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Copyright 2004 WiMAX Forum
WiMAX Forum and "WiMAX Forum CERTIFIED are registeredtrademarks of the WiMAX Forum.* All trademarks are the properties of their respective owners.
WiMAX forum update and Asia
Market developmentFerrie Hu Tiejun
Asia Pacific Director WiMAX Forum
Chief Scientist, China Motion Telecom
17 Feb. 2005
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WiMAX Forum Overview
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Copyright 2004 WiMAX Forum
WiMAX Forum and "WiMAX Forum CERTIFIED are registeredtrademarks of the WiMAX Forum.* All trademarks are the properties of their respective owners.
WiMAX Forum Vision
Create a global mass market for deploymentof broadband wireless networks that will
enable portable and mobile users to maintainhigh-speed connectivity wherever they go.
To lead the access anywhere revolution
supporting delivery of data, voice and videoapplications at home, in the office and onthe go.
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Copyright 2004 WiMAX Forum
WiMAX Forum and "WiMAX Forum CERTIFIED are registeredtrademarks of the WiMAX Forum.* All trademarks are the properties of their respective owners.
WiMAX Forum
A non-profit organization comprised of broadband wirelessaccess system manufacturers, component (silicon, RF,antenna) suppliers, software developers and serviceproviders
Promote WiMAX brand identity & WiMAX Forum Certified*equipment to drive interoperability
Based upon IEEE 802.16* and ETSI HiperMAN*standards The WiMAX Forum was founded in April 01
Founded in conjunction with the original IEEE 802.16standard for 10-66 GHz applications
In April 02, the Forum started efforts to cover the IEEE802.16a standard for < 11 GHz
As the 802.16x standard evolves, the WiMAX Forum willevolve with it
Over 230 members and growing rapidly
http://www.wimaxforum.org
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Copyright 2004 WiMAX Forum
WiMAX Forum and "WiMAX Forum CERTIFIED are registeredtrademarks of the WiMAX Forum.* All trademarks are the properties of their respective owners.
Membership Types
Regular Members (Non vendors)
Can participate in all Working Groups
May have limited access
Cannot vote Build WiMAX ecosystem (RF components, test
services, software) Principal Members
Vendors or Service Providers optional
Voting members
* Trademarks and brands property of their respective owners
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Copyright 2004 WiMAX Forum
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WiMAX Forum Membership
Membership RecapDecember 29, 2004
8 Board76 Principal (includes 10 in processing)
155 Regular (includes 29 in processing)
239 Members Total (includes in process)
77 SP (16 processing)64 SM (8 processing)51 SC / CO (5 processing)47 Eco-system Members (10 processing)
Every major SI has
appliedto join:
Samsung, Huawei,
ZTE, Motorola,
Lucent, Alcatel,
Siemens, Nortel,Nokia, and now
Ericsson
Membership Goals:
The WiMAX Forum becomes theleading organization for all
broadbandwireless companies to join.
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System Manufacturers (64)
Adaptix
Airespace, Inc.AirnetAirspan NetworksAlcatelAlvarionAperto NetworksArrayComm*
Axxcelera BroadbandAztech*BeceemCableTV TechnologyCambridge BroadbandCeragonChantry
Chung-Shan instituteCiscoColubrisEricssonFiretide*Gemtek Systems*Goodwin-Europe*
Huawei Technologies
Intracom
Invento NetworksIxiaKyoceraL3 PrimeWaveLG ElectronicsLucentMarconi
Microelectonics Tech.*MotorolaNetopia*NortelNaviniNex-GNextNet Wireless
NokiaOrthogon SystemsP-ComPosdataPronto NetworksProximRadionet
Radwin
Redline Comm.Samsung - do notpublicly announceSanyo Electronics*Shenzhen PowercomSIAE MicroelettronicaSiemens Mobile
SR TelecomStratex NetworksSymbolTelsimaTerabeam WirelessTroposVCom Inc.
