2012)(updated through June, 2012)

UnemploymentPopulation (Age 16+)Labor Force

End of PeriodJanuary 2003

January 2007

January 2011

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey

2000.122001.042001.082001.122002.042002.082002.122003.042003.082003.122004.042004.082004.122005.042005.082005.122006.042006.082006.122007.042007.082007.122008.042008.082008.122009.042009.082009.122010.042010.082010.122011.042011.082011.122012.042012.082012.12

350

375

400

425

450

475

500

Non-Farm Employment per 1,000 Population:Michigan and the United States, 2000-2012

(12-month moving average of monthly data through June, 2012)

United States

Michigan

End of Period

Jobs

per

100

0 R

esid

ents

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.January, 2003

January, 2007

January, 2011

Topic 2: Total Population

Historical fluctuations in growth How bad was the past decade? Long-term trend of declining

population share Disruptive factors (past and

future)

19001905191019151920192519301935194019451950195519601965197019751980198519901995200020052010

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

Estimated Population of Michigan: 1900-2010

Year

Num

ber

of P

eopl

e

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

2

4

6

8

10

12

Estimated Population of Michigan, 2000-2010N

umbe

r of

Res

iden

ts (m

illio

ns)

Source: Michigan Department of Technology, Management, and Budget Provisional Intercensal Population Estimates

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20109.8

9.9

10

10.1

Estimated Population of Michigan, 2000-2010N

umbe

r of

Res

iden

ts (m

illio

ns)

Source: Michigan Department of Technology, Management, and Budget Provisional Intercensal Population Estimates

197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%

Michigan Population as Percent of U.S.: 1970-2010

Year

Perc

ent o

f U.S

. Pop

ulat

ion

Michigan Department of Information Technology / CSSTPSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Estimated Population by State, 2000-2009, released 12/23/2009 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Counts by State, released 12/21/2010

Disruptive Factors Affecting Michigan’s Population Share:

1. Westward movement of U.S. population2. Revival of the Sunbelt3. Hispanic immigration into the U.S.

(primarily into West and South)4. Not having a big city that attracts a lot of

migrants from other states5. Impact of recessions.

Topic 3: Migration

Normal pattern vs. recent pattern for each age group

High migration rates for young people are a national pattern

Michigan’s problem is low in-migration rather than high out-migration

Michigan’s Normal Migration Pattern(e.g. 1990’s, late 1980’s)

Category TrendChildren under 18 Not much domestic migration

Age 18-24(college and military age)

High net migration to other states

Age 25-54(prime labor force)

Not much net migration to other states

Age 55+ Considerable net migration to other states

International Immigration Moderate immigration of young adults and their childrenv

Michigan’s Recent Migration Pattern(i.e. 2002-2010)

Category TrendChildren under 18 Not much domestic migration

Age 18-24(college and military age)

High net migration to other states

Age 25-54(prime labor force)

Considerable net migration to other states

Age 55+ Considerable net migration to other states in most years

International Immigration Less immigration of young adults and their childrenv

1-4

5-17

18-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75+0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Rates of Domestic Out-Migration for Michigan and the United States by Age: 2009-2010

Out from MichiganNational Inter-State Migra-tion

Age

Mig

ratio

n R

ate

1-4

5-17

18-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75+0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Rates of Domestic In-Migration for Michigan and the United States by Age: 2009-2010

Into MichiganNational Inter-State Migra-tion

Age

Mig

ratio

n R

ate

Topic 4: Age Distribution (pt.1)

Historical population pyramids The challenge of financing retirement as

the ratio of workers to retirees decreasesIt is not the size of the older generation that matters, but how

many children, grandchildren, and immigrants have come afterwards.

Other countries with lower birthrates and fewer immigrants will have a much more serious retirement challenge than the U.S.

The ratio of workers to retirees is not projected to improve after the Baby Boom generation passes away.

We should still have enough food, goods, and services to go around.

0-14

75+

60-75

45-59

30-44

15-29

Michigan: 1900

0-14

75+

60-75

45-59

30-44

15-29

Michigan: 1960

0-14

75+

60-75

45-59

30-44

15-29

Michigan: 2010

0-14

75+

60-75

45-59

30-44

15-29

United States: 2050

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Ratio of Prime Working-Age Population (Age 20-64)

to Population Over Age 65: United States, 1860-2050

Year

Rat

io (

Age

20-

64 :

65+

)

Japan

Italy

China

United States

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.7

Number of People Age 20-64 per Person Age 65+ in 2050

Topic 4: Age Distribution (pt.2)

Impact of retirements on future employment opportunities

National defense implications of training workers for skilled production occupations

Percent of Labor Force Over Age 50 for Selected Occupations: Michigan, 2010• 63% -- Bus Drivers• 55% -- Electronic Equipment Installers• 50% -- Computer Operators• 50% -- Millwrights• 44% -- Industrial Machinery Mechanics• 41% -- Registered Nurses• 40% -- Tool and Die Makers

Note: These statistics are based on a sample and they are subject to wide statistical confidence intervals.

Community Colleges play an important role in national defense:• When a major international conflict occurs, it will become very difficult for cargo ships to travel safely across the oceans.

• America will then face shortages of critical goods manufactured in foreign countries.

• Shortages will be compounded by the need to convert factories from civilian to military production.

• That will be a very dangerous situation if America lacks killed production workers (and factories).

Topic 5: Birth Rates

Implications of declining birth rates for future enrollment

Prospects for a weak second echo of the Baby Boom

Percent of Labor Force Over Age 50 for Selected Occupations: Michigan, 2010• 63% -- Bus Drivers• 55% -- Electronic Equipment Installers• 50% -- Computer Operators• 50% -- Millwrights• 44% -- Industrial Machinery Mechanics• 41% -- Registered Nurses• 40% -- Tool and Die Makers

Note: These statistics are based on a sample and they are subject to wide statistical confidence intervals.

Community Colleges play an important role in national defense:• When a major international conflict occurs, it will become very difficult for cargo ships to travel safely across the oceans.

• America will then face shortages of critical goods manufactured in foreign countries.

• Shortages will be compounded by the need to convert factories from civilian to military production.

• That will be a very dangerous situation if America lacks killed production workers (and factories).

Access to Data

www.michigan.gov/census

www.census.gov

To sign up for listserv: Send email to DargaK@michigan.gov

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Percentage of Population with Associates Degree by Age: Michigan and the U.S., 2010

MichiganUnited States

Age Group

Perc

ent w

ith D

egre

e

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Percentage of Population with Associates Degree by Age: Michigan and the U.S., 2010

MichiganUnited States

Age Group

Perc

ent w

ith D

egre

e

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Percentage of Population with Bachelor's Degree or Higher by Age: Michigan and the U.S., 2010

MichiganUnited States

Age Group

Perc

ent w

ith D

egre

e

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

Percentage of Population with Some College but No Degree by Age: Michigan and the U.S., 2010

MichiganUnited States

Age Group

Perc

ent w

ith D

egre

e