Wales’s Low/Zero Carbon Hub Jofeh 26 April 2012.… · Low/Zero Carbon Hub The strategic aim of...

Wales’s Low/Zero Carbon Hub

Chris Jofeh

26th April 2012

Structure of this talk • UK carbon reduction pathways to 2050

• The work of Wales’s Low/Zero Carbon Hub

• Carbon emissions - progress in Wales

• NHS England carbon trajectory

• NHS Wales carbon trajectory

• Some thoughts about the challenges of the Welsh NHS estate

Cardiff Bay in 1955

UK pathways to 2050

National target – 80% reduction in greenhouse gas

emissions by 2050 (1990 baseline)

UK – where and when will carbon savings occur?

DECC 2050 pathways

DECC 2050 pathways – one scenario

Broad range of measures to

reduce demand

Emphasis on carbon capture and

storage; bio energy; and some

nuclear

DECC 2050 pathways – implications - area

DECC 2050 pathways – carbon capture and storage; bio energy – land and sea areas

The work of Wales’s Low/Zero

Carbon Hub

Low/Zero Carbon Hub

The strategic aim of the hub is to:

‘act as a dissemination mechanism to stakeholders and a source of advice to

Welsh Ministers over activities and actions needed to achieve the aspiration of

zero carbon new build and the contribution to be made by buildings that will

help to deliver the 3% annual target to cut greenhouse gas emissions’

http://www.cewales.org.uk/zero-low-carbon-hub/

The Strategy

1. Residential New

Build

2. Residential Existing

Buildings

3. Non Domestic

Buildings

4. Sustainable Living

5. Skills and Training

• Support implementation of Building

Regulations in Wales

• Raise awareness amongst stakeholders

• Disseminate best practice

• Work with existing knowledge

networks and organisations

• Identify, propose and promote

practical actions

• Identify gaps in current policies

• Advise Welsh Ministers

Strategic Actions Workstreams

Low/Zero Carbon Hub

Steering group –

workstream leaders

Colin King, Residential New Build

Nick Tune, Residential Existing Buildings

Gordon Brown, Non Domestic Buildings

Chris Tweed, Sustainable Living

Wyn Prichard/ Chris Hughes, Skills and Training

Residential New Build

Issues:

Devolved Building Regs: Part L

Code for Sustainable Homes

Passivhaus

Fabric first approach

Planning

Linking energy efficiency and property value

Projects/ Events:

Build Regs 2013: Part L workshops WG

Part L 2015 breakfast meetings

Planning review research

Conferences (RSAW/ RICS/ CIH)

Residential Existing Build

Issues: Retrofit Arbed Phases 1 & 2 Green Deal Renewable Heat incentive Feed in tariffs Skills Waste from refurbishments Fabric energy efficiency Air quality Water efficiency Quality standards Warrantees Linking energy efficiency and property value

Projects/events:

RHI/FIT breakfast meetings

Desk study – building consumption

CCC Summit

Green mortgages

Water efficiency breakfast

Arbed 2 liaison

Existing Homes Alliance

Sustainable traditional buildings alliance

Code for Retrofit

Quality/warrantee study

Insulation/ ventilation/damp study

Ecobuild Centre

Skills & Training

Issues:

Cut the Carbon

BEST & WEST

Designing out Waste

Projects/ Events: Training courses database - Cardiff Uni

Site Carbon Manager training

CSkills & BRE skills review

Note: Green Deal Skills Alliance

(leadership training for Influencing Change)

Prof Services Employers Group

Cynnal Cymru business breakfast

Non Domestic

Issues:

Building consumption

EPCs and DECs

Handovers and soft landings

Integrated teams and

collaboration

BREEAM 2011

Linking energy efficiency

and property value

Projects/ events: Fforwm BREEAM evening

seminars

Conferences: Carbon Trust,

Welsh Healthcare Estates

Newport Construction Forum

Local Authority collaborative

works group

A Welsh DEC study

CEW awards

Sustainable Living

Issues: Behaviour change – post occupancy

Use of systems/ Smart meters etc

Energy awareness

Water awareness (embodied energy)

Projects & Events: Data collection research review

lifestyle & behaviour

WG Behavioural Change

Programme

Aim:

– to train contractors up to a level where they are competent in delivering

high energy efficient and sustainable homes.

– course outline currently being developed by BRE & CSkills.

Future:

– each construction site will have a SCM to ensure buildings are

constructed to meet the exacting standards

– a site with a SCM will receive two credits within BREEAM

Site Carbon Manager Trial

• A variation on the standard mortgage where energy costs and

projects savings are accounted for as part of a dwelling’s

operating costs.