VivatoVyyoWaveRiderWiLanZTE Corporation
*new applicant processing (8)
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Service Providers (77)airBandAirNetwork Solutions*
AirpathAirzedAloha PartnersAOL*AltitudeARL Home Comm*AT&TAxtel
Blue Square Tech.*British TelecomBroadband XPress*Cavalier GroupCellcomChina MotionClearwireComba
CovadDeutsche TelekomDigiwebDishnetDSLDistributeleAccess Ltd.EircomEnertel*
EuskaltelFinnet
FirstAve. NetworksFONFrance TelecomFusionIberbandaIDT TelecomInfoQuest*Iqara
Irish BroadbandJSC Start Telecom*Liberia PLC*LightCoreM-WebMetroBridge Networks*MPowerNextel*
NextWaveNextwebNozemaNTTC-NISIC Telecom*ParksPCCWPegesus Comm.*Pipex
Portugal TelecomPowerNet Global
QwestRelianceSBCSC Lithuanian Radio & TV CenterSES AmericomSify LimitedSingTelSkyTel*
SpeakeasySprintSt. Arnaud HoldingsStoneBridgeTATATDC Solutions*TDFTelebria
TelenorTime WarnerTowerstreamTrillionUnitlineUnwiredAustraliaVeriSign*
*new applicant processing (16)
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Component and Semi-conductorManufacturers (51)
InfiNet Wireless LtdSiWorksSkyworks SolutionsSterlite OpticalIntegrated Devices
Intel CorporationIskra TransmissionK & L MicrowaveMitsubishi ElectricPicoChipReigncomRF Integration
RF MagicRohde & SchwartzRuncomSEQUANSSierra Monolithics
SiGe SemiconductorSumitomo Electric USATDK CorporationTelASIC Comm.Telesis
TeleSymTelrad*Theta MicroelectronicsTrackwiseTratec HoldingTRDATriQuint
Urmet*VectronWavesat Inc.Wireless ValleyXilinxZ-Com
Alpha Tech.*Altera*Andrew Corp.AtherosAtmel
Azimuth SystemsCOM DEVComtechAHACTS Comm.Cushcraft Corp.CygnusEuropeanAntennas
FiltronicsFortress Tech.*FujitsuHoplingHuber+Suhner.
*new applicant processing (5)
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LCCMcKinsey- do not publicly announce
MiCOM LabsmmWave TechnologiesMurandiNCITNeotec*Nera Networks*OFDM Forum
Ontap4UPCTELPiepenbrock SchusterPricewaterhouse CoopersRedpine NetworksRFISanjole
Securitas DirectSGS Taiwan Ltd.Shorecliff CommunicationsSpectraSiteWalbellWalt Disney Company not for publicWongs International*
Eco-system Members (47)
3e Technologies*ADT
AgilentAnalog DevicesARRISAzonicB11 Group*Booz,Allen and Hamilton*CETECOM
Compliance CertificationComp USA*Daintree Networks Inc.DellEdelmanEDX WirelessElcoteq
Genius Institute of Technology*InnowirelessInovaware*InvenovaJuniper Networks*KaviKiwi Networks
*new applicant processing (10)
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Copyright 2004 WiMAX Forum
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WiMAX Forum Org Chart
WiMA
X ForumBoard
TechnicalWorking Group
MarketingWorking Group
Service ProviderWorking Group
CertificationWorking Group
NetworkWorking Group
ApplicationsWorking Group
RegulatoryWorking Group
new new
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Copyright 2004 WiMAX Forum
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Global Wireless Standards
IEEE 802.15*Bluetooth
WAN
MAN
LAN
PAN ETSIHiperPAN*
IEEE 802.11*WirelessLAN
ETSIHiperLAN*
IEEE 802.16*2004
WirelessMAN
ETSI HiperMAN* &HIPERACCESS*
IEEE 802.20*(proposed)
3GPP, EDGE(GSM)
IEEE 802.21
IEEE 802.16e*WirelessMAN
v
WiMAX members contributing in these organizations
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WAN WAN MANMAN LANLAN PANPAN
3G3GWCDMAWCDMA
GPRSGPRS
EDGEEDGE
WiMAXWiMAX
802.16802.16
BroadbandBroadband
WiWi--FiFi802.11802.11
UWBUWBandand
BluetoothBluetooth
Wireless Networks Will Co-Exist
The Result: Always Best ConnectedThe Result: Always Best Connected
RFID/RFID/
TAGTAG
****
*Other brands and names are the property of their respective owners.*Other brands and names are the property of their respective owners.
