Vehicle to Grid Power Analysis Seminar NREL, Washington, DC 28 September 2005 Willett Kempton...

Vehicle to Grid PowerAnalysis SeminarNREL, Washington, DC

28 September 2005

Willett KemptonUniversity of Delaware

Four Big Problems

Global climate change. Evidence in the past two years suggest far more risk than before.

Peak oil production; demand from China and India soaring; $200B/year in Middle East wars.

US economy extraordinarily vulnerable to external supply and distant politics.

Renewable energy plentiful and now cheap, limited by intermittent supply.

An Unexpected Synergy

It may be easier to solve all of these problems at once than one at a time.

Vehicle to Grid power (“V2G”) as a bridging technology.

Vehicle to Grid

Arrows indicate direction of power flow

V2G Basic Math

Average car driven 1 hour/day --> time parked is 23 hours/day

Daily average travel: 32 miles

Practical power draw from car: 10 - 20 kW

US power generation=811 GW; load=417 GW

US 191 million cars x 15 kW = 2,865 GW

How Much Power?

Denmark UK USA

Avg. Electric Load (GW) 3.6 40 417

Light vehicles (106) 1.9 28.5 191

Vehicle GW (if electric drive @ 15 kW each)

29 427 2,865

How Much Power?

Denmark UK USA

Avg. Electric Load (GW) 3.6 40 417

Light vehicles (106) 1.9 28.5 191

Vehicle GW (if electric drive @ 15 kW each)

29 427 2,865

... power in cars >> generation or load

Which vehicles will be available first?

Fuel cell?

Plug-in hybrid?

Battery?

(all work for V2G, distinct advantages for each)

Fuel Cell Vehicle: Honda FCX

NRC Review of H2

"Since using hydrogen as a transportation fuel would necessitate several significant breakthroughs, other alternatives to achieve the program goals should be explored and additional research supported if such alternatives show comparable prospects for success. The committee suggests that high-energy batteries for pure battery electric vehicles might be such an alternative. "

From: Executive Summary, “Review of the Research Program of the FreedomCAR and Fuel Partnership”, National Research Council, draft, August 2005, page ES-5 (www.nap.edu/execsumm_pdf/11406.pdf)

Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle: DaimlerChrysler Sprinter

Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle: DaimlerChrysler Sprinter

Revolution in Battery Technology

Today’s automotive starter batteries: Lead-acid

RAV4 EV (and Toyota Prius hybrid battery): Nickel Metal-hydride

New batteries based on Lithium, Li-ion or Li-polymer: 5x lighter for same energy!

These advances make possible large battery storage for vehicles.

Which atom would you schlep?

Which atom would you schlep?

Pb=207.2Ni=58.9Li=6.9

So, what can you do with these batteries?

Venturi Fetish58 kWh Li-ion180 kW400 km range

standard:WiMax 802.162 Intel chipsOracle 10GiPodV2G

0-100 km/h in 4.5 sec, max 170 km/h

19 Sep 05 press release: http://www.internetnews.com/ent-news/article.php/3549956

Mitsubishi Colt platform

In-wheel motor

13 kWh Li-ion, 2 x 20kW in-wheel motors;developing 50 kW in-wheel motor

Toyota Scion conversion by AC Propulsion

“We plan to manufacture safety-certified electric vehicle conversions and sell them to retail and fleet customers. The conversions will be based on the Scion xA and xB, the new sport compact vehicles built by Toyota...

Toyota Scion conversion by AC Propulsion

“We plan to manufacture safety-certified electric vehicle conversions and sell them to retail and fleet customers. The conversions will be based on the Scion xA and xB, the new sport compact vehicles built by Toyota...

“We plan two models, a base model, and a premium with a larger battery. The base model will outperform the RAV4 EV and is expected to sell for about the same price.”

But, don’t we need to wait for the big

OEMs?

OEM Automobile Logic•Automobile as receiver of petroleum;

isolated from other energy systems

•Engine as the primary value added, owned by OEM (other components commodity items, from suppliers)

•Expertise in combustion, mechanical engineering, low-cost production

•No expertise or IP in electrochemistry, power electronics, power markets

•Consumer’s performance space inviolable

BEV and PHEV Logic

•Non-fossil carriers essential to the future

•Hydrogen unlikely, especially in the near term, thus electricity primary carrier

•CO2 displacement very large, especially with hydro or wind

•Electricity as carrier leads to V2G logic...