• The lower operating costs means lenders can provide a higher

level of financing

• Benefit to homeowners who reduce their impacts on the

environment and minimize household energy use

Green Mortgages

Aim:

– Create a database of certified sustainable material in Wales

Allowing users to:

– identify Welsh suppliers of sustainable materials by location

– create a virtual supply chain through all stages of the production process

– gain access certification to show compliance

Similar project completed for Cornwall County Council

Sustainable Materials in Wales Database

The use of social

networking to deliver

operational

improvements in large

organizations

Low/Zero Carbon Hub

Policy advice to WG:

1. Creating the conditions for very large scale retrofit

2. How to make the Green Deal work in Wales

3. Community scale renewable energy projects

4. Planning and Building Regulations

Carbon emissions – progress in

Wales

Wales target – 3% annual reduction in greenhouse gas

emissions

NHS England carbon trajectory

NHS England carbon reduction strategy

Travel

18%

Buildings

22%

22%

9%

5% 5% 4%

Procurement

60%

Pharmaceuticals

Medical Instruments equipment

Business services

Paper products

NHS Freight transport

Other manufactured products

Fuels/chemicals/gases

Food and Catering

NHS England: breakdown of 20 MT CO2 footprint

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

NH

S E

ng

lan

d a

nn

ua

l e

mis

sio

ns

MtC

O2e

Year

NHS England CO2 scenario model

model of care

other procurement reduction

med-tech reduction

pharma reduction

renewables

travel emissions

Estate churn

LZCT buildings

baseline emissions

2020 reduction

target

Analytical baseline for carbon reduction strategy

NHS Wales carbon trajectory

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

NH

S E

ng

lan

d a

nn

ua

l e

mis

sio

ns

MtC

O2e

Year

NHS England CO2 emissions

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

NH

S E

ng

lan

d a

nn

ua

l e

mis

sio

ns

MtC

O2e

Year

NHS England CO2 emissions

NHS Wales CO2 emissions

Some thoughts about the challenges

of the Welsh NHS estate

Performance over 10 year period

Many eras of building

Pre 1948

1955-1964

1965-1974

1975-1984

1985-1994

1995 to

present

All-Wales age profile 2010/11

Artificial organs

Chronic illness

Drug development

Genetics

Home diagnostics

Imaging

Infection control

Mental health

Pandemic risk

Proton beam therapy

Public health

Robotics

Stem cells

Surgical techniques

The elderly

The intelligent patient

Therapeutic environments

Changing models of care

Wales – Total Annual Building Energy Costs

x 5 = 1,000,000 tonnes

WG

approval

of SOC

Appoint

advisers

Appoint

design

consultants

Carry out options

appraisal and

identify preferred

option

Develop

preferred option

to RIBA stage

C

Supply

chain VE &

bids

Select supply

chain partner

Novate

design

consultants

Complete

OBC

Board/Trust

approval of

OBC

WG

approval of

OBC

Appoint

supply chain

partner

Develop full business case (FBC)

Design and preconstruction

activities to RIBA stage H

Agree

target

price

Board/Trust

approval of

FBC

WG

approval of

FBC

Design completion and construction Operational

commissioning

Project

closure

DESIGNED FOR Life: BUILDING FOR Wales 2

Regional Frameworks – Full Business Case Process

People:

Environmental awareness & expectations

Lifestyles

Demographics

Energy Infrastructure:

Electricity demand

Energy Security

Decarbonised ‘green’ grid

Economics:

Balance of payments

Energy and water prices

Carbon taxation

Drivers of change

Legislation:

Climate Change Act 2008

Energy Act 2011

Towards ‘zero carbon’ buildings

Information technology:

Remote working

Cloud computing

Social networks

Climate change:

Temperature & rainfall

Biodiversity and ecosystem health

Disease

What can change achieve? Enhanced

Wellbeing

Brand

Value

Business

Resilience

Staff and patients:

Enhanced comfort / health / productivity

Improved staff attraction /retention

Improved healthcare outcomes

Climate change:

Mitigation – reduced CO2 emissions

Adaptation – adaptive capacity

Asset rating:

Energy security

Improved building performance

Enhanced LEED / BREEAM

Cost base:

Improved space efficiency

Reduced operational costs

Wales Audit Office survey of NHS boards in Wales

Other priorities for capital investment

How can your buildings work harder

to support your business?

How can your buildings do more to

help achieve the goals of the NHS in

Wales?

Improved healthcare outcomes • Better environments for staff and patients

• More therapeutic environments

• More efficient layouts

Increased throughput of patients

Reduced unnecessary movement by staff and patients.

Reduced unnecessary movement of items and materials

Multi-use

Future adaptability

• Reduced building operating & maintenance costs

• Reduced building footprints

How can your buildings do more to support the goals of the NHS in Wales?