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2005 Deployments: ACCESS With True QoSWiMAX Certified* Fixed Broadband Wireless Access
INTERNETBACKBONE
Telco CoreNetwork or
Private(Fiber)
Network
Non Line ofSight
Point to Multi-point
802.11 802.16
802.16
Point toPoint
BACKHAUL
802.16
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2006 - 2007: Portable/MobileWiMAX Certified Broadband
INTERNETBACKBONE
Telco CoreNetwork or
Private(Fiber)
Network
802.16
Laptop ConnectedThrough 802.16
Line of SightBACKHAUL
802.16 PCIExpress* Form
Factor
802.16
802.16
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2007 2008: Mobile
Wireless Data Access Networks
UrbanRural SuburbsUrban
WiMAX
GSM, CDMA
WiMAX
Wi-FiWi-FiWiMAX
Always Best Connected
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WiMAX Forum Certification Profile
First WiMAX forum CertificatedTM
at end of 2004
Based on IEEE802.16-2004
Second phase profile
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Global View of Spectrum Available forWiMAX
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Speaker Name
Title of Speaker
Primary Bands for 2006 DeploymentsLicensed 2.3, 2.5, 3.3, 3.5 GHzUnlicensed 5 GHz
USA
2.5 & 5 GHz
Central & So America2.5, 3.5 & 5 GHz
EUROPE3.5 & 5 GHz
MIDDLE EASTAFRICA3.5 & 5 GHz
ASIA PACIFIC2.3, 3.3, 3.5 & 5 GHz
Canada2.5, 3.5 & 5 GHz
RussiaPossible: 3.5, 2.5, 2.3?
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Globally Harmonized Spectrum
Cost effective access devices (laptops, handsets, etc.)
Economies of scale for device manufacturing
Divergent RF specs drive device costs up Bands,channelization, mask requirements, power output
Global roamingAbility to take your laptop or handset anywhere, andbe able to connect via a local service provider
Consistent end user experience
Ability to meet demand for higher speed data for more
usersBroadband access available anytime and anywhere
Wireless service prices on par with wired counterparts(xDSL, cable)
Quality of Service for Voice (VoIP)
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WiMAX Spectrum Goals
Sufficient harmonized spectrum to enable avolume global product for laptops with integratedWiMAX
Two licensed bands 2.3-2.7 GHz (notch out 2.4-2.5 GHz)
3.3-3.8 GHz
One license exempt band
5.7255.85 GHz (@ 4W EIRP in manycountries)
5.4-5.725 GHz (@ 1W EIRP per ITU)
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Analyst View of MarketAnalyst View of MarketWiMAX & Proprietary Last mile BWA deploymentsWiMAX & Proprietary Last mile BWA deployments
Key Takeaways:Key Takeaways: 2.5 & 3.5 GHz licensed spectrums
represent biggest opportunity in 06timeframe
5 GHz is largest unlicensed opportunity
Asia Pacific (APAC) region biggest
in 06 followed by EMEA (Europe/MiddleEast/Africa) and NA (North America)
5% 4%22%
28%41%
NA
EMEA
APAC
LAR
ROW
802.16 CPE Shipment by Region802.16 CPE Shipment by Region
2006 Forecast, ABI Research 2003
Projected BWA
Spectrum MixProjected BWA
Spectrum Mix2006 Forecast, Skylight Research 2003
9%
12%
3%
35%
41%
2.4 GHz
2.5-2.8 GHz
3.4-3.8 GHz
5-6 GHz
Others
3.4-3.8 GHz
2.5-2.8 GHz
5-6 GHz
APAC
EMEA
NA
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APAC 5 GHz Expected Allocation
Notes: 1. Japan will consider mid band later; 2. NZ has allocation from 5.725-5.875 GHz for spread
spectrum devices; 3. New Taiwan position is unknown; 4. It is unclear whether Indonesia will support
allocation of the mid band at this time (they may support it as a secondary band).
