Workshop on PWS Component of SWFDP Macao, 15-19 April 2013 Haleh Kootval Chief, Public Weather...

Workshop on PWS

Component of SWFDP

Macao, 15-19 April 2013Haleh Kootval

Chief, Public Weather Services hkootval@wmo.int

Workshop Objectives

To help participants:

• Increase knowledge

• Develop / improve skills

For improved delivery of services to the users and in particular the public

Workshop Outline

Major topics related to delivery of PWS to Public and Key Partners:

• Warning Services• Coordination with Main Partners:

Disaster Management and Media • Media and Communication Skills• Public Education and Outreach• Service Evaluation

To achieve the Objectives of the Workshop New Skills are

needed as shown in the Workshop Programme.

Traditional Forecaster

• Trained in:– Science of meteorology– Observations (instruments, standards,

technology,…)– Forecast models and related technology,

including IT– Operational aspects of forecast production

• All conducted in the familiar environment of a forecast office

PWS Forecaster

• Requires skills and knowledge in delivery of services– Written communication– Communication skills– Public speaking– Presentation skills– Relationship and partnership building (e.g.,

media, DM)– User focus (dialogue,understanding needs),– Public education campaigns

• Often has to work outside forecast office

Challenges for PWS• Forecasting component easier for staff:

Familiar environment of forecast office Education and Training in Forecasting

• PWS component more difficult:Requires knowledge and skills not taught Engagement with users: environment often

not familiar or even hostileRequires understanding others’ points of view

and demands: often unfamiliar

Skills required for PWS Component of SWFDP

National PWS Focal Points

• To assist with the implementation of SWFDP• Bridge the gap between forecasting and

communicating with users• Provide linkages between NMHSs and the

WMO Secretariat• Assist the Secretariat with all the aspects of

the implementation of PWS programme and activities within their respective NMHS

• Secretariat Quarterly Reports to inform NFPs

FloodsService Delivery

The End Result of a SWFDP

• The end result of SWFDP is to improve warnings, forecasts and delivering services to:– Save lives– Protect properties– Help people make better decisions with the

help of science and technology

Serving the different communities of users!

PWS Component of SWFDP• Focus: Use the tools/skills/techniques of

improved forecasting • Address: How to apply those tools to

deliver PWS/warning services to identified user groups

• These two components together are indispensible to ensure SWFDP achieves its objectives

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FloodsA Warning System

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A Warning System• Goal WS: maximizing actions for safety• Requires coordination across many agencies• Components of a warning system:

1. Detection, monitoring and Warning Global, regional, national and local observations of

critical environmental parameters Numerical weather prediction Forecasts on different timescales (nowcasting to several

days)

2. Timely issuing and dissemination of authoritative warning information

3. Communication: complete only after information received and understood (vs Fire and Forget)

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A Warning System4. Risk Analysis and impact assessment

Who and what is at risk and why? What will the impacts be?

5. Mitigation and response: Actions of recipients depend on: Content and clarity of the warning Credibility of issuing organization State of preparedness of receiving authorities (supported by

NMHSs warnings)

6. Scientific knowledge alone not sufficient NMHSs + Hazards Community (other government

organizations + local officials + emergency managers + media + voluntary and Humanitarian organizations + weather sensitive businesses….)

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Essential Elements of a Warning System

• Operates continuously : even if infrequent hazards • Warnings must be timely: to allow decision making• Warning process must be transparent: to media and

public• Expert and trained staff of NMHSs• Warning system must be integrated into larger

socioeconomic, cultural and political system• Flexible: Able to expand to other hazards and

functions• Apolitical – exposes societal vulnerabilities• Community involvement and participation: ensure

meeting community needs

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Role of the government: Legislation

• Governments should as part of effective warning systems and services develop legislation clearly assigning responsibilities and authorities of warning service providers

• With respect to hydrometeorological hazards, the WMO policy of “single official voice” should be covered by legislation.

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Successful Warning Service

A warning service is successful when recipients:

Receive the warning; Understand the information

presented; Believe the information; Personalize the information; Make correct decisions; and, Respond in an adequate manner, Feedback, lessons learnt.

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Multi-Hazard Warning Systems

• Early warning systems are costly

• Many hazards are infrequent

• Many require similar observing, forecasting, communication and dissemination systems

• A multi-hazard warning system is appropriate where there is commonality in the hazards (e.g.,

hurricanes and typhoons, storm surges, tsunamis, heavy rains, floods)

or when hazards occur in a sequence (Extreme heat, poor air quality, health impacts)

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Factors contributing to ineffectual warnings

• Plans can go wrong because of technical factors:

Forecast accuracy: miscalculating onset time, intensity or impacts

Lack of timeliness of warnings and updates Insufficient data “sole official authority” issue in preparing and

issuing warnings-advocated strongly by PWS/WMOContradictory information from different sourcesCommunication and/or dissemination inadequacies

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Factors contributing to ineffectual warnings

• Plans can go wrong because of human factors:

Ineffective, haphazard and ad-hoc coordination with disaster management and the media

Lack of understanding of public’s response: making own assessment

Warning language and contentComplicated, vague, ambiguous, insufficient

advice and call to actionNMHSs staff inadequacyLack of a disaster preparedness plan: SOPLow credibility of NMHS

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FloodsDissemination & Communication

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Dissemination and CommunicationKey Components of WS

• Effective dissemination: Need to cover as large an audience as possible:Backups and redundanciesMust reach Hazards Community

• Media: indispensable partner in warning process;multiple channels: Traditional (TV, Radio, Sirens, Public Address systems,

Coloured Balls and Beacons, Flags)mobile and Social networking (SMS, Web, facebook, twitter)Networking (Ethnic and religious leaders in remote communities)

• Public education: to avoid reinterpretation

Thank you

hkootval@wmo.int