Weather and Emergencies Preparation, Response, Recovery Northwest Response Forum Dryden, Ontario...

Weather and EmergenciesPreparation, Response,

Recovery

Northwest Response ForumDryden, Ontario

Geoff CoulsonWarning Preparedness MeteorologistApril 6, 2011

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Contents

• Severe Weather Watch/Warning Program

• Warning Preparedness Meteorologist (WPM) Program

• Risk Communication

• Staying on Top of the Weather

• Future Weather Trends

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Ontario Storm Prediction Centre - Toronto

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Special Weather Statements

• Unusual weather (thunderstorms in January)

• Large areas of dense fog

• Approaching storm system still a few days away

• Weather which will approach but not meet weather warning criteria

• Summary of a recent weather system (i.e. snow amounts, tornado locations etc…)

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Weather Watch vs. Weather Warning

• Weather Watch means there is the potential for severe weather

--- Be Alert

• Weather Warning means that severe weather will soon occur or is occurring

--- Take Action

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Scale of a Summer Storm

One storm covering part of a countyOne storm covering part of a county

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Scale of a Winter Storm

LX

Snow

HeavySnow

RainShowers

Freezing Rain

One storm covering thousands of square kilometres

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Short-Fuse vs. Longer Lead Time

Short-Fuse…perhaps minutes…

Longer lead time…perhaps hours

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Warning Preparedness Meteorologist (WPM) Program

• WPM Motto – Take full credit when the forecast is right– Blame Weather Centre when the forecast is

wrong

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WPM’s – Environment Canada’s Face to Clients

Geoff Coulson Peter Kimbell

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Roles of the WPM…

Client/Media Requests

WPM’s Weather Centre

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Roles of the WPM

• Working with Emergency Management Organizations– Emergency Management Ontario– Municipalities/Townships/Regional Governments– Conservation Authorities– Provincial/National Parks

• Provision of presentations– Summer/winter severe weather– Staying on top of the weather– Review of recent weather in different parts of the province– Explanation of various weather bulletins

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Roles of the WPM – Emergency Exercises

• Provision of mock weather bulletins for emergency exercises of both large scale (i.e. Nov. 2008 Trillium Response – Northwestern Ontario) and small scale (Town of Markham)

– Weather bulletins to “set the tone” in pre-exercise package– Weather bulletins presented in chronological order during

exercise

• Mock bulletins provided for “weather-centric” emergencies as well as other types of emergencies that are complicated by weather

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Roles of the WPM – Storm Damage Surveys

• Tornado vs. Downburst• Rating of Damage on Fujita Damage Scale• Length/Width of Damage• Used to verify our Watches/Warnings• Used to learn more about severe spring and summer storms

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Roles of the WPM

• WPM’s in contact with a variety of clients

• Feedback to EC– What we are doing well– Client concerns– Help shape new products/services

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CANWARN Storm Spotters and Ontario Provincial Police

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CANWARN Training Northwestern Ontario Spring 2011

• Week of June 13th

– June 13 Thunder Bay – 7 PM - McIntyre Building Rm. 195, Confederation College

– June 14 Fort Frances/EMO

– June 15 Kenora

– June 16 Dryden

• Training session about 3 hours long

• No cost involved

• Training includes– How thunderstorms form

– Severe vs. non-severe storms

– Reporting Procedures

– Safety

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Targeted Weather Info

• Emergency Managers and Responders have live access to the Weather Centre 24/7 to access updated weather information related to emergencies caused by weather or complicated by weather

• Unlisted number to access Weather Centre 416 739-4420

• Warning Preparedness Meteorologists (WPM’s)

– Geoff Coulson Toronto – 416 739-4466 – geoff.coulson@ec.gc.ca

– Peter Kimbell Ottawa – 613 949-8284 – peter.kimbell@ec.gc.ca

•

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Risk Communication

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Risk Communication Challenges

• Storms with little or no warning or occurring overnight

• How bad will this storm really be?– Proper descriptive words– Historical context (i.e. worst storm in 5 years…)

• How best to describe potential impacts– Series of canned phrases– Phrases attuned to given situation

• Public’s perception of a given storm– May not match with EC warning criteria– Can differ greatly from community to community– Social media means EVERYONE can (and does) comment

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Risk Communication Challenges

• Weather Centre may not have full appreciation of significance of a given event

– Very localized– Difficult to get precipitation amount estimates

• Example – March 6 to 8 2011 Snowfall in Thunder Bay area

• Official Snow Totals for March 6, 7 and 8 in Thunder Bay between 20 and 25 cm

• Unofficial Snow Totals from surrounding area (Kakabeka Falls, Pearl etc..) on the order of 40 cm or more

Images Courtesy of the WeatherNetwork

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Need to Tap into Social Media

• Twitter• Facebook• Blogs• Discussion Lists• Web Cams• Explosion of information available to be used in real-time

by the Weather Centre to better comprehend weather impacts in local communities

• Need to develop more efficient/effective ways to find, quality assure weather comments and factor them into current and forecast conditions

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Weather Centre of the Future

• Public Desk

• Marine Desk

• Severe Weather Desk

• Social Media Desk?– Information from clients– Information to clients

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2010 Tornado Event – June 6 Leamington

• 4 tornadoes confirmed in the Harrow, Leamington area of Essex county

• 1 F2, 2 F1, 1 F0

• Tornadoes occurred around 3 AM

• Public concerns about notification for nocturnal storms

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Leamington Tornadoes – Public Alerting

If the warnings go out at 2:30 AM…how do I hear about them?