5.00 6.005.10 5.20 5.30 5.40 5.50 5.60 5.70 5.80 5.90
New Zealand2 /Malay
Thailand
Indonesia4
Australia
Japan1
Singapore
Taiwan3
S. Korea/India
China/HK
5.1505.250 5.350 5.470 5.725 5.8505.825
5.875
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WiMAX Asia development
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China Wireless Regulatory Update
In China , the band 3400 3430 MHzpaired with 3500 3530 MHz (30 MHz x 2)is opened for the implementation of BFWA
service in 32 cities Each operator in China is assigned 10.8MHz x 2 duplex spectrum to roll-out BFWAservice As China is a large market for BFWA,Hong Kong will benefit if the spectrumallocation for BFWA is harmonized withthat adopted in mainland China.
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Hong Kong Wireless Regulatory Update
OFTA set out the candidate frequency band forWiMAX service implementation Proposal 3.400 - 3.600 GHz to fixed service ofBFWA (Broadband Fixed Wireless Access) andFSS (Fixed Satellite Service) Some spectrum in 3.5 GHz available fortemporary basis to conduct trials of BWFA system Balance of spectrum between BWFA and FSS
The sub-band 3.400 3.600 GHz is slightlyused, there is now one assignment for 22
SMATV systems receiving Rajawali Citra TV at3473 MHz from the Palapa C2 satellite.
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Hong Kong Wireless Regulatory Update
OFTA recommends to allocate 10.5 MHz X2 for each operator, as 3.5 MHz channel presector, and 3-sector cell configuration
Also consider other no paired transmit andreceive application, such as UMTS FDD, andOFTA will close monitory the technologydevelopment
OFTA targets to issue an industryconsultation paper on licensing arrangementand regulatory framework of BFWA service inend of 2004, that will invite all 3.5 GHzapplication interested parties
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Singapore Wireless Regulatory Update
On Feb. 2004, IDA announced its intention toassign 2.3 GHz and 2.5 GHz frequency band forWireless Broadband Access, like the USA,
South Korea, Malaysia Marking the spectrum available forcommercial development, they do not belong tothe complete IMT-2000 of 3G family
IDA undertook a public consultation to seekcomment on technical aspects, spectrumallocation, marketing trial framework and Triallicense fees
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Singapore Wireless Regulatory Update
IDA proposed the market trial framework withminor amendments to some T&C for FBO andSBO.
6 months period for market trial license andother 6 months renewable (6+6)
Issues the Guidelines on Submission ofApplication for Market Trial License
S$ 2,500 for the trial license Bankers guarantee is S$ 100,000
For the FBO, they already pay the FBOlicense, the trial license fees will be waived
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South Korea Wireless Regulatory Update
South Korea's Ministry of Information andCommunication (MIC) will select threedomestic telecom carriers for the WiBro
launch by 2006 Domestic mobile-phone operator SKTelecom and fixed-line carriers KT andHanaro are vying for the licenses
South Korea government's WiBro licenserelease schedule should happen in February2005
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South Korea Wireless Regulatory Update
WiBro was first conceived as a Koreantechnology standard called HPi (for high-speed portable Internet), in which KoreasElectronics and TelecommunicationsResearch Institute, SK Telecom and KTCorporation had invested heavily MIC agreeing to use the 802.16e standard forWiBro
MIC plans to transfer all the 2.3GHzfrequency bands owned by Korea Telecom(KT) and Hanaro Telecom to mainly be usedin the portable Internet
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WiBro roadmap
Time Status
1H-04 Standard finalization
Feb-05 License issued
1Q-06 Commercial service launched
Source: ITU, compiled by DigiTimes, December 2004.
