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VA/NC High Speed Rail: Benefits and Challenges
January 9, 2012
Trip Pollard
Virginia Rail Policy Institute
HSR Benefits
• Multiple benefits
• Many assumptions and variables (e.g. speed, ridership, route, vehicle type)
• Get it right and get it going to maximize benefits
Market DemandAmtrak FY11 highest ridership ever
50% increase in VA in past 5 years
VRE grew 12% FY10-11
New services exceed expectations
Source: DRPT
Market Demand
Top 3 state supported passenger rail services highest % ridership increase in US in FY11 all in NC and VA-Piedmont (40.2%)-DC-Lynchburg (28.5%)-DC-Newport News (19.1%)
Source: DRPT
Population Growth
• Population growth in SE much faster than US; projected to continue rapid increase
Many areas with the highest driving rates per capita are in the SEHSR corridor (Raleigh, Charlotte, Fredericksburg in top 10 in US)
Congestion among worst in U.S.
Annual time and fuel costs hurt individuals and businesses
Defense – Hampton Roads/DC
Job Access/Reduced
Congestion Costs
Airport Delay
• Air travel and delay within the corridor increased rapidly
• Atlanta 4th worst of 30 major airports in US in 2009, 77% on time departure; Charlotte 82%
Source: Brookings Institute 2009
Costs to Taxpayers; Limits; Need Choices
Market/Demographic Changes- Aging
Population
© GRTC Transit System
Economic Benefits: Jobs and Competitiveness
• Building/upgrading SEHSR corridor to 90-110 mph estimated create or sustain 228,000 jobs
• Attract and retain businesses and employees
• Business leaders “are recognizing that quality of life directly affects economic prosperity”
• Quality of life key selling point
Economic Benefits- Development, Revitalization,
TOD
Source: City of Richmond and Dover, Kohl & Partners
Source: City of Richmond and Dover, Kohl & Partners
Source: City of Richmond and Dover, Kohl & Partners
Energy Benefits
• Over 5 billion gallons of motor fuels were consumed in VA and 5.4 billion in NC in 2010
• Economic (business and individual cost, trade deficit), environmental, national security issue
• “Overreliance on oil in the transportation sector is the Achilles heel of our national security.”– Military Advisory Board
Energy Benefits
• Auto 43% more and air 27% more BTUs per passenger mile than intercity rail
Automobile Airplane IntercityRail0
5001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000
BTUs Per Passenger Mile (2008)
Health/Environmental Benefits
• Vehicle pollution can cause pain when inhaling, shortness of breath, coughing, headaches, asthma attacks
• Children and the elderly most vulnerable
• Average 112 violations ozone health standards/yr in VA 1990-2010 (over 80 in 2010; over 60 in 2011)
Adapted from CCAP/CNT 2006
Energy and Emissions Benefits
• Petersburg to DC estimated to eliminate 13 million auto trips, save 467 million gallons of fuel, 2.9 million tons CO2 emissions, and 13,500 tons NOx over 30 years
Environmental Benefits
• Other estimates even more ambitious. CCAP and CNT: Full buildout SEHSR could divert 18% of air travel in corridor, eliminate over 392 million tons of CO2 emissions annually, and over 180 million tons annually from autos.
• Land Development:– Southeast has seen most acres developed in
US– Development increase much faster than
population– HSR/local transit can spur mixed use
communities, TOD
Reduced Sprawl
© Charles Shoffner
SEHSR Potential Costs
• Land use (direct and indirect)
• Energy• Emissions• Water and
wetlands
Keys to Maximize Benefits
• Connections– SE – Network not segments– Extension/link NE Corridor
Keys to Maximize Benefits
• Transit, light rail, bike/ped network and connections to stations
• Central station location• Land use around station
©Cliffords Photography
Keys to Maximize Benefits
• Electrification (and source), alternative fuels, more efficient diesel engines
Getting There?
• Attacks on HSR• Analysis/planning• Funding HSR and
other alternatives (federal, state, regional, local)
• Land use (esp. local but key state role)
• Focus on benefitsSource: DRPT
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