• Improvement/innovation

• Legislative compliance

• Litigation/insurance

• Maintenance backlog

• Operating costs

• Patient experience

• Profitability

• QIPP

• Staff attraction & retention

• Staff time

• Tax

• Turnaround times

• Waste reduction

Other healthcare pressures &

ambitions

• Balance sheet – asset value

• Brand, image and reputation

• Carbon reduction & taxation

• Cash flow

• Certification –DEC, BREEAM etc

• Climate change resilience

• Demand & capacity

• Development costs and risks

• Disposals & acquisitions

• Energy & water consumption

• Energy security

• Future legislation risks

1. Which buildings on your

estate offer the best

opportunities to deliver

value enhancement through

retrofit?

2. What is the optimum

delivery strategy to ensure

that target performance is

realised?

Understand

Main Drivers

Identify Estate

Opportunities

Confirm &

Develop

Opportunities

Refine Retrofit

Strategies

Integrated

Design &

Delivery

Performance

Monitoring &

Enhancement

A possible approach to estate-wide buildings retrofit

Understand

Main Drivers

Identify Estate

Opportunities

Confirm &

Develop

Opportunities

Refine Retrofit

Strategies

Integrated

Design &

Delivery

Performance

Monitoring &

Enhancement

A possible approach to estate-wide buildings retrofit

1 2 3

1. Which buildings on the estate might be good candidates for

an upgrade?

2. For each building identified at stage1 – is it really a good

candidate, and approximately what should be done at what

cost?

3. For each building confirmed at stage 2 – precisely what

should be done to the building, and what will it cost?

• Pre-filter

• Assess potential for improvement in commercial and

service performance

• Assess physical potential for improvement

• Assess potential for risk reduction/elimination

(e.g. obsolescence, regulatory, or climate)

• Categorize buildings

Which buildings on the estate might be

good candidates for an upgrade?

Prefilter Demand and capacity review

• Is there / could there be sizeable vacant space?

• What is the holding strategy?

• Excellent/dreadful

Estate / Portfolio Analysis

Commercial Suitability

Financial Improvability • Current vs. potential income

• Current vs. potential cost of occupancy

• Space efficiency

• Asset productivity & deployment

Service Provision • What services can be moved offsite?

• Potential to offer new services

• Potential to improve space utilisation

• Potential for multi-use

• What demand for upgraded space does the

service strategy require?

Estate / Portfolio Analysis

Improvability – Technical Factors Building condition / fitness for purpose/ derogations

• Adjacencies

• Age of structure / fit-out / services

• Comfort and control of comfort

• Energy, water & waste performance

• Functional content & space standards

• Interior appearance

• Internal and external views

• Patient access to outdoors

• Patient bath / toilet / other facilities

• Patient privacy & dignity

• Security

• Staff facilities for work & relaxation

• Wayfinding & signposting

Estate Analysis

Improvability – Risk Reduction Obsolescence and Regulatory Risk

• Supply/demand

• Accelerated deterioration: escalation of

capital investment

• Brand/image

• Energy performance

• Infection control

• Ability to meet increased carbon emission

performance standards

• DDA

• CRC

• HTMs

Estate / Portfolio Analysis

Estate Optimization • Identify retrofit opportunities to

deliver performance enhancement

across an estate

• Based on categorisation of buildings

Co

mm

ercia

l S

uit

ab

ilit

y

Technical Improvability

Retrofit Quick

Wins

Exemplar Refurb

Market Refurb Defer

Estate Analysis

Understand

Main Drivers

Identify Estate

Opportunities

Confirm &

Develop

Opportunities

Refine Retrofit

Strategies

Integrated

Design &

Delivery

Performance

Monitoring &

Enhancement

A possible approach to estate-wide buildings retrofit

1. Which buildings on the estate might be good candidates for

an upgrade?

2. For each building identified at stage1 – is it really a good

candidate, and approximately what should be done at what

cost?

3. For each building confirmed at stage 2 – precisely what

should be done to the building, and what will it cost?

1 2 3

WG

approval

of SOC

Appoint

advisers

Appoint

design

consultants

Carry out options

appraisal and

identify preferred

option

Develop

preferred option

to RIBA stage

C

Supply

chain VE &

bids

Select supply

chain partner

Novate

design

consultants

Complete

OBC

Board/Trust

approval of

OBC

WG

approval of

OBC

Appoint

supply chain

partner

Develop full business case (FBC)

Design and preconstruction

activities to RIBA stage H

Agree

target

price

Board/Trust

approval of

FBC

WG

approval of

FBC

Design completion and construction Operational

commissioning

Project

closure

DESIGNED FOR Life: BUILDING FOR Wales 2

Regional Frameworks – Full Business Case Process

Identify Estate Opportunities

Confirm & Develop Opportunities

Refine Retrofit Strategies

Performance

Monitoring &

Enhancement

Thank you.

chris.jofeh@arup.com