South Korea: WiBro uses 2005-2013 forecast (million subscribers)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Subscribers
1.311 3.633 6.732 9.401 10.831 11.408 11.614 11.685 11.708
Source: KISDI, compiled by DigiTimes, December 2004.
South Korea Wireless Regulatory Update
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Taiwan Regulatory Update
Ministry of Transportation and Communications is closemonitory the wireless broadband technology developmentand wireless regulatory development Directorate General of Telecom office is not yet todefinite the technical direction for wireless broadband
application Followed ITU-R recommendation for spectrumarrangement The 3.4-3.6 GHz is already reserve for fix networkoperator for data communication
No fix network operator planned apply wireless last-mileapplication or the public wireless service license For the Taiwan international relationship environment,Taiwan is open for foreign investor and consider the foreigntechnology standard that is follow by investor
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Japan Regulatory Update
MIC ( MPHPT) on study construction of nextgeneration network infrastructures e-Japan priority policy program 2003
- to enable gigabit-class communicationindoors
- to realize super-high-speed wireless accessby fiscal 2010 Spread of broadband service
- Nationwide 83.3%- City 100 % MIC aim of contributing to building mostadvanced mobile IT environment
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WiMAX business modelsWhite paper download from WiMAX forum
www.wimaxwforum.org
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WiMAX Business Case Scenarios
Hypothetical Metro Area Deployment
Combined Urban, Suburban & Exurbanenvironments
Scenarios:1. Mobile Internet Access Only (802.16e)
2. Small/Medium Business Only
3. Residential Internet Access Only
4. Mobile Internet, Small/Medium Business,Residential Internet, WiFi Hot SpotBackhaul & Mobile Backhaul
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Hypothetical Metro Area
Urban Suburban Exurban Total
Area in sq-km ~50 ~100 ~100 ~250
Population ~500,000
Households 100,000 80,000 10,000 190,000
Small/MediumBusinesses
7,000 3,200 200 10,400
# of WiMAXEnabled PCs (5yrs)
35,000 32,000 6,000 73,000
# of WiFi Hot Spots 100 100 20 220
# of Cellular Sites 50 50 10 60
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Scenario 1: Mobile InternetUrban Suburban Exurban Total
BS Deployed 2 3 2 7
Coverage in sq-km 45 107 96 248
Population Covered ~236,000 ~223,000 ~25,000 ~484,000
WiMAX EnabledPCs ~32,000 ~34,000 ~6,000 ~72,000
Mobile InternetSubscribers
2,860 4,635 1,0408,535(12%)
Sensitivity
Mkt/ARPU/Take -50% - +50%
NPV $1.63M $5.45M $9.27M
Payback 3.9 yrs 3.1 yrs 2.7 yrs
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Scenario 1: Mobile Internet
Net Present Value: Metro Area
-$2,000
-$1,000$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Years
NPV$K
5 Yr CAPEX
0%
19%
19%
13%23%
26%
0%
WiMAX CPE
WiMAX BS Equipment
BS Backhaul
Misc BS Equipment
Edge and CoreEquipment
Site Acquisition & Civil
Works
Spectrum License
Mobile Subscribers
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Years
MobileCustomers
OPEX Breakdown
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
Ye ar 1 Ye ar 2 Ye ar 3 Ye ar 4 Ye ar 5
Spectrum Lease Fees (If
Applicable)
Customer/Terminal Site
Lease Fees
Equipment Maintenance
General & Administrative
Equipment Installation
and Commissioning
Network Operations
Sales & Marketing
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Scenario 2: SMEUrban Suburban Exurban Total
