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WRAP Modeling
WRAP Setup Two-pronged approach
Jump start Regional Modeling Center (RMC)
Jump start contractor MCNC/ENVIRON
RMC UCR/ENVIRON
Modeling Approach 1996 MM5 – EPA 1996 NEI modified by WRAP
Mobile 6 look-alike SMOKE (modified to do REMSAD) REMSAD CMAQ (Not Models 3)
CB-IV w/ fast solver
BoundaryConditions
Schematic of Grid Model
Emissions
BoundaryConditions
Chemistry, Transport, Dispersion, Removal
Transport and Dispersion
How is the different from IAS Different model year (1996 versus 1992) Similar platform (grid model) GCVTC used reduced chemistry CMAQ uses full chemistry IAS – transfer coefficients
Assumes linear changes CMAQ run for scenario
Visibility Components bext = bSO4+bNO3+bOC+bEC+bSoil+bCoarse+bRay
bSO4 = 3 f(RH) [(NH4)2SO4] bNO3 = 3 f(RH) [NH4NO3] bOC = 4 [OC] bEC = 10 [EC] bSoil = 1 [Soil] bCoarse = 0.6 [PM10-PM2.5] bRay = 10
Grand Canyon SO4 and OCGRCA SO4
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Modeled Concentration
Am
bie
nt
Co
nce
ntr
atio
n
SO4
GRCA OC
0
1
2
3
4
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0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Observed
Model
GRCA SO4
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Observed
Model
GRCA OC
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Modeled Concentration
Am
bie
nt
Co
nce
ntr
atio
n
OC
Performance Ramifications Soil / Coarse inert – important to vis
Won’t affect other species Inventory model
NO3 smaller component of west visibility NO3 / SO4 tradeoff
HNO3 + NH3 NH4NO3
Dependent on available ammonia NO3 and mobile
Relative Reduction Factors Requires monitoring data at site of concern Allows for model uncertainty
Issues / Challenges SMOKE QA 2 map projections with different models Boundary Conditions Fugitive Dust & Fire 2 projections through SMOKE time
consuming (No further REMSAD)
“Better than BART” Not too much worse than BART? Class I area by area? Average over state? All model days? Only observed days?
Glide Path
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
bex
t 1/
MM Milestones
BART w unc
Linear (Glide Path)
Good News / Bad News RMC completed all SO2 strategy runs
Boundary states not treated consistently Wyoming sources May have adverse impacts in Iceland Enhancing QA on inputs before used
Starting with list of past problems
Summary Modeling technology improved since
GCVTC Still need improvements in science and
inventories, particularly primary emissions One tool in the decision process Based on analysis to date, analysis will
provide useful information
Further Information http://www.cert.ucr.edu/rmc jcv@den.nps.gov (303) 969-2808
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