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2010 Tornado Event – June 23 Midland

• Event Occurred between 6:15 and 6:30 PM

• No lead time on Warnings– First warning issued around 6:40 PM

• Hits Trailer Park at south end of Town

• Rated F2 (peak winds 180 to 240 km/h)

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Impacts: Snow Squalls Dec 5 to 9 2010

December 7, 2010West Lorne

From theweathernetwork.com

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Impacts: Snow Squalls Dec 5 to 9 2010

December 8, 2010London

From Twitter

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“402 Snow Squall Event” – Dec 12 to 15 2010

• Multi-day event

• Long-lived whiteout conditions…snow accumulation not the main issue

• Plows had to be pulled off the highway

• Many people used to hearing Snow Squall Warnings

• Most Snow Squall warnings mention whiteouts, blowing snow, large accumulations resulting in dangerous driving conditions

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“402 Event”

• Difficult to impart in the warnings how “out of the ordinary” and particularly dangerous the “402” Event was even as it unfolded

• 1 in 30 year event?

• Full scope of event not understood/ignored by some

• Road barriers moved by motorists so they could continue their trip

• Failure to understand or failure to communicate?

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Groundhog Day Storm – Wed Feb 2 2011

• Not quite what was forecast for much of Southwestern & Southcentral Ontario

• Wiarton, Hamilton, portions of Eastern Ontario had significant snowfall and blowing snow

• But worst was over in many areas before 6 AM Feb 2

• Many cancellations based on storm lasting longer

• Difficult to “pull back” once initial statements out (starting Sunday)

• The words “near-blizzard” and “blizzard” very rare/evocative

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Warning Program Re-engineering• Warning Re-Engineering Program Underway

– Total overhaul to warning system▪ Bulletin preparation – content - significance▪ Bulletin dissemination

• Want to differentiate level of severity of a given storm to key clients and the public

• Vigilance Map…tiered approach to warnings…– Green - OK– Yellow - Warning– Orange – Significant Warning– Red – Rare, Particularly Dangerous Warning

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Warning Impact Statements

• Link impact statements to level of message• Strong tornadoes could cause serious injury or death• Intense snow squalls causing zero visibilities and

extremely dangerous driving conditions• Freezing Rain/High Winds resulting in widespread power

failures• Snow resulting in potential office/school closures• Short duration, high intensity rainfall could produce…

– difficulty driving/hydroplaning– Localized flooding

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Warning Program Re-engineering

• This is a multi-year project

• Will be looking to engage key clients in this process

• Client feedback will be important in assessing/understanding weather impacts and building a database of what type of weather constitute the various weather warning tiers (i.e. green, yellow, orange, red)

• In the tiered warning system the “402” Event would likely have constituted a level red given its relative rarity and severity

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Staying on top of the Weather

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Internet Access to Weather Info

• Weatheroffice.gc.ca– current watches, warnings, advisories, special

weather statements– current conditions, 24 hour trends, 7 day

forecasts– Radar imagery– Much more…

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WarningWarningBattleboardBattleboard

Page automaticallyPage automaticallyrefreshes every 10 refreshes every 10

minutesminutes

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Weatheradio• Continuous broadcast of weather info

• Line of sight broadcast…trees, hills may disrupt signal

• Standby mode Tone Alert when Warnings issued

• Specific Area MEessaging – SAME - Get the Warnings for YOUR area

• Special frequencies…so require a special receiver

• Geoff.Coulson@ec.gc.ca

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E-mails of Svr Wx Watches/Warnings

• E-mail of watches/warnings available from Environment Canada for key decision-makers

• Geoff.Coulson@ec.gc.ca

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Future Weather Trends

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Ontario – 4 Full Seasons of Weather

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More Severe Weather?

• More awareness by the public– 24 Hr news cycle– Numerous shows about severe weather

• More reports– Cameras everywhere– Plus YouTube, blogging, tweeting etc…

• More people in various parts of the province

• More infrastructure (some of it aging…)

• “Perhaps in recent years we are finally getting a better understanding of the amount of summer severe weather that actually occurs in Ontario”

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Climate Change Impacts in the Great Lakes Basin

• Research continues to better understand what changes will occur in the coming decades

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Precipitation

• Increase in intensity and frequency of heavy rainfalls

• Increase in frequency and severity of drought

• More precipitation in the form of rain/freezing rain as opposed to snow during the winter

• Greater chance of “ice storm” type events

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Temperature

• Increase in annual/seasonal temperature

• Increase in number of hot days (T >= 32 Deg C) and heat waves

• Increase in number of heat-related mortalities

• Decrease in number of extreme cold days and extreme minimum temperatures

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Great Lakes

• Increase in water temperatures (increase in lake effect snow?)

• Decline in water levels

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More Extremes?

• Thunderstorms?• Tornadoes?• Snowstorms?

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