BS Deployed 9 8 2 19
Coverage in sq-km 49 96 96 241
Population Covered ~256,000 ~200,000 ~25,000 ~481,000
SME Covered ~6,900 ~3,000 ~200 ~10,100
SME Subscribers 459 288 32779(8%)
Sensitivity
Mkt/ARPU/Take -20% - +20%
NPV $1.69M $3.22M $4.95M
Payback 4.4 yrs 4.1 yrs 3.8 yrs
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Scenario 2: SME
Net Present Value: Metro Area
-$4,000
-$3,000
-$2,000
-$1,000
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Years
NPV$K
Total SME Customers
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Years
SMECustomers
5 Yr CAPEX
7%
20%
20%
14%
9%
30%
0%
WiMAX CPE
WiMAX BS Equipment
BS Backhaul
Misc BS Equipment
Edge and CoreEquipment
Site Acquisition & CivilWorks
Spectrum License
OPEX Breakdown
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
Yea r 1 Yea r 2 Yea r 3 Yea r 4 Yea r 5
Spectrum Lease Fees (If
Applicable)
Customer/Terminal Site
Lease Fees
Equipmen t Maintenance
General & Administrative
Equipment Installation
and Commissioning
Network Operations
Sales & Marketing
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Scenario 3: Residential InternetUrban Suburban Exurban Total
BS Deployed 4 8 3 15
Coverage in sq-km 46 96 104 246
Population Covered ~237,000 ~200,000 ~27,000 ~464,000
ResidencesCovered ~91,000 ~77,000 ~10,000 ~178,000
ResidentialSubscribers
4,120 6,928 1,88112,929(7%)
Sensitivity
Mkt/ARPU/Take -20% - +20%
NPV $3.60M $5.56M $7.51M
Payback 4.1 yrs 3.8 yrs 3.5 yrs
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Scenario 3: Residential Internet
Net Present Value: Metro Area
-$4,000
-$2,000
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Years
NPV$K
Residential Subscribers
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Years
ResidentialSubscribers
OPEX Breakdown
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Spectrum Lease Fees (IfApplicable)
Customer/Terminal SiteLease Fees
Equipment Maintenance
General & Administrative
Equipment Installationand Commissioning
Network Operations
Sales & Marketing
5 Yr CAPEX
39%
13%13%
9%
7%
19%0%
WiMAX CPE
WiMAX BS Equipment
BS Backhaul
Misc BS Equipment
Edge and Core
Equipment
Site Acquisition & CivilWorks
Spectrum License
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Scenario 4: Mixed MarketUrban
Sub-urban
Exurban TotalSubscribers/
Ma
rketPenetration
BS Deployed 16 19 4 39
Coverage insq-km
48 96 94 238
PopulationCovered
~250,000 ~200,000 ~25,000 ~475,000
ResidencesCovered
~96,000 ~77,000 ~9,400 ~182,40013,000(7.2%)
SMECovered
6,700 3,100 200 10,000825
(8.2%)
WiMAXEnabled PCs
33,600 30,800 5,600 70,0008,300(11.9%)
WiFI HotSpots
96 97 19 21258
(27.4%)
Mobile CellSites
48 49 10 10717
(15.9%)
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Scenario 4: Mixed MarketFinancial Data
Net Present Value: Metro Area
-$10,000
-$5,000
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Years
NPV$K
5 Yr CAPEX
23%
18%
18%
13%
4%
24%
0%
WiMAX CPE
WiMAX BS Equipment
BS Backhaul
Misc BS Equipment
Edge and CoreEquipment
Site Acquisition & Civil
Works
Spectrum License
OPEX Breakdown
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Spectrum Lease Fees (If
Applicable)
Customer/Terminal SiteLease Fees
Equipment Maintenance
General & Administrative
Equipment Installationand Commissioning
Network Operations
Sales & Marketing
-$5,000
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
Year
1
Year
2
Year
3
Year
4
Year
5
$K
Gross Annual Revenuein $K
Net Annual Revenue
CAPEX
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Scenario 4: Mixed MarketSubscriber Data
