Yield Tests Sales Forecasting Order Size Adjustments to Order Sizes

• Yield Tests• Sales Forecasting• Order Size• Adjustments to Order Sizes

• Discuss the consequences of over-and underordering.

• Calculate acceptable order sizes, EP weight, and edible product yield.

• Examine and diagnose causes of product loss.• Prepare sales forecasts needed to enhance

the accuracy of purchasing decisions.

Buyers must balance carrying or storage costs (inventory on the shelves) and stockout costs

(irritated, disappointed customers).• Options:– Software applications– Conduct yield tests– Forecast sales– Determine order size

• Step One: Buy enough of the product to conduct two or more tests (or get free samples)

• Step Two: Calculate the item’s as-purchased (AP) weight– Meats, fish and poultry may weigh less then when

purchased due to moisture loss• shrink allowance may be addressed on the

specification sheet)

• Third Step: use the exact service production procedures used in the restaurant– Calculate weight of waste– Subtract from AP weight– Result will be the edible-portion (EP) weight (also

called usable weight or servable weight)– Perform test more than once and average results

• Five Causes of Product Waste– Mise en place – unavoidable cutting/trimming loss– Production loss – shrinkage due to cooking; also

trimming of fat after cooking, discarding of end cuts, etc.

– Pilferage – eating and drinking on the job(cont.)

• Five Causes of Product Waste (cont.)– Unanticipated mistakes – Style of service – all-you-can-eat items, food bars,

free refills on drinks, etc., are hard to average• Analyze a product’s use over two weeks, divide

by number of customers for average portion size

• Best Option: conduct yield tests in your own kitchen

• Second Best Option: Use the edible yield percentages in The Book of Yields or the Chef’s Book of Formulas, Yields and Sizes

• Third Best Option: take the word of your purveyor

A salmon weights 16 lbs (AP) and yields 12 lbs (EP)

What is the yield percentage?

Answer:EP ÷ AP × 100 = Yield Percentage

12 ÷ 16 = .75 × 100 = 75%

• If the AP price for an item is $2.07 per pound and the EP cost is $3.51 per servable pound, what is the yield

percentage?

First, calculate the EP weight:X ounces ÷ $2.07 (AP Price) = 16 ounces ÷ 3.51

OrX ounces = 16 ounces ÷ 3.51 × 2.07

OrX ounces = 9.4 EP ounces (the yield per AP

pound)

Now calculate the percentage yield:9.4 ounces ÷ 16 ounces × 100 = 59%

Answer: Yield percentage is 59%

Alternative method for solving:$2.07 (AP price) ÷ $3.07 (EP cost) × 100 = 59%

• For Regular Sales -- Historical Data– Taken from point-of-sale system (POS)– Menu Mix Percentage or Popularity Index

(calculated by dividing the number of times an item is served in a given time by the total meals served)

Steak Ranch RestaurantOver the past 12 Wednesdays, 19 percent of the

guests ordered prime rib dinners.Next Wednesday, 268 guests are expected.

How many prime rib dinners should be prepared?

Answer:286 × 19% = 55 prime rib dinners

• Plus a few more:– Mistakes– Mix of rare, medium and well-done and end-cut

servings– May have extras because of the number of

servings in a roast

• For Catering Sales – determine what you need, inflate it a bit and prepare the purchase order– Challenge #1 – more guests than guaranteed– Challenge #2 – all-you-can-eat buffet

There is a simple formula:EP amount needed ÷ edible yield percentage

= AP amount to order

Broccoli Example4-ounce servings (EP)75% yield percentage

600 guests4 ounces × 600 = 2,400

2,400 ÷ .75 = 3,200 ounces (3,200 ÷ 16 = 200)Should order just over 200 pounds (AP) to serve a

4-ounce portion of broccoli florets to 600 guests

• As mentioned before: you should always order a bit more than you need– Waste– Pilferage– Can’t always order exact amount you need

because of packaging, may end up ordering more anyway

– Stockout is not in our vocabulary

Wine Example5 ounce serving (EP)

Waste is 10% of each 750 ml bottleEstimated 100 glasses will sell per day

How many bottles should you order in one week?

Wine Example – Answer5 servable ounces ÷ .90 = 5.5 ounces (AP)

25.4 ounces (AP) ÷ 5.5 ounces (AP) = 4.6 drinks per bottle

700 (# of drinks sold per week) ÷ 4.6 = 152.2 bottles

You will need to order 13 cases or 156 bottles of wine for the week

• When ordering, take into account your existing inventory. Subtract what you have on hand that is usable from the order size for a product