V2G Logic•Cars: A power resource too large to

ignore

•V2G makes electric power capacity cheap, but electric energy is still expensive

•Today, market value for grid management

•Future, enable very large renewable energy

•Optimize design for both transport and electric system -- OEMs will not do this

Example logical disconnect: The Plug•OEM: stay at 110 VAC, 2 kW is plenty for

overnight charging, use off-the-shelf power components, no electrician needed (save $500), anyway where’s the V2G rate schedule?

•V2G: add 15kW connection, get fast charge, sell regulation services (add revenue of $3,000/year), start with regional markets.

Example logical disconnect: The Plug•OEM: stay at 110 VAC, 2 kW is plenty for

overnight charging, use off-the-shelf power components, no electrician needed (save $500), anyway where’s the V2G rate schedule?

•V2G: add 15kW connection, get fast charge, sell regulation services (add revenue of $3,000/year), start with regional markets.

The OEMs don’t get it. They aren’t going to get it until someone else puts the pieces together

and shows how it works.

Better to demonstrate the

V2G business model without

OEMs

Better to demonstrate the

V2G business model without

OEMs•V2G revenues mean we can afford to make cars that costs $10K too much

•Less capitalized manufacturing process allows design refinements as we understand the businesses

•The critical cost barriers are components, not low-cost assembly

Which power markets?

Not bulk power, because costs > revenue

Ideal to start selling mostly power (capacity) not so much energy ... ancillary services (A/S)

A/S: Regulation, spinning reserves, reactive power, etc ~ $10B/year in US

Vehicle can run regulation while parked and charging (next slides)

Regulation from hydro

Regulation from V2G (drive, charge & A/S)

A sequence of markets

High value regulation great for buying down initially high vehicle cost

About 1 - 3% of the vehicle fleet saturates regulation, up to perhaps 4-5% saturates other A/S, then start selling peak power

As V2G costs drop and A/S saturates, start selling storage for intermittent renewables (8-38% of fleet enables 50% wind!)

So, let’s look at some business models...

PJM A/S Regulation: Single Vehicles

Average DPL costs for Ancillary Service regulation: $6,800,000/year ($6.8M)

Average PJM regulation contract price in 2003 was $38.33 $/MW-h

Single vehicle, 15 kW, available 18 h/d, A/S reg -> $3777 revenue/year

PJM contracts 1 MW, so, need an aggregator (e.g., Delmarva, Verizon Cellular or ...)

A/S Regulation: Fleet operator as IPP

100 vehicles, parked 18h/d (16 h * 5 days + 24 h * 2 days), 80% available, each 20 kW A/S regulation services at $38/MW-h.

Single connection point, single meter, 2 MW peak “generator” --> higher ISO comfort

Revenue: 100*18h*365d*.8*.02MW*$38= $400,000/year revenue from fleet ($4,000/car/year)

Regional assembly

Buy gasoline vehicle, modify to electric with V2G

10 lifts in a 10,000-15,000 ft2 warehouse, 15-20 employees, produce 250 cars/year, 2 shifts=500

Vehicle conversion local, battery assembly local, cars sourced from OEM, drive sourced from AC Propulsion, national/local sourcing of: gearbox, wiring harness, non-drive electronics, metal parts.

Production could start in 12 - 18 months!

Assembler Finances

Engineer for each platform: Cost about $1 - $2M for engineering and testing. Add $2M for NTSA crash tests, manufacturer certification.

Set up shop for $US 0.4 to 1.0 million; working capital about $3 m

Assembler cost breakpoints at 500, 2,000 vehicles/year; OEM cost breaks at 30,000 - 100,000/year

Vehicle cost at 250/year perhaps $45k; an argument for public subsidy

Transition Strategy

Start simple: Battery now, e-hybrid later

Small fleets: 100 car V2G fleet = 1 MW; demonstrate V2G business models

Production in several regions, develop technology, drive down component costs

Develop standards for V2G (e.g. response time, metering, at least 10 kW/car, drawdown limits, etc)

THEN we need the OEMs, low-cost production at > 50,000 cars/year

How to launch a V2G industry?

Well under $20 M gets several fleets going

OR, a couple of state PUCs could allow/ratebase/require their IOUs to buy 100 vehicle size V2G fleets

OR, a municipal government or urban peak power user could provide free CBD parking & free charge in exchange for V2G

OR, a state legislature could use a small gasoline, electric, or car registration fee to buy down initial costs of V2G vehicles

Vision

One-half vehicle fleet is electric drive: battery plus plug-in hybrid

One-half of electric energy from wind, eventually other renewables

Climate change is greatly slowed down; US can survive (a while) without foreign oil

CO2-free electricity, high-penetration intermittent renewables, and CO2-free transportation: an unexpected and dramatic synergy