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
0 2 4 6Years
Residential/Mobile
Customers
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
SMECustomers Residential Users
Mobile Subscribers
Total SME
Customers
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
0 2 4 6
Years
Revenuein$K
Gross ResidentialRevenue in $K
Gross BusinessRevenue in $K
Mobile SubscriberRevenue
Gross BackhaulRevenue
Subscriber Breakdown
58.6%
3.7%
37.3%
0.3% 0.1%Residential Users
Total SME Custom ers
Mobile Subscribers
Wi-Fi Hot Spot Backhaul
Sites
Cellular Backhaul Sites
Subscriber Revenue
40.2%
33.8%
23.5%
2.5%Gross ResidentialRevenue in $K
Gross BusinessRevenue in $K
Mobile Subscriber
Revenue
Gross BackhaulRevenue
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Scenario 4: Mixed MarketSpectrum License Impact
Spectrum assumedfor business case:40MHz in the license-exempt 5.8GHz Band
$/MHz/Pop based on56 MHz of spectrumi.e. 2x28 MHzchannels in 3.5 GHzBand
Opening bid for arecent FCC auction(July 04) was$0.0003/MHz/Pop$15.60
$15.80
$16.00
$16.20
$16.40
$16.60
$16.80
$0.00 $0.01 $0.02 $0.03 $0.04
Spectrum License $/MHz/Pop
N
PVin$M
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
PaybackinMonths
NPV in $M
Payback in Mos
$15.6
$15.8
$16.0
$16.2
$16.4
$16.6
$16.8
$- $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50
Spectrum License $/Pop
NPV$M
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
PaybackinMonths
NPV in $M
Payback in Mos
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Market Segment ComparisonMobile Residential SME Mixed
BaseStations
7 15 19 39
CoverageArea
248 246 241 238
Population ~484K ~464K ~481K ~474K
CAPEX $1.32M $4.01M $3.30M $7.77M
$/Sub $154 $310 $4,231 $349
Subscribers 8,535 12,929 779 22,280
5 yrPenetration
11.9% 7.2% 7.7% n/a
NPVNet present value
$5.45M $5.55M $3.22M $16.61M
Payback 3.1 Yr 3.8 Yr 4.1 Yr 3.5 Yr
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Demographic Comparison
NPV: Mobile Internet Market Segment
-$1,000
-$500$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Years
NPV$K Urban
Suburban
Exurban
NPV: SME Market Segment
-$2,000
-$1,000
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Years
NPV$K Urban
Suburban
Exurban
NPV: Residential Market Segment
-$2,000
-$1,000
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Years
NPV$K Urban
Suburban
Exurban
NPV: Mixed Market Segment
-$4,000
-$2,000
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Years
NPV$K Urban
Suburban
Exurban
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Observations & Conclusions
Satisfactory business case with either scenario Lower market risk with Mixed scenario but .. Greater front-end investment
Mobile Internet only segment provides quickestpayback Aided by $0 CPE cost but .. Must deploy metro-wide before offering service
WiFi Hot Spot and Mobile backhaul will not support astandalone business
ARPUs are good averages for US markets but .. Will vary city by city and country by country
Need additional analysis on projected WiMAX-enabled devices over next 5 years Also include Smartphones and PDAs In competition with 3G/4G mobile
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Appendix: Competitive Technologies(Current US Range)
Technology ARPUs
DSL/Cable $37 to $50 per month (if available)
Wi-Fi $30 to $50 per month
SME T1 $630 per month with 1 year term
SME 512 kbps $531 per month with 1 year term
SME Local Access(POTS)
$265 per month with 1 year term
Leased Lines forMobile Backhaul
$200-$300per T1/Mo
$400-$700per T1/Mo
$800-$1200per T1/Mo
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